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IFK NorrkopingOstersund

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 12:0031 Oct, 12:00

8Probabilities8Priced8Edges76%Strongest

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Leaders against third: Norrköping's home scoring meets an Östersund side with eight draws in 14 tracked matches.

Norrköping are the likelier winners and 2.30 is a price worth taking; Norrköping to score twice or more at 2.15, both teams to score: no at 2.15, Östersund held to one goal or none at 1.53 and 10 or more corners at 1.62 also stand up. The 1.25, 1.45 and 1.36 quotes do not.

Context

Both defences are strong in the tracked sample (0.57 goals conceded per match each) and no availability issues are confirmed, so league position and recent form shape the game without a specific new factor.

Östersund have already conceded twice to Norrköping this season, and their recent matches have been tight, with three clean sheets in the last six tracked. One June result proves little on its own, and Östersund's 12 league draws this season show they are hard to beat rather than easy to break down.
- 21 June 2026, Superettan: Östersunds FK 0-2 IFK Norrköping, goals from Ryan Nelson and Christoffer Nyman.
Östersund have yet to score before half-time in any of their seven tracked away matches, so the opening 45 minutes should be played largely in Norrköping's half. Norrköping average 1.29 first-half goals per match, and the risk to that pattern is their own early finishing rather than an Östersund goal.
- 14 tracked competitive matches, 26 July to 24 October 2026: 0.14 first-half goals per match, two in total.
- Seven tracked away matches: 0.00 first-half goals per match.
- Second-half output is 1.0 goals per match overall, so the scoring arrives after the break.
That shot volume is why Norrköping scoring twice looks the likelier outcome, and why Östersund's back line faces a busier afternoon than their 0.57 goals conceded per tracked match suggests. The shot sample is only four home matches, and Oddevold held Norrköping to a 0-0 draw at home on 13 September.
- Eight tracked home matches from 19 July to 20 October 2026: 5 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats, 2.25 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per match, five clean sheets.
- Shot data covers four of those matches: 21.75 shots and 10.0 on target per match, against 8.25 shots and 3.0 on target for opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Norrköping's league-leading home record and scoring output give them the stronger path to a win, though Östersund's draw habit keeps it from being clear-cut.
- Norrköping are 1st with 62 points from 28; Östersund are 3rd with 48.
- Norrköping are unbeaten in their last 14 tracked competitive matches (11W 3D).
- At home Norrköping have 5W 3D 0L in 8 tracked matches, scoring 2.25 goals per game.
- Östersund have drawn 8 of 14 tracked competitive matches and remain unbeaten.
BetBugs · Match WinnerIFK NorrkopingMarket price2.30Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Östersund rarely score before half-time and Norrköping usually start strongly at home, so a home lead or level score at the break is the most likely state.
- Norrköping average 1.29 first-half goals and concede 0.29 in tracked matches.
- Östersund average 0.14 first-half goals overall and 0.00 in their away split.
- Östersund's recent first halves include 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 0-0.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfIFK Norrkoping or DrawMarket price1.25Estimated chance76%

Goals5 outcomes · top 71%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is low enough, especially Östersund's, to make under 1.5 first-half goals the likelier state.
- Östersund have scored 0.14 first-half goals per tracked match and 0.00 per away match.
- Norrköping's first-half matches average 1.57 total goals; Östersund's average 0.50.
- Nine of the last 12 combined tracked first halves had 1.5 goals or fewer.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.45Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Östersund's away output is modest and Norrköping's defence is strong, so holding them to 0–1 goals is the central case.
- Östersund average 1.14 goals per tracked match overall and 1.00 in their away split.
- In their away split they average 5.6 shots and 1.8 shots on target.
- Norrköping concede only 0.57 goals per tracked match and 0.63 at home.
- Östersund scored two or more in only one of their last six tracked matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalOstersund under 1.5Market price1.53Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Norrköping's home shot volume and scoring rate make two or more home goals the more likely side of this line.
- Norrköping average 2.50 goals per tracked match and 2.25 in their home split.
- At home they average 21.8 shots and 10.0 shots on target.
- They scored two or more in five of their last six tracked matches.
- Östersund concede 0.57 goals per tracked match, but 0.71 in their away split.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalIFK Norrkoping over 1.5Market price2.15Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Östersund's low-scoring profile and Norrköping's defensive record point more to a controlled game than a shootout.
- Norrköping's tracked matches average 3.07 total goals; their home split averages 2.88.
- Östersund's tracked matches average 1.71 total goals; their away split also averages 1.71.
- Östersund have kept three clean sheets in their last six tracked matches.
- Five of Östersund's last six tracked matches finished under 3.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.36Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Norrköping's clean-sheet rate and Östersund's modest scoring make at least one blank the more likely both-teams-to-score outcome.
- Norrköping have eight clean sheets in 14 tracked matches and five in eight at home.
- Östersund have seven clean sheets in 14 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in only three of Norrköping's eight home matches tracked.
- Östersund average 1.14 goals per tracked match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.15Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 outcome · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' corner numbers are high enough, and recent totals have regularly cleared 9.5, making over the more likely side.
- Norrköping average 6.75 corners for and 5.75 against in eight tracked matches.
- At home Norrköping average 8.25 corners for and 3.75 against.
- Östersund average 6.9 corners for and 3.1 against in ten tracked matches.
- Ten of the last 12 combined tracked matches had 10 or more total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.62Estimated chance70%