2 de Mayo1Sportivo Ameliano0

HT 0–0Mon 12 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 12–16On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 19:51 · Europe/Bucharest

2 de Mayo can go top of the Clausura with a win, and they host an Ameliano side that has drawn four of seven away matches.

The home team is the more likely winner, though Ameliano beat them twice in the Apertura. At 2.63, 2 de Mayo to win offers a little value, and 1.45 on them drawing or winning is worthwhile too. Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 and both teams to score at 1.83 are not.

Context

With Olimpia and Libertad level on 27 points after Sunday's results, a win here lifts 2 de Mayo clear at the top of the Clausura on matchday 14. The prize is likely to reinforce Ledesma's existing approach rather than change it, but it adds weight to a home fixture his side is expected to take something from. 2 de Mayo's recent run, including a 2-0 win at Cerro Porteño on 5 October, shows the team is already producing under this kind of expectation. The counterpoint is timing: Olimpia and Libertad still have their own fixtures to come, so any lead could be short-lived.
- 2 de Mayo have 25 points, two fewer than Olimpia and Libertad, and a win on matchday 14 would take them top (Tigo Sports, 12 October 2026).
- ABC Deportes billed the Pedro Juan Caballero fixture as 2 de Mayo's chance to be único puntero (12 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Ledesma said on 9 October that his entire squad is at 100% and that the players on loan from Cerro Porteño are available again, removing a selection constraint before a game that could put his side top. For 2 de Mayo the value lies in restoring depth, since the comments do not name which loanees return or guarantee them a starting place. The timing matters because the club has a demanding run of Clausura and Copa Paraguay fixtures behind it, and a full squad gives Ledesma room to rotate if needed. Near-full availability is a condition rather than a confirmed lineup, so the effect on the XI remains uncertain.
- Ledesma, 2 de Mayo's coach, said on 9 October: 'Tenemos a todo el plantel en un 100%'.
- He added that the club's Cerro Porteño loanees are available again for the Ameliano match.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Nanni's assessment covers almost his entire squad, with Julio González returning and Fabián Franco newly added and possibly available late in the game. For a club that has spoken about managing injuries through the season, near-full availability gives Ameliano more room to choose its XI for a long away trip. The gain is bounded by Nanni's own wording: Franco is only 'maybe' ready for the final part, so his involvement is uncertain. The comments concern availability rather than a confirmed starting lineup for the Río Parapití.
- Nanni, Ameliano's coach, said on 9 October he has 'el 99% del plantel a disposición'.
- He said Julio González is back and Fabián Franco joined the group the previous day, possibly ready for the closing stages.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Pedro Juan Caballero sits near the Brazilian border, a long trip from Ameliano's Villeta base, and Nanni said the club wanted to fly but would decide based on the weather. Preparation for a 17:00 local kick-off can be affected if the squad must travel by road instead of air. The story is a plan under discussion rather than a confirmed flight, so any effect is limited to travel fatigue and routine disruption. Nanni framed it alongside the team's wish to bounce back quickly from the Rubio Ñu defeat.
- Nanni said on 9 October: 'Estábamos hablando con el Presidente para intentar viajar a Pedro Juan en avión, pero dependemos de como está el clima'.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 19:48 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.65fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 60.6%

−1.6ppshort

Neither side scores freely in these venue splits, keeping most games to two goals or fewer.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
2 de Mayo sit higher, are at home and have a full squad, while Ameliano have won only once on the road.
- 2 de Mayo 8W-4D-3L overall, 3W-2D-2L in the home split
- Ameliano 1W-4D-2L in the away split
- 2 de Mayo rank 3rd on 25 points, Ameliano 8th on 18
- Head-to-head: one draw plus Ameliano wins in the two Apertura meetings
BetBugs · Match Winnerwon2 de MayoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' games usually pass with few or no goals.
- 2 de Mayo first-half goals 0.53 and against 0.60 overall
- Ameliano first-half goals 0.27 and against 0.47 overall
- Ameliano recent away first halves ended 0-0 and 0-1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are spread evenly between these teams, keeping the draw common.
- 2 de Mayo second-half goals 0.80 and against 0.60 overall
- Ameliano second-half goals 0.80 and against 0.73 overall
- Ameliano drew the second half in three of their last six
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
2 de Mayo sit higher, are at home and have a full squad, while Ameliano have won only once on the road. Both sides draw often, and Ameliano in particular settle for many away stalemates.
- 2 de Mayo 8W-4D-3L overall, 3W-2D-2L in the home split
- Ameliano 1W-4D-2L in the away split
- Ameliano 6 draws in 15 overall and 4 draws in 7 away games
- 2 de Mayo 4 draws in 15 overall
BetBugs · Double Chancewon2 de Mayo or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side barely scores before half-time in their own ground. First halves in these teams' games usually pass with few or no goals.
- 2 de Mayo first-half goals at home 0.14 per game
- Ameliano first-half goals against away 0.29 per game
- 2 de Mayo first-half goals 0.53 and against 0.60 overall
- Ameliano first-half goals 0.27 and against 0.47 overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First Halfwon2 de Mayo or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Neither side scores freely in these venue splits, keeping most games to two goals or fewer.
- 2 de Mayo home games total 2.15 goals per match
- Ameliano away games total 2.14 goals per match
- 2 de Mayo blanked in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Ameliano score regularly on the road, and 2 de Mayo have been conceding at home.
- Ameliano both scored in 6 of 7 away games
- 2 de Mayo kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home games
- Head-to-head both scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring output at this ground is low, so one goal or fewer is the likely outcome.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.86 goals per home game
- 2 de Mayo scored 4 goals across 7 home matches
- Ameliano kept clean sheets in only 2 of 15
BetBugs · Home Goals Totalwon2 de Mayo under 1.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors score at a rate of about one per away game, which keeps their total low.
- Ameliano average 1.0 goal per away game
- Ameliano scored 6 goals in 7 away matches
- 2 de Mayo kept 3 clean sheets at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSportivo Ameliano under 1.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' games average close to this line.
- 2 de Mayo second-half total at home 1.43 goals
- Ameliano second-half total away 1.57 goals
- Recent second halves produced 1,3,1,1,2 and 2 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce around ten corners and Ameliano concede many from wide areas.
- 2 de Mayo games average 9.6 corners combined
- Ameliano games average 10.4 corners combined
- Ameliano away games average 12.3 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches are shot-heavy, especially Ameliano's away games.
- 2 de Mayo games average 23.7 shots combined
- Ameliano games average 27.6 shots combined
- Ameliano away games average 28.5 shots combined
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ameliano's games carry enough shots on target to lift this line above half.
- 2 de Mayo games average 7.2 shots on target combined
- Ameliano games average 9.2 combined
- Ameliano away games average 9.2 combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined booking averages of both teams stay just below this line.
- 2 de Mayo average 2.4 yellows and opponents 1.6
- Ameliano average 2.2 yellows and opponents 2.0
- Combined yellow averages: 4.0 and 4.2 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%