Landskrona BoIS1Varbergs BoIS1

HT 0–0Tue 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–186%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 12–12On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 10–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth against fifth in Superettan, three points and two places apart, with Landskrona's home record and Varberg's away record both reading 5W-5D-3L and both sides on 45 league goals.

Goals for both teams looks the likeliest shape of the game, and at 1.62 it is the one reviewed price that clears its implied mark, by a hair rather than a margin. The other reviewed prices ask for more than the form supports.

Context

Landskrona have won the latest instalment of a series that has produced goals for both sides in every listed meeting.
Landskrona travel well enough to have taken that June fixture, which sits badly with any assumption that home advantage decides this one. Varberg's response has been a 0-0 with Helsingborg and a 1-1 at Östersunds FK, so the same venue pattern need not repeat. The previous meeting at Landskrona, in October 2025, went the home side's way 2-1.
- 22 June 2026, Superettan: Varbergs BoIS 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
- The result is the most recent of five meetings in the record, the earliest dated 22 July 2024.
Landskrona's matches have been goal-heavy rather than cagey, at both ends.
Both teams scored in 9 of those 14 matches and Landskrona kept only three clean sheets, so the games have rarely been settled by one side alone. That profile sits behind the both-teams-to-score angle, but it also means Landskrona have conceded regularly. Varberg's 0-0 on 19 October is the obvious counterweight to reading this as a guaranteed open game.
- 14 competitive matches tracked, 28 June to 17 October 2026: 1.71 goals for, 1.29 against.
- Both teams scored in 9 of the 14 matches; Landskrona kept 3 clean sheets.
Varberg's away performances have been about surviving pressure rather than controlling territory.
Those three matches, spread from 5 September to 10 October 2026, include a 2-1 win at Norrby despite an 8-19 shot deficit, so the pattern has not always cost them. The sample is thin and covers only part of an eight-match away split. It does suggest Landskrona can expect a share of the ball and set-piece situations at home.
- Three away matches with shot data, 5 September to 10 October 2026: 18.0 opponent shots and 11.3 opponent corners per game.
- Varberg averaged 8.7 shots and 5.3 corners in those same three matches, winning 2-1 at Norrby on 14 September 2026.
The table separates these teams by three points and almost nothing else.
Identical goal totals after 27 rounds and matching away records make this one of the tighter matchups in the division. Varberg's edge comes from two extra wins overall rather than any attacking advantage. Landskrona's home split of 5W-5D-3L with 20 scored and 14 conceded is the one clear home-side lean in the numbers.
- Standings as of 26 October 2026: Landskrona 27 played, 12W-7D-8L, 45-32, 43 points, fifth.
- Varberg 27 played, 13W-7D-7L, 45-34, 46 points, fourth; both away records read 5W-5D-3L.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Landskrona BoIS over 0.5

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

−6.7ppshort

Landskrona have been regular scorers at home and Varberg's away record includes few clean sheets, so a home goal is well supported.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 82%

−5.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding numbers are low, and Varberg's recent first halves have rarely produced goals for both sides.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

1.22fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 82%

−13.0ppshort

Landskrona's home first-half scoring edge and Varberg's low first-half away output make the home side or a half-time draw the likely first-half result.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

1.35fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 74.1%

−8.1ppshort

Landskrona have lost only three of 13 home league games and have home advantage in a close top-five match, so the home-or-draw double chance is supported.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.50fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 66.7%

−5.7ppshort

Both sides' full-match corner totals sit around or above the line, and Varberg's away matches have been especially busy.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Landskrona's home first-half scoring edge and Varberg's low first-half away output make the home side or a half-time draw the likely first-half result.
- Landskrona's home first-half average is 1.00 goal for and 0.43 against.
- Varberg's away first-half average is 0.63 for and 0.50 against.
- Varberg have scored only nine first-half goals in 14 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Landskrona have lost only three of 13 home league games and have home advantage in a close top-five match, so the home-or-draw double chance is supported.
- Landskrona's home league record is 5W-5D-3L, with only three home defeats in 13.
- Varberg's away league record is also 5W-5D-3L, but they sit only three points above Landskrona.
- Landskrona have scored 20 goals in 13 home league matches while conceding 14.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance66%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Landskrona have been regular scorers at home and Varberg's away record includes few clean sheets, so a home goal is well supported.
- Landskrona scored in 12 of 14 tracked competitive matches and in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Varberg's away split has only two clean sheets in eight matches, conceding 1.25 goals per game.
- Landskrona average 1.57 home goals per match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLandskrona BoIS over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding numbers are low, and Varberg's recent first halves have rarely produced goals for both sides.
- Landskrona average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.71 against; Varberg average 0.64 and 0.43.
- Varberg's away first-half split is 0.63 scored and 0.50 conceded.
- Varberg's last six league first halves all had at most one total goal.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance77%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams score often and the recent head-to-head record has consistently produced goals for both sides.
- Landskrona's matches had both teams scoring in 9 of 14; Varberg's in 8 of 14.
- All five recent head-to-head meetings had both teams scoring.
- Landskrona's last six league matches had both teams scoring in five; Varberg's away split had both scoring in 5 of 8.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Landskrona's recent games have been consistently high-scoring and the head-to-head has usually cleared three goals.
- Landskrona's tracked matches average 3.00 total goals; Varberg's average 2.79.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5 goals.
- Landskrona's last six league matches all produced at least three goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides' full-match corner totals sit around or above the line, and Varberg's away matches have been especially busy.
- Landskrona average 6.17 corners for and 4.33 against in six matches, a 10.5 total.
- Varberg average 6.00 for and 7.29 against in seven matches, a 13.3 total.
- Varberg's away matches average 16.7 total corners across three tracked matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance61%