Draw
Market 28.6% · BetBugs 32%
Ameliano have drawn 3 of their last 5 league matches and H2H has a 40% draw rate, making the draw undervalued at 3.50.
División Profesional - ClausuraFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Recoleta are unbeaten in five H2H meetings, but the best value is the draw at 3.50 (32% model vs 28.6% implied).
Avoid the Ameliano double chance at 1.30 and first-half over 0.5 at 1.30, both heavily overpriced.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 28.6% · BetBugs 32%
Ameliano have drawn 3 of their last 5 league matches and H2H has a 40% draw rate, making the draw undervalued at 3.50.
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 55%
H2H history is strongly over 2.5 (4 of last 5) and Recoleta's away games average 3.0 total goals, supporting a repeat of high-scoring encounters.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 40% · Market 45.5%
Both teams often go into the break level, but the market already prices a high draw probability, leaving no value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 76.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5-5 | 6 |
| 5 | Recoleta FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9-10 | 7 |

