ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Enrico Dalla Valle #321Italy2Gabriele CrivellaroItaly0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Tue 8 Sept 2026, 15:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Gabriele Crivellaro

Italy

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the structured form and match data as the main context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Dalla Valle is the clear favorite with better serve and break-point stats, but the odds offer no value on the moneyline.

Consider totals markets like over 21.5 games and over 7.5 aces, as the match is expected to be competitive.

Context

Dalla Valle, ranked 333, is a clay-court specialist with a career win percentage of 54.7% and 204 career clay wins.
His recent 9-6 record on clay is respectable, but his losses have come against players ranked 128-346, while his wins have mostly been against lower-ranked opponents. This suggests he may be vulnerable against a player who can match his level, but Crivellaro's ranking is unknown, making it hard to assess the matchup.
- Dalla Valle's last 15 matches on clay: 9 wins, 6 losses.
- Losses came against opponents ranked 128, 140, 169, 262, 266, and 346.
- Wins came against opponents ranked 147, 207, 257, 301, 410, 494, and unranked players.
Crivellaro is an unranked Italian player with a career win percentage of 43.6% and 22 career clay wins.
His 9-6 record on clay is identical to Dalla Valle's, but his wins have come against opponents ranked 482-1731, while his losses have been against players ranked 480-898. This suggests he may be less tested against higher-level competition, but his recent form is still competitive.
- Crivellaro's last 15 matches on clay: 9 wins, 6 losses.
- Wins came against opponents ranked 482, 521, 796, 898, 899, 1731, and unranked players.
- Losses came against opponents ranked 480, 531, 595, 751, 841, and 898.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Enrico Dalla Valle

1.05fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Dalla Valle's superior serve and break-point resilience on clay give him a structural edge over Crivellaro.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Enrico Dalla Valle

1.12fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Dalla Valle's stronger serve and higher first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Dalla Valle's superior serve and break-point resilience on clay give him a structural edge over Crivellaro.
- Last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%) vs Crivellaro 9-6 (60%), but Dalla Valle has higher ranking (333 vs unranked).
- Last 15 clay: Dalla Valle 55.9% games won vs Crivellaro 51.9%.
- Dalla Valle first serve points won 76.8% vs Crivellaro 68.8%.
- Dalla Valle break points saved 62.8% vs Crivellaro 54.6%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive with both players holding serve reasonably well, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Dalla Valle last 15 average games per match: 20.3 (304 games / 15 matches).
- Crivellaro last 15 average games per match: 21.5 (322 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games won percentages (55.9% vs 51.9%), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be close, with both players capable of holding serve, leading to over 9.5 games.
- Dalla Valle last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (based on recent matches).
- Crivellaro last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on recent matches).
- Both players have similar first set competitiveness.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Dalla Valle's stronger serve and higher first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Dalla Valle first set win conversion career 88% vs Crivellaro 86%.
- Dalla Valle last 15 first serve points won 76.8% vs Crivellaro 68.8%.
- Dalla Valle last 15 return points won 37.6% vs Crivellaro 42.4%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crivellaro's higher double fault rate pushes the combined total close to 4.5, making over 4.5 a reasonable bet.
- Dalla Valle last 15 double faults per match: 1.5.
- Crivellaro last 15 double faults per match: 2.9.
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.4.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average a combined 8.3 aces per match, making over 7.5 aces likely.
- Dalla Valle last 15 aces per match: 4.7.
- Crivellaro last 15 aces per match: 3.6.
- Combined average aces per match: 8.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be close, and both players have shown a tendency to play tiebreaks, making a tiebreak likely.
- Dalla Valle tiebreak win percentage career: 47%.
- Crivellaro tiebreak win percentage career: 60%.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Crivellaro's recent form and serve metrics are too weak to justify backing him at this price.

Previous match context available

Enrico Dalla Valle

9W 6L

7-6(2) 6-2#346Oriol Roca Batalla 6-3 6-4#494Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

7-6(3) 6-1#147Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-1#301Petr Nesterov

Gabriele Crivellaro

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#751Manuel Mazza

6-7(2) 6-4 6-0—Leonardo Primucci

5-7 6-4 6-2#898Marcello Serafini

7-5 6-4—Nik Mikovic

7-6(5) 6-2#531Marcel Zielinski

6-1 6-1—Radovan Michalik

6-1 6-2#480Carlo Alberto Caniato

3-6 6-1 7-6(0)#521Federico Arnaboldi

6-3 6-2#898Marcello Serafini

7-6(5) 6-1#899Lorenzo Rottoli

7-6(4) 6-3#1731Justin Schlageter

6-3 6-0#841Adrian Andreev

6-2 6-2#796Gabriele Pennaforti

6-4 6-4#482Lorenzo Carboni

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#595Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEnrico Dalla ValleValle

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Gabriele CrivellaroCrivellaroGC

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Gabriele Crivellaro's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In65.2%+4.4pp60.8%

1st Serve Won76.8%+8.0pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won55.2%+5.6pp49.6%

Aces / Match4.7+1.13.6

Double Faults / Match1.51.4 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.6%+4.8pp42.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.7%+0.9pp40.8%

Break Pts Saved62.8%+8.2pp54.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.0%+1.7pp51.3%

Serve · 5–0

65.2%1st Serve In+4.4pp60.8%

76.8%1st Serve Won+8.0pp68.8%

55.2%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp49.6%

4.7Aces / Match+1.13.6

1.5Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

37.6%Return Pts Won+4.8pp42.4%

Pressure · 2–0

41.7%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp40.8%

62.8%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp54.6%

Points · 1–0

53.0%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.3%