ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexandr Binda #552Russia2Kousuke Ogura #821Japan1

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 6-4Mon 14 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexandr Binda · 269 places

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #552
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

Ogura, 30, is a 170cm right-hander. His best singles ranking is No. 641.

Current ranking: #821
Peak ranking: #641
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Binda holds a moderate edge in form and ranking, but the odds on him to win are too short for value.

The best betting angles are on the match having a tiebreak and going over 21.5 total games, given both players' recent competitive, tiebreak-heavy matches.

Context

Binda, ranked 552, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career 59.7% win rate. Ogura, ranked 821, is also right-handed and has a career 48.6% win rate.
Binda's recent hard-court sample shows a 60% win rate and a 70.3% first-serve points won, compared to Ogura's 53.3% win rate and 63.6% first-serve points won. Binda also saves break points at 62.3% versus Ogura's 50%, which could be decisive in tight games. However, Ogura's second-serve points won (51.6%) is higher than Binda's (45.6%), so Ogura may stay competitive if Binda's first serve dips.
- Binda last 15 on hard: 6-4 record, 70.3% first-serve points won, 62.3% break points saved.
- Ogura last 15 on hard: 8-7 record, 63.6% first-serve points won, 50% break points saved.
- Binda's second-serve points won is 45.6%, lower than Ogura's 51.6%.
Ogura has been active on hard courts, playing 15 matches in the last two months. His ranking of 821 reflects a journeyman profile.
Ogura's recent wins include victories over Robin Catry (ranked 587), Daisuke Sumizawa (896), and Tomohiro Masabayashi (867), but he lost to Seongchan Hong (675), Yanki Erel (305), and Omar Jasika (408). Binda, ranked 552, is closer to the level of Ogura's tougher opponents, so Ogura's form may not translate as easily.
- Ogura's last 5 matches: W vs Sumizawa (896), L vs Hong (675), W vs Catry (587), L vs Erel (305), L vs Jasika (408).
- Binda's ranking is 552, higher than most of Ogura's recent wins.
Binda has a 7-8 record in his last 15 matches, with wins mostly against players ranked outside the top 500.
Binda's recent losses include Tung-Lin Wu (370), Khumoun Sultanov (466), Lucas Poullain (343), and Dimitar Kuzmanov (382), all higher-ranked than Ogura. His wins came against players ranked 569 or lower. This pattern indicates Binda can handle lower-ranked opponents but may be vulnerable to stronger players, and Ogura's ranking of 821 places him in the lower tier.
- Binda's last 5 matches: W vs Uesugi (897), L vs Wu (370), W vs Haliak (880), W vs Hsieh (unranked), L vs Sultanov (466).
- Ogura's ranking is 821, lower than most of Binda's recent opponents.
The only previous meeting between these players was in July 2021 on hard court.
Ogura won 6-2 7-6(4) in that match, but both players have evolved significantly since then. Binda's current ranking is higher, and his recent hard-court stats are stronger, so the historical result carries limited weight.
- 2021-07-14: Ogura def. Binda 6-2 7-6(4) on hard court.
- Binda's current ranking (552) is higher than Ogura's (821).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alexandr Binda

1.36fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Binda's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a moderate edge over Ogura.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Binda's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a moderate edge over Ogura.
- Binda last 15 on hard: 6-4 record, 60% sets won, 54.6% games won
- Ogura last 15 on hard: 8-7 record, 48.6% sets won, 47.7% games won
- Binda ranking 552 vs Ogura 821; Binda has stronger recent hard-court results
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive matches with extended games, supporting a higher total games line.
- Binda last 15 average duration 114.7 minutes; Ogura 107.9 minutes
- Binda last 15 hard: 54.6% games won, matches often competitive
- Ogura recent matches include multiple tiebreaks and three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often exceed 9.5 games due to tiebreaks and close scorelines.
- Binda recent hard matches: 7-6, 6-3; 7-6, 6-2; 6-3, 6-1
- Ogura recent hard matches: 7-6, 7-6; 7-6, 6-3; 6-4, 6-4
- Both players have frequent tiebreaks and close opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's slightly better recent set-winning rate on hard courts supports a modest first-set advantage.
- Binda first-set win conversion career 88%
- Ogura first-set win conversion career 88%
- Binda last 15 hard: 60% sets won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Binda career tiebreak win pct 48%, recent matches include tiebreaks
- Ogura career tiebreak win pct 49%, recent matches include multiple tiebreaks
- Both players have played several tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's high double fault rate pushes the combined total near the over line.
- Binda last 15 double faults per match: 3.7
- Ogura last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates slightly exceed the 5.5 line, though Ogura's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Binda last 15 aces per match: 4.0
- Ogura last 15 aces per match: 1.7
- Combined average aces per match: 5.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 7-6(4)Alexandr Binda#552vKousuke Ogura#821Jul 14, 2021

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alexandr Binda

7W 8L

7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

6-3 6-2#466Khumoun Sultanov

7-5 7-5#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-2#775Mert Naci Turker

6-4 6-2#569Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-4—S Mert Ozdemir

7-5 6-4#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 5-7 6-2#841Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

7-5 6-3—Aaron Gil Garcia

5-7 6-3 6-4#896David Poljak

6-2 3-6 6-2#514Reda Bennani

Kousuke Ogura

8W 7L

7-6(3) 7-6(7)#896Daisuke Sumizawa

7-6(2) 6-3#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#587Robin Catry

6-1 2-6 6-2#305Yanki Erel

6-3 6-3#408Omar Jasika

3-6 6-3 10-7#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 6-3—Tzu-Yuan Tseng

6-3 6-1#518Hiroki Moriya

7-6(3) 6-2#408Omar Jasika

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#293Matthew Dellavedova

7-5 6-2#882Duckhee Lee

1-6 6-0 2-1 ret.#880Mikalai Haliak

3-6 7-5 3-0 ret.#892Yuta Kikuchi

7-5 6-1—Taiki Takizawa

6-3 6-2#821Jeremy Beale

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexandr BindaBinda

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Kousuke OguraOguraKO

Alexandr Binda carries the stronger recent form — Kousuke Ogura's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.5%+5.2pp57.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.6%+3.0pp63.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1543.6%+8.0pp51.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.0+2.31.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.71.8 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.2%+3.9pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.3%—41.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.6%+3.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%+1.8pp48.4%

Serve · 3–2

62.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.2pp57.3%

66.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp63.6%

43.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp51.6%

4.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.31.7

3.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

41.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—41.5%

53.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp48.4%