ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Matej Dodig #257Croatia2Enrico Dalla Valle #321Italy1

Sets 6-7 · 6-2 · 7-6Fri 11 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatej Dodig · 64 places

Matej Dodig

Croatia

Most of his recorded singles wins have come on clay. He reached career-high No. 199 in March 2026 and qualified for the Hagen main draw with two straight-set wins.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #199 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Dodig's superior clay form and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents make him the likely winner, but the odds offer no value.

The match could feature tight sets and a tiebreak, with the over on total aces and under on double faults as potential low-confidence angles.

Context

Dodig, 254th, has built his ranking on clay with 116 career wins on the surface and a 24-10 record in 2026.
Dodig's 86.7% win rate in his last 15 clay matches is well above Dalla Valle's 60%. Dodig also wins a higher share of points on serve and return, which should give him control of rallies in this quarter-final.
- Dodig last 15 on clay: 13-2 record, 80% sets won, 58.5% games won.
- Dalla Valle last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 60.6% sets won, 55.6% games won.
- Dodig's first serve points won is 77.5% vs Dalla Valle's 75.2%.
- Dodig's return points won is 39.4% vs Dalla Valle's 37.3%.
Dodig, 22, won the Como Challenger title on 6 September and then played Genoa singles on 8 and 10 September. Dalla Valle, 24, had his 6 September qualifying match cancelled and began his singles campaign on 8 September.
Dodig enters this quarter-final with a heavier immediate match load, having completed a title run and two additional singles matches in the past five days. Dalla Valle has played two matches in the same period, giving him more recovery time. This difference may affect late-match stamina, but Dodig's recent clay form remains strong.
- Dodig's Como title came at the end of the 30 August-6 September event.
- Dalla Valle's scheduled 6 September qualifying match against Maximo Zeitune was cancelled.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 03:48 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Como Lake Challenger resultswww.atptour.com · 6 Sep 2026Sofascore — Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maximo Zeitunewww.sofascore.com · 6 Sep 2026
Dalla Valle, 333rd, has played 552 career matches and often relies on long clay-court battles.
The 22-minute average difference per match could matter in a best-of-three quarter-final, especially if the match extends to a third set. Dodig's shorter matches may leave him fresher for the decisive moments.
- Dalla Valle average match duration last 15: 107 minutes.
- Dodig average match duration last 15: 84.5 minutes.
- Dalla Valle has played three three-set matches in his last five, while Dodig has played two.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Matej Dodig

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Dodig's stronger recent clay form and higher-quality wins give him a clear edge in this quarter-final.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Dodig's stronger recent clay form and higher-quality wins give him a clear edge in this quarter-final.
- Dodig last 15 on clay: 13-2 record, 80% sets won, 58.5% games won
- Dalla Valle last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 60.6% sets won, 55.6% games won
- Dodig has won 8 of last 9 matches, including wins over Dellien (140) and Varillas (234)
- Dalla Valle lost to Dellien (140) and Roca Batalla (346) in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown the ability to extend matches, and the competitive matchup suggests a total above 21.5 games.
- Dodig last 15 average games per match: 19.9
- Dalla Valle last 15 average games per match: 21.0
- Dodig has played 3 three-set matches in last 15
- Dalla Valle has played 4 three-set matches in last 15
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tight first sets, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Dodig first set average games in last 15: 9.3
- Dalla Valle first set average games in last 15: 9.7
- Dodig has played 4 tiebreaks in first sets in last 15
- Dalla Valle has played 5 tiebreaks in first sets in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's recent pattern of starting fast and his strong first-set conversion rate support a first-set win.
- Dodig first set win conversion career: 85%
- Dalla Valle first set win conversion career: 88%
- Dodig has won first set in 6 of last 7 completed matches
- Dalla Valle lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatej DodigEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are below 3.5, making the under a reasonable prediction.
- Dodig averages 1.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Dalla Valle averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 2.8
- Both players have relatively low double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total above 10.5 aces is likely in this match.
- Dodig averages 6.3 aces per match in last 15
- Dalla Valle averages 4.7 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 11.0
- Both players have strong first-serve points won percentages (77.5% and 75.2%)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in frequent tiebreaks, and the competitive nature of the match increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Dodig has played 6 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Dalla Valle has played 7 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Dodig tiebreak win percentage career: 57%
- Dalla Valle tiebreak win percentage career: 46%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Matej Dodig

13W 2L

5-3 ret.#140Hugo Dellien 6-3 4-0 ret.#291Franco Agamenone

6-3 7-6(5)#234Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-0#424Johan Nikles 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3#318Max Schoenhaus 6-7(1) 7-6(3) 7-5#428Henry Bernet 6-2 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-2 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

2-2 ret.#578Saba Purtseladze

6-4 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-1#444Denis Yevseyev

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-5 6-3#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 7-5#448Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(7) 6-2#838Jannik Opitz

Enrico Dalla Valle

9W 6L

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#147Stefano Travaglia 6-2 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro 7-6(2) 6-2#346Oriol Roca Batalla 6-3 6-4#494Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatej DodigDodig

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Enrico Dalla ValleValleEV

Matej Dodig carries the stronger recent form — Enrico Dalla Valle's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In66.0%+1.3pp64.7%

1st Serve Won77.5%+2.3pp75.2%

2nd Serve Won58.2%+2.5pp55.7%

Aces / Match6.3+1.64.7

Double Faults / Match1.10.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.4%+2.1pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.1%+4.4pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved51.4%+11.6pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.3%+1.8pp52.5%

Serve · 5–0

66.0%1st Serve In+1.3pp64.7%

77.5%1st Serve Won+2.3pp75.2%

58.2%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp55.7%

6.3Aces / Match+1.64.7

1.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

39.4%Return Pts Won+2.1pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp40.7%

51.4%Break Pts Saved+11.6pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won+1.8pp52.5%