Athletic Club MG2Londrina2

HT 1–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 17–14On targetOn target 4–8CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 33: Athletic, 15th and beaten twice in a row, host a Londrina side on a four-match losing run, five points from safety and under interim coaching after Rogério Micale's dismissal.

Londrina's single away win in seven makes Athletic the likelier winner. Athletic to win at 1.91, over 2.5 goals at 2.15 and both teams to score at 2.0 all offer something; the first-half prices do not.

Context

Londrina's board acted after a fourth straight league defeat, replacing Rogério Micale and his assistants Joelton Urtiga and Dênis Alves three days after the loss at Avaí. The trip to Minas Gerais will be run by an interim group, leaving the starting shape and in-game decision-making uncertain for a side already fighting relegation. The move is the 22nd coaching change in 32 rounds of this Série B, so an immediate tactical reset is not guaranteed. The open question for this fixture is who organises and selects the team at Arena Sicredi.
- Rogério Micale and assistants Joelton Urtiga and Dênis Alves left Londrina on 10 October 2026, three days after a 2-1 loss at Avaí on 7 October.
- An interim coaching staff directs the team for the 13 October trip to Athletic.
- The change is the 22nd coaching switch in 32 rounds of the 2026 Série B.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Londrina sit 18th on 28 points after 32 rounds, five behind 17th-placed Avaí with six rounds to play, so this fixture carries direct survival weight. A side in that position has little room to play for a draw, which can shape how it approaches an away game at a mid-table host. The gap is still recoverable, and Ponte Preta and América-MG already occupy the other relegation places. The practical effect on this fixture is limited by the interim coaching setup, which adds uncertainty to the game plan.
- After 32 rounds, Londrina were 18th on 28 points, inside the relegation places, with Avaí 17th on 33.
- Londrina lost 2-1 at Avaí on 7 October, their fourth consecutive league defeat.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Londrina's away form is the thinnest part of their season.
Londrina's away split across seven tracked matches from 23 July to 7 October is 1W-0D-6L, with 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Seven matches is a small sample, and the record says more about where the season has gone than about any single lineup. An interim coaching staff adds further uncertainty to how the away side will be set up at Arena Sicredi.
- Londrina's away split across seven tracked matches from 23 July to 7 October 2026: 1W-0D-6L, 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game.
Athletic have won three of four previous meetings with Londrina, and 13 October is the fifth. Londrina's only win in the series was the 2-0 home victory on 20 June 2026, also the most recent meeting. The sample is small and should not be treated as a trend, but it frames the fixture and shows the visitors have beaten this opponent once in the same campaign.
- The clubs have met four times previously, with three Athletic wins and one Londrina win; the fifth meeting is on 13 October.
- Londrina won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 20 June 2026, with Bruno Santos converting a penalty.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:38 · Europe/BucharestTerrawww.terra.com.br · 20 Jun 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Athletic are at home against a side with one away win in seven and a disrupted coaching setup.
- Athletic home split: 3W-1D-3L, 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game
- Londrina away split: 1W-0D-6L, 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Londrina sit 18th, five points from safety, after four straight league defeats
- Londrina dismissed coach Rogério Micale on 10 October and an interim staff takes charge
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAthletic Club MGEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Level first halves are common and neither side scores heavily before the break.
- Athletic's last six first halves included three level scorelines
- Londrina away first halves average 0.43 goals scored
- Athletic home first halves average 1.0 scored and 0.86 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between these teams are often level or low-scoring.
- Athletic's last six second halves included two 0-0 results
- Londrina away second halves average 0.43 scored and 0.43 conceded
- Athletic home second halves average 1.28 total goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic are at home against a side with one away win in seven and a disrupted coaching setup. Athletic draw often in the league and their recent games have been tight.
- Athletic home split: 3W-1D-3L, 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game
- Londrina away split: 1W-0D-6L, 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Athletic have drawn 12 of 32 league games, including 5 of 16 at home
- Athletic's recent league form is L-L-D-D-W
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAthletic Club MG or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic are the stronger home side and Londrina concede early goals away. Level first halves are common and neither side scores heavily before the break.
- Athletic home first halves average 1.0 scored and 0.86 conceded
- Londrina away first halves average 0.43 scored and 1.29 conceded
- Athletic's last six first halves included three level scorelines
- Londrina away first halves average 0.43 goals scored
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAthletic Club MG or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Both sides' recent games have produced goals and Athletic's home defence concedes regularly.
- Athletic home matches average 3.14 total goals (1.71 for, 1.43 against)
- Londrina away matches average 2.57 total goals
- Athletic conceded twice in each of their last two matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Athletic concede at home while Londrina have found the net in most away matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Athletic's 7 home matches
- Londrina scored in 5 of their 7 away matches
- Athletic conceded in 5 of 7 home games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
First-half goals appear in most of these teams' recent matches.
- Athletic overall first halves average 0.67 scored and 0.60 conceded
- Londrina overall first halves average 0.47 scored and 0.93 conceded
- Four of Athletic's last six matches had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time in these sides' matches.
- Londrina away first halves average 0.43 scored
- Athletic home first halves average 1.0 scored
- Athletic's last six first halves featured at most one team scoring in most games
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's low away second-half scoring points to a quieter final period.
- Londrina away second halves average 0.86 total goals
- Athletic home second halves average 1.28 total goals
- Londrina scored 0.43 second-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Total corners sit close to the line, with Londrina's recent games producing more.
- Athletic home corners plus opponent corners average 9.57
- Londrina away corners plus opponent corners average 11.43
- Londrina's last six matches averaged about 11.5 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced shot totals above this line.
- Athletic home shots plus opponent shots average 30.0
- Londrina away shots plus opponent shots average 30.1
- Londrina's last six matches averaged about 31 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
On-target totals for these teams sit just above the line.
- Athletic home shots on target plus opponent's average 10.14
- Londrina away shots on target plus opponent's average 8.86
- Athletic's last six matches averaged about 9.5 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both sides stayed under five yellow cards.
- Athletic home yellows plus opponent yellows average 4.0
- Londrina away yellows plus opponent yellows average 4.14
- Athletic's 0-1 yellow match and Londrina's two 3-yellow matches were below 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Athletic Club MG: 1/5 recent winner projections matched

1 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Athletic Club MG matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Athletic Club MG5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B