2 de Mayo0Libertad Asuncion2

HT 0–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 10–7On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest

2 de Mayo are unbeaten at home and defensively solid, making them unlikely to lose against an inconsistent Libertad side.

The best value is 2 de Mayo or Draw at 1.80, with a 16-point edge over the model's 72% probability. Expect a low-scoring match, but avoid the heavily overpriced first-half under 1.5 goals.

Context

2 de Mayo are the current leaders of the Paraguayan Clausura with 21 points from nine matches.
Their record of six wins and three draws shows consistent form, and they have conceded only six goals, the joint-best defensive record in the league. This solidity gives them a strong platform against a Libertad side that has lost twice already. However, their home form has been less dominant, with three wins and two draws from five matches, so Libertad may still find opportunities.
- 2 de Mayo are 1st with 21 points from 9 matches (6W, 3D, 0L).
- They have conceded only 6 goals, the joint-best defensive record in the league.
- At home they have 3 wins and 2 draws from 5 matches.
2 de Mayo lead the Clausura with 21 points from nine matches, while Libertad sit second on 19. The match at Río Parapití can therefore alter the leadership immediately.
The direct two-point gap raises the incentive for both sides to treat the fixture as an immediate leadership contest. A home win would extend 2 de Mayo's advantage, while a Libertad victory would move the visitors top. The table position does not by itself predict how either team will play, but it frames the stakes for the tenth-round meeting.
- The APF table places 2 de Mayo first on 21 points and Libertad second on 19 after nine games.
- The APF confirms Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero as the venue for the tenth-round match.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 16:03 · Europe/BucharestAPF Web Oficialwww.apf.org.py · 11 Sep 2026APF Torneo Clausura tablewww.apf.org.py · 11 Sep 2026
Libertad Asuncion are second in the Clausura with 19 points, two behind 2 de Mayo.
A win would put them level on points and ahead on goal difference, so they are likely to push for all three points. Their away record is mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses, but they have scored in most away games. This match is a direct battle for the top spot, and Libertad's motivation should be high.
- Libertad Asuncion are 2nd with 19 points from 9 matches.
- They are 2 points behind 2 de Mayo.
- A win would move them above 2 de Mayo on goal difference.
The last five matches between these teams have produced two Libertad wins, one 2 de Mayo win, and two draws.
Libertad won the most recent encounter 2-0 at home in March 2026, and also won 1-0 away in June 2025. 2 de Mayo's only win came in September 2025. This pattern suggests Libertad have had the edge recently, but the sample is small and both teams have changed since then.
- 2026-03-13: Libertad Asuncion 2-0 2 de Mayo (Apertura)
- 2025-06-01: 2 de Mayo 0-1 Libertad Asuncion (Apertura)
- 2025-09-21: Libertad Asuncion 0-1 2 de Mayo (Clausura)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and superior defensive stability give 2 de Mayo a slight edge, but Libertad's quality keeps the probability moderate.
- 2 de Mayo are unbeaten in Clausura with 6 wins and 3 draws from 9 matches.
- Home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 6 goals for, 3 against.
- Libertad away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 5 goals for, 7 against.
- Last H2H at this venue: 2 de Mayo 0-0 Libertad (May 2026).
BetBugs · Match Winnerlost2 de MayoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's strong defensive record and unbeaten home form make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance.
- 2 de Mayo have not lost at home this Clausura (3W, 2D).
- Libertad have lost 2 of 5 away matches.
- 2 de Mayo have conceded only 3 goals in 5 home games.
BetBugs · Double Chancelost2 de Mayo or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides have low first-half lead percentages, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- 2 de Mayo led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Libertad led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Both teams have a high proportion of level first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the recent goalless draw is possible but not highly probable given Libertad's tendency to avoid draws.
- 2 de Mayo have drawn 3 of 9 matches overall.
- Libertad have drawn 1 of 9 matches.
- Last H2H was 0-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent head-to-head has been low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- 2 de Mayo average 1.5 goals for and 0.7 against overall.
- Libertad average 1.4 goals for and 1.4 against overall.
- Last H2H ended 0-0; three of last five H2H had under 2.5 goals.
- 2 de Mayo home games average 1.8 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
2 de Mayo's strong defense and Libertad's inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- 2 de Mayo have kept clean sheets in 5 of 9 Clausura matches.
- Libertad failed to score in 2 of 5 away matches.
- Last H2H: 0-0 draw.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.3.
- Libertad average 0.7 first-half goals and concede 0.7.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.2.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring rates in the second half, but the edge is marginal and confidence is low.
- 2 de Mayo score 1.0 goals per second half on average (total 1.5 - first half 0.5).
- Libertad score 0.7 goals per second half on average (total 1.4 - first half 0.7).
- Combined second-half average is 1.7 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are below the 9.5 line, supporting an under bet.
- 2 de Mayo average 3.2 corners per match, concede 5.0 (opponent corners).
- Libertad average 5.5 corners per match, concede 4.5.
- Combined average corners: 8.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is below the 8.5 line, making under 8.5 likely.
- 2 de Mayo average 3.5 shots on target per match.
- Libertad average 4.7 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average is below the 4.5 line.
- 2 de Mayo average 2.0 yellow cards per match.
- Libertad average 1.5 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%