Orebro SK0Ostersund1

HT 0–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 17:05 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 9–6On targetOn target 1–1CornersCorners 2–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 00:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Östersund or Draw is the most likely outcome (72% estimated), but the value is thin at 1.45.

The top betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50, with a +15 point edge driven by Örebro's late defensive frailties. Avoid Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.30, as Östersund's slow starts make that price unattractive.

Context

Orebro SK are 15th in Superettan with 20 points from 21 matches, three points behind 13th-placed IFK Varnamo.
They have lost four of their last five league games, including a 3-1 home defeat to IFK Varnamo on August 3. Their home record is weak with three wins, three draws, and four losses in ten matches. This match is important for their fight against relegation.
- Orebro SK are 15th with 20 points, three points behind the relegation playoff spot.
- They have lost four of their last five league matches.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 10 games.
Ostersund are 4th in Superettan with 35 points from 21 matches, three points behind 3rd-placed Falkenbergs FF.
They are unbeaten in their last five league matches with three wins and two draws. Their away form is solid with three wins, five draws, and three losses in 11 away games. A win here would strengthen their promotion push.
- Ostersund are 4th with 35 points, three points behind the promotion playoff spot.
- They are unbeaten in their last five league matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Their away record is 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses in 11 games.
Orebro SK have scored 9 goals in 10 home league matches this season.
They have failed to score in three of their last five home games, including a 0-0 draw with Oddevold on July 27. Their overall home record shows three wins, three draws, and four losses. This lack of home scoring is a concern against a solid Ostersund defense.
- Orebro SK have scored 9 goals in 10 home league matches.
- They failed to score in three of their last five home games.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
Ostersund have lost only three of 11 away league matches this season.
They are unbeaten in their last four away games, with two wins and two draws. Their away record is three wins, five draws, and three losses. This solid away form gives them confidence against a struggling Orebro side.
- Ostersund have lost only 3 of 11 away league matches.
- They are unbeaten in their last 4 away games (2 wins, 2 draws).
- Their away record is 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Combined averages of 2.8 goals per match support Over 2.5, but the edge is marginal and the market is efficient.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Orebro's early scoring tendency is offset by Ostersund's defensive first-half record, making the odds unattractive.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's superior league position and away form give them the edge, though Orebro's home advantage and desperation keep the probability moderate.
- Ostersund are 4th with 35 points, while Orebro are 15th with 20 points.
- Ostersund away record: 3W-5D-3L, Orebro home record: 3W-3D-4L.
- Orebro have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOstersundEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's poor home form and Ostersund's solid away record make the away side not losing highly likely.
- Ostersund have lost only 3 of 11 away matches this season.
- Orebro have won only 3 of 10 home matches.
- Orebro's home goal difference is -4.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOstersund or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orebro's strong first-half scoring record contrasts with Ostersund's slow starts, but the overall quality gap keeps confidence low.
- Orebro lead at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Ostersund trail at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Orebro average 1.1 first-half goals vs Ostersund's 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOrebro SKEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's superior fitness and tactical adjustments may give them the edge in the second half.
- Ostersund have a better second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Orebro tend to fade, conceding 1.8 goals per match overall.
- Ostersund's away resilience often shows after the break.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOstersundEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of Orebro starting well but fading could lead to a draw at half-time and an Ostersund win at full-time.
- Orebro often lead at half-time but lose full-time (e.g., vs IFK Varnamo).
- Ostersund have come from behind to draw or win in several away games.
- Orebro's second-half defensive record is poor.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/OstersundEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages suggest a match with at least three goals, supported by Orebro's leaky defense.
- Orebro average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match.
- Ostersund average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net, and Orebro's defensive vulnerabilities increase the chance of both scoring.
- Orebro have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Ostersund have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Orebro have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's tendency to score early, combined with Ostersund's occasional first-half concessions, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Orebro average 1.1 first-half goals per match.
- Ostersund average 0.3 first-half goals per match.
- Orebro have led at half-time in 47% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as Orebro chase the game, leading to more goals.
- Orebro average 1.8 goals conceded per match, many in second halves.
- Ostersund average 1.3 goals scored per match.
- Recent H2H matches have seen multiple second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the attacking nature of the match could push the total over 9.5.
- Orebro average 4 corners per match, Ostersund average 5.1.
- Combined average corners: 9.1.
- Recent matches show variability but often exceed 9 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are capable of testing the goalkeeper, and the open nature of the game could lead to more shots on target.
- Orebro average 4.4 shots on target per match.
- Ostersund average 3.4 shots on target per match.
- Combined average: 7.8, but recent matches have seen higher totals.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and recent H2H intensity could lead to more cards than average.
- Orebro average 1.2 yellow cards per match.
- Ostersund average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average: 2.6, but derby-like intensity may increase cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%