Kispest Honved0Debrecen2

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 9–19On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Two mid-table sides three points apart, with identical home and away league records, meet with the draw a live result.

Debrecen arrive off a 3-0 win and have scored in six straight; Honvéd have scored in all ten competitive matches tracked. The draw at 3.6 is the one quoted price that offers something; the 2.4 on either side, 1.25 on either team to win, 1.53 on both teams scoring and 1.6 on over 2.5 do not.

Context

Honvéd took three points from a direct relegation meeting at Nyíregyháza on 17 October, a result that left the hosts bottom of NB I. That is the frame for this fixture: a promoted side's autumn points tend to be banked at home, and dropping them here would pull Honvéd back into the group they just escaped. The same match showed Honvéd winning without the ball, which is the shape they are likely to need again against a Debrecen side that scored three against Zalaegerszeg a day later. Relegation framing in October is provisional, though; a single result still moves several clubs.
- Honvéd won the 17 October NB I meeting at Nyíregyháza, a match between two sides in the bottom part of the table, and the hosts ended the day last.
- It was Honvéd's second win in five league matches, the other a 1-0 home victory over Zalaegerszeg on 29 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Honvéd went up, then changed coach, and a club legend has now framed that as a break with the basic rule of not changing a winning team. His second point — that defending, not the departed manager, is the weakness — lands on this fixture, because Debrecen scored three against Zalaegerszeg on 18 October. Read it as a pressure gauge on a promoted club's environment rather than a selection signal: the remarks come from a former player, not from the dressing room or the board. Nothing in them alters who is available for this game.
- Nagy Antal's objection to the dismissal of Feczkó Tamás after promotion rests on the principle of not changing a winning team.
- He identified Honvéd's defence as the team's main problem.
- Feczkó had taken Honvéd up and was then dismissed.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 07:32 · Europe/BucharestOrigo: Nagy Antal reaction to Honvéd's situationwww.origo.hu · 17 Oct 2026
Honvéd have 6 goals for and 6 against at home in four league games; Debrecen have 7 and 7 on the road in four. The symmetry sits alongside the table gap — Debrecen seventh on 13 points from ten, Honvéd tenth on 10 from nine — so the away side's edge is seasonal rather than venue-specific. It is the clearest argument that this stays a close game in which a share of the points remains live.
- Honvéd's home league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4 games, 6 goals for and 6 against.
- Debrecen's away league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4 games, 7 goals for and 7 against.
- Debrecen are seventh with 13 points from 10 league matches; Honvéd are tenth with 10 from 9.
Debrecen also averaged 3.8 shots on target away against 7.3 conceded, so their away points have come without control of the game. Their away league record of one win, two draws and one loss with 7 goals for and 7 against shows they have survived it. Honvéd average 13.9 shots per match in the overall sample, so the volume of chances at the home end is the number to watch.
- Debrecen's 7 away matches tracked run from 30 July to 10 October 2026; 6 of them carry shot data.
- Averages across those 6: 12.8 shots and 3.8 on target, against 21.0 shots and 7.3 on target conceded.
- Their away league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4 games, 7 goals for and 7 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 80%

−9.0ppshort

Both teams have enough first-half scoring to make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kispest Honved or Debrecen

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

−12.0ppshort

Honvéd have home advantage and scored in every sampled match, while Debrecen's away record is only level. Debrecen have the stronger season record and more recent scoring, giving them a clear share of the match-winner chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65.4%

−3.4ppshort

Honvéd score regularly and Debrecen have found the net in every recent game, so both teams scoring is likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Both teams' venue splits and Debrecen's recent scoring point to enough goals for over 2.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Honvéd have home advantage and scored in every sampled match, while Debrecen's away record is only level.
- Honvéd's home league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss with 6 goals for and 6 against.
- Debrecen's away league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss with 7 goals for and 7 against.
- Honvéd have scored in all 10 competitive matches in the sample.
- Honvéd won the most recent head-to-head 2-1 at Debrecen in October 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKispest HonvedEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Honvéd often reach half-time level and Debrecen's first-half scoring is not high enough to make an away lead dominant.
- Honvéd's last six matches included three 0-0 first halves.
- Honvéd have a first-half goal difference of +7 over 10 competitive matches; Debrecen's is -2 over 15.
- Debrecen's last six first halves produced one 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Honvéd have home advantage and scored in every sampled match, while Debrecen's away record is only level. Debrecen have the stronger season record and more recent scoring, giving them a clear share of the match-winner chance.
- Honvéd's home league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss with 6 goals for and 6 against.
- Debrecen's away league record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss with 7 goals for and 7 against.
- Debrecen are seventh with 13 points from 10 league matches; Honvéd are tenth with 10 from 9.
- Debrecen have scored in 11 of 15 competitive matches and in all of their last six.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKispest Honved or DebrecenEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Honvéd's first-half scoring and defensive numbers at home give them the largest single first-half lead chance. Honvéd often reach half-time level and Debrecen's first-half scoring is not high enough to make an away lead dominant.
- Honvéd average 1.0 first-half goal for and 0.3 against in 10 competitive matches.
- At home Honvéd average 1.0 first-half goal for and 0.25 against.
- Honvéd's last six matches included three 0-0 first halves.
- Honvéd have a first-half goal difference of +7 over 10 competitive matches; Debrecen's is -2 over 15.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKispest Honved or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams' venue splits and Debrecen's recent scoring point to enough goals for over 2.5.
- Honvéd home matches average 3.0 total goals; Debrecen away matches average 3.57.
- Debrecen's last six matches averaged 4.33 total goals.
- Four of Debrecen's last six matches had four or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Honvéd score regularly and Debrecen have found the net in every recent game, so both teams scoring is likely.
- Honvéd have both scored and conceded in 7 of 10 competitive matches, including 3 of 4 at home.
- Debrecen have both scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Debrecen scored in all of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams have enough first-half scoring to make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Honvéd's first-half matches average 1.3 total goals; Debrecen's average 1.47.
- Debrecen scored in the first half of five of their last six matches.
- Honvéd have scored in the first half in three of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half venue numbers and Debrecen's recent games point to at least two goals after the break.
- Honvéd home second halves average 1.75 total goals (0.5 for, 1.25 against).
- Debrecen away second halves average 2.14 total goals (0.71 for, 1.43 against).
- Debrecen's last six matches produced 13 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's corner volume and their away matches push the total toward the over.
- Honvéd's home matches average 10.3 total corners; Debrecen's away matches average 13.5.
- Debrecen average 7.14 corners and concede 5.07 per match.
- Honvéd's recent tracked corner totals average 11.0; Debrecen's average 11.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's away games and recent shot volume make a total above 28.5 more likely.
- Honvéd's overall matches average 28.5 total shots; Debrecen's average 32.0.
- Debrecen's away matches average 33.8 total shots.
- Debrecen's recent tracked matches average 32.0 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 28.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Debrecen's shots-on-target volume, especially away, makes over 9.5 the better side.
- Honvéd's overall matches average 9.25 total shots on target; Debrecen's average 10.43.
- Debrecen's away matches average 11.17 total shots on target.
- Debrecen's recent tracked matches average 13.8 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent yellow-card totals for both teams sit above 4.5, supporting an over.
- Honvéd's matches average 4.13 yellow cards; Debrecen's average 4.57.
- Honvéd's recent five tracked yellow-card totals average 5.0; Debrecen's average 5.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%