ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Jake Delaney #365Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Thu 17 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 205 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #365
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic and Delaney have identical recent hard-court records, but Delaney's stronger serve and break point saving make him a live underdog.

Avoid Tomic at 1.25; instead, consider Delaney +3.5 games, over 21.5 total games, and over 15.5 aces.

Context

Tomic, 33, is the higher-ranked player at No. 185 and won his Guangzhou opener 6-0, 6-2 in 56 minutes. He took a medical timeout after the first set on 15 September, one day before this match.
The timeout leaves his physical condition unresolved for this second-round match. He finished the match and won the second set 6-2, which limits the concern, but the cause of the timeout is unknown and could affect his movement or stamina against Delaney. This is a monitored current issue rather than a confirmed injury.
- The interruption occurred during Tomic's first-round match on 15 September, one day before this second-round fixture.
- He completed the match and won the second set 6-2.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 03:18 · Europe/BucharestTomic Crushes Opponent in 56 Minutes to Open Guangzhou Campaignen.tennistemple.com · 15 Sep 2026
Tomic, 33, is a former world No. 17 now ranked 185 and has played mostly Challenger events this year. Delaney, 27, is ranked 351 and has built his recent results on hard courts.
Their last-15 hard-court records are identical at 10-5, and both win about 52% of total points. Tomic has a slightly better return game (37.8% vs 35.1% return points won), while Delaney has a stronger first serve (77.4% vs 73.9% first-serve points won). This suggests a close match where neither player has a clear edge.
- Tomic last 15 on hard: 10-5 record, 51.3% total points won, 37.8% return points won, 73.9% first-serve points won.
- Delaney last 15 on hard: 10-5 record, 51.8% total points won, 35.1% return points won, 77.4% first-serve points won.
Delaney's recent hard-court sample shows a first-serve percentage of 66.6% and a first-serve points won rate of 77.4%.
Tomic's first-serve points won is 73.9%, and his second-serve points won is 49.4% compared to Delaney's 52.1%. Delaney also averages 9.9 aces per match versus Tomic's 6.3. This could give Delaney more free points and pressure Tomic's return game.
- Delaney first-serve points won: 77.4% vs Tomic 73.9%.
- Delaney second-serve points won: 52.1% vs Tomic 49.4%.
- Delaney aces per match: 9.9 vs Tomic 6.3.
Tomic's recent hard-court return numbers show a 37.8% return points won rate.
Delaney's return points won is 35.1%, and his break point conversion is 38.8% compared to Tomic's 38.9%. Tomic also saves fewer break points (61.2% vs Delaney's 74.4%), so the return advantage may be offset by Delaney's stronger serve under pressure.
- Tomic return points won: 37.8% vs Delaney 35.1%.
- Tomic break points saved: 61.2% vs Delaney 74.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.25fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's higher ranking and slightly better return game give him a narrow edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Tomic's higher ranking and slightly better return game give him a narrow edge, though Delaney's stronger serve keeps it close.
- Tomic last15 record 10-5 (66.7%) on hard, Delaney 10-5 (66.7%) on hard
- Tomic ranking 185 vs Delaney 351
- Tomic first serve points won 73.9% vs Delaney 77.4%
- Tomic return points won 37.8% vs Delaney 35.1%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, and their similar form suggests a competitive contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Tomic average 23.1 games per match in last 15
- Delaney average 24.1 games per match in last 15
- Both players have 66.7% win rate, suggesting competitive matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's stronger serve and break point saving suggest he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid bet.
- Delaney's average games per match 24.1 vs Tomic's 23.1
- Delaney's first serve points won 77.4% vs Tomic's 73.9%
- Delaney's break points saved 74.4% vs Tomic's 61.2%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJake Delaney +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average around 10 games, making Over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Tomic first set average 9.8 games in last 15
- Delaney first set average 10.1 games in last 15
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high first-set conversion rates, but Tomic's recent form and ranking edge slightly favor him in the opener.
- Tomic first set win conversion 85% career
- Delaney first set win conversion 88% career
- Tomic won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's high ace rate combined with Tomic's solid serving suggests the total aces will likely exceed 15.5.
- Tomic averages 6.3 aces per match in last 15
- Delaney averages 9.9 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 16.2 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 5 double faults combined, making Under 5.5 a slight lean.
- Tomic averages 2.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Delaney averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 5.0 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's recent matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and both players have competitive sets, increasing the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Tomic tiebreak win percentage 57% career
- Delaney tiebreak win percentage 49% career
- Delaney has played 7 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Tomic is heavily overpriced at 1.25 despite only a narrow edge in recent form and serve/return metrics.

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#230Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#319Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#387Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#411Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#138Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#341Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#495Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#214Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#140Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#451Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#760Matthew Forbes

Jake Delaney

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-4#538Hikaru Shiraishi

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#221Pavel Kotov

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(6)#248Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#467Koki Matsuda

6-0 6-4#549Hyeon Chung

6-2 6-4#438Moerani Bouzige

6-3 7-6(2)#787Scott Jones

6-2 6-0—Jeremy Zhang

6-4 1-6 6-4#827Joshua Charlton

7-5 6-3#268Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-2 6-3—Duje Markovina

7-5 6-3—Taiki Takizawa

6-2 7-6(4)—Zachary Viiala

6-4 7-6(4)#896Daisuke Sumizawa

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(9)#749Matthew Hulme

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Jake DelaneyDelaneyJD

Jake Delaney carries the stronger recent form — Bernard Tomic's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In63.4%+3.2pp66.6%

1st Serve Won73.9%+3.5pp77.4%

2nd Serve Won49.4%+2.7pp52.1%

Aces / Match6.3+3.69.9

Double Faults / Match2.10.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.8%+2.7pp35.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted38.9%—38.8%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+13.2pp74.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.3%—51.8%

Serve · 1–4

63.4%1st Serve In+3.2pp66.6%

73.9%1st Serve Won+3.5pp77.4%

49.4%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp52.1%

6.3Aces / Match+3.69.9

2.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

37.8%Return Pts Won+2.7pp35.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.9%Break Pts Converted—38.8%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+13.2pp74.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won—51.8%

Bernard Tomic

Jake Delaney

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Bernard Tomic

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Bernard Tomic @ 1.25

Bernard Tomic

Jake Delaney

Stat Battle