PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Oriol Roca Batalla #342Spain2Enrico Dalla Valle #321Italy0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Wed 2 Sept 2026, 09:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEnrico Dalla Valle · 21 places

Oriol Roca Batalla

Spain

Spanish clay-court specialist with a career-high singles ranking of No. 150 in August 2024. His 2026 recorded match volume has been entirely on clay.

Current ranking: #342
Peak ranking: #150 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Dalla Valle's superior recent form, serve, and recent H2H win on clay make him the favorite.

Back Dalla Valle to win at 2.20, with value against the market. Expect a competitive match, but Dalla Valle should prevail.

Context

Dalla Valle, 27, is ranked 333 and has a 66.7% win rate over his last 15 matches, all on clay.
His recent form is clearly better than Roca Batalla's 46.7% win rate over the same span. Dalla Valle also leads in sets won (68.8% vs 48.5%) and games won (58% vs 51.7%), suggesting he has been more consistent in closing out matches.
- Dalla Valle last 15: 10-5 record, 68.8% sets won, 58% games won.
- Roca Batalla last 15: 7-8 record, 48.5% sets won, 51.7% games won.
The two players have met five times, with Dalla Valle leading 3-2 overall.
Dalla Valle's straight-set win in their most recent match, just over two months ago on clay, gives him a psychological edge and a tactical blueprint. However, Roca Batalla won their previous clay meeting in 2024, so the matchup remains competitive.
- H2H: Dalla Valle leads 3-2 overall, 2-2 on clay.
- Most recent: 2026-06-12, Dalla Valle won 7-6(2), 6-1.
Dalla Valle retired at 4-0 down in the second set against Juan Bautista Torres on August 11.
He returned to action on September 1 and won comfortably, suggesting the retirement was not a serious long-term issue. However, the quick turnaround between matches could still be a minor factor.
- 2026-08-11: Dalla Valle retired vs Torres (7-6(2), 4-0 ret.).
- 2026-09-01: Dalla Valle won 6-3, 6-4 vs Mcdonald.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Dalla Valle's stronger recent form, better serve numbers, and recent H2H win on clay give him the edge.
- Last 15 overall record: Dalla Valle 10-5 (66.7%) vs Roca Batalla 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 clay games won: Dalla Valle 58.0% vs Roca Batalla 51.7%
- H2H: Dalla Valle leads 3-2, won most recent meeting 7-6(2) 6-1 on clay in June 2026
- Dalla Valle last 15 first serve points won 77.3% vs Roca Batalla 73.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roca Batalla's ability to stay competitive in games makes the +3.5 handicap a reasonable cover.
- Roca Batalla last 15 games won 51.7%, Dalla Valle 58.0%
- H2H matches have been competitive with several straight-set but close scorelines
- Roca Batalla has won 2 of 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOriol Roca Batalla +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and H2H history suggests potential for extended sets.
- Roca Batalla last 15 average match duration 107.8 minutes, Dalla Valle 99.2 minutes
- Roca Batalla last 15 games won 51.7%, Dalla Valle 58.0%
- H2H matches have varied: 6-1 6-3, 6-3 6-2, 6-4 7-6(2), 6-3 1-6 6-1, 7-6(2) 6-1
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set could be closely contested given both players' serve effectiveness.
- Recent H2H first set went to tiebreak 7-6(2)
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
- Roca Batalla last 15 first serve points won 73.8%, Dalla Valle 77.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's superior recent set-winning rate and strong first-set conversion support taking the opener.
- Dalla Valle first set win conversion career 88% vs Roca Batalla 86%
- Dalla Valle last 15 sets won 68.8% vs Roca Batalla 48.5%
- Dalla Valle won first set in most recent H2H 7-6(2)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double fault rates are low, making under 3.5 likely.
- Dalla Valle last 15 double faults per match 1.5, Roca Batalla 1.7
- Combined average double faults per match 3.2
- Both players have relatively low double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest a moderate total, with Dalla Valle's serve being the primary driver.
- Dalla Valle last 15 aces per match 4.7, Roca Batalla 3.3
- Combined average aces per match 8.0
- Dalla Valle height 196cm likely contributes to serve power
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets are plausible given both players' competitive recent form and H2H history.
- Roca Batalla career tiebreak win percentage 53%, Dalla Valle 47%
- Recent H2H included a tiebreak in first set (7-6(2))
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Enrico Dalla Valle has been highly reliable when projected to win

Enrico Dalla Valle has fulfilled 9 of 12 recent win projections, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 64%, with an expected 7.7 fulfilled predictions, indicating performance slightly above expectation. All three misses were losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent in those matches.

Recent evidence for Enrico Dalla Valle12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Mili Poljicak won

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

1 Jul·Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

1 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·55%

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

55%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

Head-to-Head

2-3 (5 meetings)

L7-6(2) 6-1Oriol Roca Batalla#346vEnrico Dalla Valle#333Jun 12, 2026

W6-3 1-6 6-1Oriol Roca Batalla#346vEnrico Dalla Valle#333Jul 3, 2024

L6-1 6-3Oriol Roca Batalla#346vEnrico Dalla Valle#333Jun 18, 2024

W6-3 6-2Oriol Roca Batalla#346vEnrico Dalla Valle#333Jun 7, 2024

L6-4 7-6(2)Oriol Roca Batalla#346vEnrico Dalla Valle#333Feb 8, 2024

5 total meetings

Previous match context available

Oriol Roca Batalla

7W 8L

6-1 6-1#175Zdenek Kolar

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#207Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#576Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4#866Yanaki Milev

7-6(6) 6-3#809Niklas Guttau

6-4 6-0—Oliwier Sterniczuk

6-4 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#562Pierluigi Basile

6-1 6-2#378Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 7-5—Samuele Seghetti

7-6(2) 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

6-3 6-4#589Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-3#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

6-2 7-6(1)#221Chun Hsin Tseng

Enrico Dalla Valle

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#494Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

7-6(3) 6-1#147Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-1#301Petr Nesterov

6-2 3-1 ret.#521Federico Arnaboldi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOriol Roca BatallaBatalla

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Enrico Dalla ValleValleEV

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Oriol Roca Batalla's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.9%+7.1pp65.0%

1st Serve Won73.8%+3.5pp77.3%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+8.3pp56.9%

Aces / Match3.3+1.44.7

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.4%+1.6pp38.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.5%+2.6pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved53.9%+13.6pp67.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.2%+2.8pp54.0%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

57.9%1st Serve In+7.1pp65.0%

73.8%1st Serve Won+3.5pp77.3%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+8.3pp56.9%

3.3Aces / Match+1.44.7

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.5

Return · 1–0

40.4%Return Pts Won+1.6pp38.8%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted+2.6pp41.1%

53.9%Break Pts Saved+13.6pp67.5%

Points · 0–1

51.2%Total Pts Won+2.8pp54.0%