ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexandr Binda #552Russia2Fajing Sun #326China1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Thu 17 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFajing Sun · 226 places

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #552
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Binda's superior recent hard-court form and return game make him a value underdog against Sun, with a 58% model probability vs 31.3% implied odds.

The match is likely to be competitive, favoring over 21.5 total games and under 5.5 double faults.

Context

Binda, ranked 548, has built a 26-17 hard-court record in 2026 and is coming off three straight wins in this tournament. Sun, ranked 324, has a 25-20 hard-court record this year but has been less consistent in recent weeks.
Binda's recent hard-court form is stronger, with wins over lower-ranked opponents and a higher win percentage in his last 12 matches. Sun has struggled against top-200 players, losing to several in straight sets, which suggests Binda may be able to control the baseline rallies. However, Sun's higher ranking and experience could still make this competitive.
- Binda's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), with 8-4 on hard courts (66.7%).
- Sun's last 15 overall record: 6-9 (40%), with 6-8 on hard courts (42.9%).
- Binda has won his last three matches in Guangzhou, all on hard courts.
- Sun lost to Jie Cui (ranked 447) and Chun Hsin Tseng (ranked 208) in his last two hard-court events.
Sun's return points won percentage on hard courts is 36.5% over his last 14 matches, well below the tour average for Challenger level. Binda's first serve points won on hard courts is 70.9% in his last 12 matches.
If Sun cannot improve his return numbers, Binda's serve could be a major weapon. Binda's high first-serve points won percentage suggests he can win free points, while Sun's low return percentage indicates he may struggle to create break opportunities. This could lead to a match with few breaks and potentially tiebreaks.
- Sun's return points won on hard courts: 36.5% (382/1047) in last 14 matches.
- Binda's first serve points won on hard courts: 70.9% (348/491) in last 12 matches.
- Sun's overall return points won in last 15 matches: 36.0% (396/1099).
Binda, 548th in the ATP rankings, came through qualifying to reach this second-round match in Guangzhou.
He has already played three matches this week, which adds some accumulated court time and shortens his recovery before facing Sun.
- The Guangzhou draw lists Binda as a qualifier, records his first-round win over Aoran Wang, and places him against Sun in the second round.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/BucharestCanal Teniscanaltenis.com · 16 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Binda's stronger recent hard-court form and return game give him the edge despite the ranking gap.
- Binda last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Sun 6-9 (40%)
- Binda last 15 hard record 8-4 (66.7%), Sun 6-8 (42.9%)
- Binda last 15 return points won 41.7%, Sun 36.0%
- Binda ranking 548 vs Sun 324, but recent form favors Binda
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting over 21.5 games.
- Binda last 15 average games per match 21.7, Sun 22.7
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
- Sun's last match went 3 sets with 33 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Competitive first sets are likely given both players' serve hold rates.
- Binda last 15 hard average set games 9.7, Sun 10.0
- Sun's last match first set went 7-5
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's slightly better first-set conversion and recent momentum support a first-set win.
- Binda first set win conversion 89% career, Sun 87%
- Binda last 15 hard first serve points won 70.9%, Sun 67.7%
- Binda has won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexandr BindaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages are below the line, favoring under.
- Binda last 15 double faults per match 3.3, Sun 1.5
- Combined average double faults per match 4.8
- Sun's low double fault rate is notable
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Alexandr Binda

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#891Aoran Wang 6-4 4-6 6-4#828Kousuke Ogura 7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#350Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

6-3 6-2#431Khumoun Sultanov

7-5 7-5#337Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-2#820Mert Naci Turker

6-4 6-2#654Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-4—S Mert Ozdemir

7-5 6-4#365Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 5-7 6-2#832Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#579Matyas Fuele

7-5 6-3—Aaron Gil Garcia

Fajing Sun

6W 9L

7-5 3-6 7-5#176Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-4#447Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-0 7-5#846Hanyi Liu

6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#350Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#248Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#416Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-3 7-6(4)#177Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-1#416Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#339Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-3#63Arthur Gea

6-4 6-3#420Ozan Baris

6-1 6-2#206Braden Shick

6-3 7-6(1)#181Andre Ilagan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexandr BindaBinda

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Fajing SunSunFS

Alexandr Binda carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.5%—62.9%

1st Serve Won68.6%—68.0%

2nd Serve Won47.6%+3.8pp51.4%

Aces / Match5.0+1.53.5

Double Faults / Match3.31.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+5.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.7%+1.6pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved54.8%+4.3pp59.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+2.4pp48.8%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

62.5%1st Serve In—62.9%

68.6%1st Serve Won—68.0%

47.6%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp51.4%

5.0Aces / Match+1.53.5

3.3Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+5.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

39.7%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp38.1%

54.8%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp59.1%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+2.4pp48.8%