Cerro Porteno02 de Mayo2

HT 0–1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 22:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 16–9On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 16–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Cerro Porteño's home league form meets a 2 de Mayo side that won in Pedro Juan Caballero in July and has taken 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from six league away games.

Cerro are the more likely winners, but 1.53 asks more than that. Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 and both teams to score: No at 1.62 ask more too. The only quoted selection offering anything is 2 de Mayo to win or draw at 2.38.

Context

Velázquez was hurt in Cerro Porteño's 2-1 Copa Paraguay win over Rubio Ñu on 30 September, and a five-to-10-day rest protocol keeps the captain out of the 2 de Mayo fixture. Losing a first-choice centre-back unsettles a defence that has conceded in three of Cerro's last five matches across league and cup. The same window leaves him uncertain for the following round, so the back line may stay reshuffled. Because the club has not issued its own update, the exact replacement and any change to the timeline remain open.
- Cerro Porteño's Gustavo Velázquez is ruled out of the 2 de Mayo match after a strong blow to the head against Rubio Ñu.
- He is under a rest protocol that bars sudden movements and points to a return in five to 10 days.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:10 · Europe/Bucharest
The restriction is a contract term between the two clubs rather than an injury or suspension, so it applies only to fixtures against Cerro Porteño. It thins 2 de Mayo's squad options for a visit to the largest away ground in the division, and may nudge the coach toward a more conservative setup. The three players are not named and their usual minutes are not listed in the available material, so the practical size of the loss cannot be measured precisely.
- Three 2 de Mayo players on loan from Cerro Porteño cannot feature against Cerro Porteño.
- The loan deal bars the borrowed players from appearing against Cerro Porteño in friendlies and official matches.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Costas inherited a Cerro Porteño side sitting well off the pace, and his seven-point start was the clearest improvement of their Clausura campaign. His choices shape the selection and structure that faces 2 de Mayo at home. The bounce has since cooled with a draw at Guaraní and a defeat at Trinidense in the following league matches, so the early record is a guide rather than a firm read on the current level.
- Gustavo Costas is in charge at Cerro Porteño and took seven points from his first three league games, against Libertad, Recoleta and Nacional.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:10 · Europe/Bucharest
The round-two defeat is Cerro Porteño's most recent competitive meeting with 2 de Mayo, and the result that briefly installed the visitors as the only side with a perfect Clausura record, with Camilo Saiz and Óscar Romero scoring. Cerro's 3-2 home win in the 2025 Clausura shows the fixture has tended to favour whichever team plays at La Nueva Olla. Neither match came under the current Cerro coaching staff, so the results say more about the matchup's recent shape than about this specific game plan.
- 2 de Mayo beat Cerro Porteño 2-1 at Estadio Río Parapití in round two of the 2026 Clausura, making them the only team with a perfect record at that stage.
- Cerro Porteño beat 2 de Mayo 3-2 at La Nueva Olla in the 2025 Clausura.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:10 · Europe/BucharestDesdelaventana match reportdesdelaventana.com.ar · 29 Jul 2026APF 2025 Clausura round 5www.apf.org.py · 30 Jul 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

−2.1ppshort

Both teams have enough first-half scoring evidence to make at least one goal before the break likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

−2.8ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring output points to a tight game with few clear chances at La Nueva Olla.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.62fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 61.7%

−9.7ppshort

Cerro Porteño's home defence has been the most reliable part of their game and 2 de Mayo have been shut out repeatedly of late.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Cerro Porteño have been solid at La Nueva Olla under Costas, while 2 de Mayo arrive after a run of defeats and without a recent shutout.
- Cerro Porteño home league record 4W-1D-1L with 8 scored and 3 conceded in 6 matches.
- Home split across the window: 5W-1D-1L, 1.29 goals for and 0.43 against per match.
- 2 de Mayo have no clean sheet in their last six tracked matches, including a 0-3 loss at Nacional and 0-4 in the Copa.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCerro PortenoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring rates are around a goal a game, which keeps the interval level a common outcome.
- Cerro Porteño average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.29 against at home.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.71 against away.
- Cerro Porteño's first-half record includes 1-1 and 0-0 halves in their last four league games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cerro Porteño's low second-half scoring rate at home makes a level second period the most common outcome.
- Cerro Porteño's second-half goal difference at home is 0.43 for and 0.14 against.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.86 scored and 0.57 conceded in second halves away.
- The second half was level in two of Cerro Porteño's last four league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cerro Porteño have been solid at La Nueva Olla under Costas, while 2 de Mayo arrive after a run of defeats and without a recent shutout. Cerro Porteño's recent games have been tight and low-scoring, which keeps a share draw plausible.
- Cerro Porteño home league record 4W-1D-1L with 8 scored and 3 conceded in 6 matches.
- Home split across the window: 5W-1D-1L, 1.29 goals for and 0.43 against per match.
- Cerro Porteño have drawn 3 of 15 tracked matches; 2 de Mayo have drawn 4 of 15.
- The last two meetings at 2 de Mayo's ground finished 0-0 and 2-1.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCerro Porteno or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cerro Porteño start home games strongly and have scored before the break in most of their recent league outings. Both sides' first-half scoring rates are around a goal a game, which keeps the interval level a common outcome.
- Cerro Porteño score 0.86 first-half goals and concede 0.29 per home match.
- 2 de Mayo concede 0.71 first-half goals per away match.
- Cerro Porteño average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.29 against at home.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.71 against away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostCerro Porteno or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both teams' recent scoring output points to a tight game with few clear chances at La Nueva Olla.
- Cerro Porteño home split: 1.29 goals for and 0.43 against per match across 7 matches.
- Recent six tracked matches for the home side produced 6 scored and 4 conceded.
- Recent six tracked matches for the away side produced 3 scored and 6 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Cerro Porteño's home defence has been the most reliable part of their game and 2 de Mayo have been shut out repeatedly of late.
- Cerro Porteño home split: 4 clean sheets in 7 matches, conceding 0.43 per game.
- 2 de Mayo blanked in their last three losses (0-4, 0-3, 0-2).
- Both teams scored in only 2 of Cerro Porteño's 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cerro Porteño's home scoring rate sits just above one goal a game, making a single-goal output the more likely outcome.
- Cerro Porteño score 1.29 per home match, with 6 goals in 7 home outings.
- Their last six tracked matches yielded 6 goals in total.
- 2 de Mayo kept their opponents to one goal or fewer in 2 of their last 3 league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCerro Porteno under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have struggled for goals recently against a home defence that concedes very little.
- 2 de Mayo scored 3 goals across their last six tracked matches.
- Cerro Porteño have 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches, conceding 0.43 per game.
- 2 de Mayo were shut out in three of their last four league fixtures.
BetBugs · Away Goals Totallost2 de Mayo under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have a strong record of scoring away from home, which makes a home shutout less than a coin flip.
- 2 de Mayo scored in 5 of their 7 away matches in the window.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Cerro Porteño's 15 tracked matches.
- Cerro Porteño conceded in 3 of their 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to Scorewon2 de Mayo to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams have enough first-half scoring evidence to make at least one goal before the break likely.
- Cerro Porteño average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.29 against per home match.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.86 first-half goals for and 0.71 against per away match.
- Cerro Porteño have scored first-half goals in three of their last four league matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A controlled home second half with few goals is the most likely pattern given Cerro Porteño's defensive record.
- Cerro Porteño home second halves average 0.57 goals in total.
- 2 de Mayo away second halves average 1.43 goals in total.
- Cerro Porteño have conceded 1 second-half goal in 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance67%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner figures point to around ten in total, which sits just above the line.
- Cerro Porteño take 4.5 corners and concede 5.83 per home match.
- 2 de Mayo take 3.83 corners and concede 5.5 per away match.
- Cerro Porteño's last four league matches produced corner counts of 9, 12, 10 and 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot totals run above 26 per game combined, comfortably past the line on the available evidence.
- Cerro Porteño home matches average 26.83 total shots.
- 2 de Mayo away matches average 26.5 total shots.
- Cerro Porteño's last three league matches produced 31, 34 and 24 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages sit near the line, and a game without a dismissal would likely stay under.
- Cerro Porteño home matches average 2.67 total yellow cards.
- 2 de Mayo away matches average 4.0 total yellow cards.
- The fixture's recent meetings produced no red cards in the last two league games.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance53%