ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Enrico Dalla Valle #321Italy2Stefano Travaglia #140Italy1

Sets 6-7 · 6-1 · 6-4Thu 10 Sept 2026, 13:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefano Travaglia · 181 places

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

Clay is his stated favourite surface. He reached career-high No. 60 in February 2021 and enters Hagen as the No. 6 seed.

Current ranking: #140
Peak ranking: #60 · 2021
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Dalla Valle has a strong edge over Travaglia with a 3-1 H2H lead and superior recent clay form (9-6 vs 4-8).

Back Dalla Valle on the moneyline at 1.73 for a 14.2-point value edge, and consider Dalla Valle -3.5 games or a straight-set win.

Context

Dalla Valle, 333rd, is the lower-ranked player but has dominated this matchup recently.
He won 7-6(3) 6-1 in their most recent meeting on June 30, and also won in straight sets in 2024. Travaglia has not beaten him since 2016, so Dalla Valle enters with a clear psychological edge.
- Dalla Valle leads the head-to-head 3-1, with all three wins on clay.
- Most recent: Dalla Valle won 7-6(3) 6-1 on June 30, 2026.
- Travaglia's only win came in 2016.
Dalla Valle has been more consistent on clay recently, with a 60% win rate in his last 15 matches.
Travaglia has struggled, winning only 33% of his last 15 matches and losing his last three clay matches before this week. Dalla Valle's superior recent form gives him an edge in this matchup.
- Dalla Valle: 9-6 record in last 15 matches (60% win rate).
- Travaglia: 5-10 record in last 15 matches (33% win rate).
- Travaglia lost his last three clay matches before this week.
Travaglia's serve has been vulnerable recently, especially on clay.
Dalla Valle's higher break point save rate and better first-serve points won (76% vs 71%) suggest he can hold serve more effectively. Travaglia's lower save rate could lead to more break opportunities for Dalla Valle.
- Travaglia: 56% break points saved in last 15 matches.
- Dalla Valle: 62% break points saved in last 15 matches.
- Dalla Valle wins 76% of first-serve points vs Travaglia's 71%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dalla Valle's superior recent clay form and dominant H2H edge make him the clear favorite.
- H2H: Dalla Valle leads 3-1, including a 7-6(3) 6-1 win on clay in June 2026.
- Last 15 on clay: Dalla Valle 9-6 record, 55.7% games won; Travaglia 4-8 record, 47.0% games won.
- Dalla Valle last 15 overall: 60% win rate, 52.7% total points won; Travaglia 33.3% win rate, 49.1% total points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players holding serve reasonably well points to a total above 21.5 games.
- Dalla Valle last 15 average 20.3 games per match; Travaglia 22.7.
- H2H matches averaged 18.5 games, but recent form suggests longer rallies.
- Both players have similar return points won (37.4%) and moderate break point conversion.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's superior form and H2H dominance support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Dalla Valle won last H2H by 6 games (13-7).
- Dalla Valle games won percentage 55.7% vs Travaglia 47.0% on clay.
- Travaglia has lost 8 of last 12 clay matches, often by wide margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEnrico Dalla Valle -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's strong serving and H2H pattern support taking the opening set.
- Dalla Valle first set win conversion 88% career; Travaglia 86%.
- Dalla Valle won first set in 3 of last 4 H2H meetings.
- Dalla Valle first serve points won 76.2% last 15 vs Travaglia 70.6%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's stronger second serve and momentum from first set favor him in set 2.
- Dalla Valle won second set in last H2H 6-1.
- Dalla Valle second serve points won 54.9% vs Travaglia 47.7% on clay.
- Travaglia's second set performance often declines after losing first set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcome is likely given Dalla Valle's edge and Travaglia's recent struggles.
- Dalla Valle won 3 of 4 H2H matches in straight sets.
- Travaglia's last 15 clay matches: 8 losses, 6 in straight sets.
- Dalla Valle's break point conversion 41% vs Travaglia's 36.1% on clay.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault average is near the line, but under 3.5 is slightly favored.
- Dalla Valle averages 1.6 double faults per match last 15; Travaglia 2.1.
- Combined average 3.7 double faults per match.
- Clay surface may increase double faults slightly, but both are relatively consistent.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages suggest a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Dalla Valle averages 4.7 aces per match last 15; Travaglia 5.4.
- Combined average 10.1 aces per match.
- Clay surface typically reduces aces, but both players have decent serve power.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Enrico Dalla Valle has been highly reliable when projected to win

Enrico Dalla Valle has fulfilled 9 of 12 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 64%, with an expected 7.7 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. All three misses came as losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent in those matches.

Recent evidence for Enrico Dalla Valle12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Mili Poljicak won

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

1 Jul·Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

1 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·55%

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

55%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

Head-to-Head

3-1 (4 meetings)

W7-6(3) 6-1Enrico Dalla Valle#333vStefano Travaglia#147Jun 30, 2026

W6-2 6-3Enrico Dalla Valle#333vStefano Travaglia#147Jul 17, 2024

W6-1 6-4Enrico Dalla Valle#333vStefano Travaglia#147Mar 21, 2024

L6-4 6-4Enrico Dalla Valle#333vStefano Travaglia#147Jul 20, 2016

Enrico Dalla Valle dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Enrico Dalla Valle

9W 6L

6-2 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro 7-6(2) 6-2#346Oriol Roca Batalla 6-3 6-4#494Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

7-6(3) 6-1#147Stefano Travaglia

Stefano Travaglia

5W 10L

6-4 7-5#229Stefano Napolitano

6-4 3-6 6-3#196Harry Wendelken

0-6 6-4 4-0 ret.#329Nicolas Kicker

7-5 6-3#254Matej Dodig

6-3 6-1#320Max Hans Rehberg

7-6(5) 6-2#60Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-4 6-2#49Mariano Navone

6-4 6-2#263Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-1#333Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(7) 6-4#248Yi Zhou

7-5 7-6(3)#176Luka Mikrut

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3#209Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(5) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#562Pierluigi Basile

7-5 7-6(5)#388Jacopo Vasami

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEnrico Dalla ValleValle

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Stefano TravagliaTravagliaST

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Stefano Travaglia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1564.8%+7.3pp57.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1576.2%+5.6pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.9%+4.8pp50.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.7+0.75.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.60.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.4%—37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.0%+7.7pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1561.9%+5.9pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.7%+3.6pp49.1%

Serve · 4–1

64.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+7.3pp57.5%

76.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.6pp70.6%

54.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.8pp50.1%

4.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.75.4

1.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

41.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.7pp33.3%

61.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp49.1%