Sportivo Ameliano1Sportivo San Lorenzo0

HT 0–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–0100%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 20–13On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Ameliano are clear favourites but offer no betting value at 1.67.

The best edge is 'Both Teams to Score - No' at 1.88 (65% model vs 53.2% implied), and the first-half draw at 2.25 is also worth considering. Expect a low-scoring match with San Lorenzo's survival fight keeping it closer than the table suggests.

Context

San Lorenzo are last in the 12-team Clausura table with one point from nine matches.
They have lost five consecutive league games, including a 1-2 home defeat to 2 de Mayo on 5 September and a 1-3 away loss to Rubio NU on 1 September. Their attack has scored only three goals all season, while conceding 17. This poor form and lack of scoring power make it difficult for them to compete against a mid-table Ameliano side.
- San Lorenzo are 12th with 1 point from 9 matches (0W-1D-8L).
- They have lost their last five league matches: 1-2 vs 2 de Mayo (5 Sep), 1-3 at Rubio NU (1 Sep), 0-3 vs Nacional Asuncion (28 Aug), 0-1 at Libertad (24 Aug), 0-1 at Cerro Porteno (16 Aug).
- They have scored only 3 goals and conceded 17 in the Clausura.
San Lorenzo arrive with survival pressure after an eighth consecutive setback in round nine.
The immediate relegation stakes raise the incentive for San Lorenzo's game management and risk tolerance, particularly if the match remains level late on. Their 2-1 defeat to 2 de Mayo was reported as bringing mathematical relegation closer, and they had only one point before this round-ten opener.
- ABC Color reported that San Lorenzo's 2-1 loss to 2 de Mayo was its eighth consecutive setback.
- The same report said the club's mathematical relegation was getting closer.
- Tigo Sports listed San Lorenzo on one point before the round-ten opener.
ReportedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 15:54 · Europe/BucharestABC Colorwww.abc.com.py · 6 Sep 2026
Ameliano are sixth in the Clausura with 13 points and have a balanced home record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.
In the last two seasons, Ameliano have beaten San Lorenzo at home: 1-0 on 31 January 2026 and 3-0 on 25 September 2021. San Lorenzo have not scored in either match. This pattern suggests Ameliano are comfortable at home against this opponent, though the 2021 match was in a lower division and may be less relevant.
- Ameliano won 1-0 at home vs San Lorenzo on 31 Jan 2026.
- Ameliano won 3-0 at home vs San Lorenzo on 25 Sep 2021.
- San Lorenzo have not scored in either away match at Ameliano.
Ameliano's home fixture has been moved from La Fortaleza in Villeta to Arsenio Erico.
The switch removes the Villeta pitch that Roberto Nanni said had hindered Ameliano's intended approach and was being improved. Playing at Arsenio Erico changes the home setting and the surface constraint on his possession-oriented style, though the effect on San Lorenzo is less clear.
- The Paraguayan FA communicated that the round-ten match would be played at Arsenio Erico rather than La Fortaleza in Villeta.
- Nanni said the Villeta surface had hindered Ameliano's proposed style and was being improved.
- Sportivo San Lorenzo's official account confirmed the revised venue and the 16:00 local kickoff.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 15:54 · Europe/BucharestABC Colorwww.abc.com.py · 8 Sep 2026D10 Paraguayd10.ultimahora.com · 9 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sportivo Ameliano

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Ameliano's superior league position and recent form, combined with San Lorenzo's poor scoring and defensive record, make a home win the most likely outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sportivo Ameliano or Draw

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Given San Lorenzo's winless season and Ameliano's solid home form, the double chance of Ameliano or draw is strongly supported.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sportivo Ameliano or Draw

1.18fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

San Lorenzo's poor first-half record makes Ameliano or draw a very safe first-half double chance.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

San Lorenzo have scored a first-half goal in only 3 of 9 matches, and combined first-half scoring is low, supporting No.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ameliano's superior league position and recent form, combined with San Lorenzo's poor scoring and defensive record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Sportivo Ameliano rank 6th with 13 points, while Sportivo San Lorenzo rank 12th with 1 point.
- Ameliano have won 3 of their last 5 Clausura matches, San Lorenzo have lost all 5.
- Ameliano average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded; San Lorenzo average 0.4 scored and 1.7 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSportivo AmelianoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given San Lorenzo's winless season and Ameliano's solid home form, the double chance of Ameliano or draw is strongly supported.
- Ameliano have lost only 2 of 9 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo have not won any of their 9 Clausura matches.
- Ameliano's home record is 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSportivo Ameliano or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Ameliano have led at half-time in only 27% of matches.
- San Lorenzo have led at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Both teams have drawn at half-time in 40% of their combined matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ameliano's better second-half scoring and San Lorenzo's defensive frailty suggest Ameliano could edge the second half.
- Ameliano have scored 0.6 second-half goals per match, San Lorenzo only 0.1.
- San Lorenzo have conceded 1.1 second-half goals per match.
- Ameliano's superior fitness and depth likely to show in second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSportivo AmelianoEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Ameliano win is a plausible scenario given San Lorenzo's tendency to fade.
- Ameliano have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Ameliano have won 33% of matches overall.
- San Lorenzo have lost 89% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Sportivo AmelianoEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team is likely to win both halves, especially San Lorenzo who have not won any match.
- Ameliano have led at half-time in only 27% of matches.
- San Lorenzo have not won a single match this season.
- Ameliano's first-half goal difference is 0.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's poor first-half record makes Ameliano or draw a very safe first-half double chance.
- San Lorenzo have led at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Ameliano have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches.
- San Lorenzo have not won a first half in their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSportivo Ameliano or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially San Lorenzo, making a low-scoring match likely.
- Ameliano's matches average 2.4 total goals (1.1 scored + 1.3 conceded).
- San Lorenzo's matches average 2.1 total goals (0.4 scored + 1.7 conceded).
- San Lorenzo have scored only 3 goals in 9 Clausura matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's severe scoring struggles make it unlikely both teams will score.
- San Lorenzo have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 Clausura matches.
- Ameliano have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- San Lorenzo average only 0.4 goals per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Ameliano average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- San Lorenzo average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.9, but San Lorenzo's low output reduces likelihood of multiple goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring trends for both teams support under 1.5 goals in the second half.
- Ameliano's second-half goals average is 0.6 (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- San Lorenzo's second-half goals average is 0.1 (0.4 total - 0.3 first half).
- San Lorenzo have conceded 1.1 second-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates make it unlikely both teams score before half-time.
- Ameliano average 0.5 first-half goals, San Lorenzo 0.3.
- San Lorenzo have scored a first-half goal in only 3 of 9 matches.
- Combined first-half scoring is low.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's scoring woes give Ameliano a decent chance of a clean sheet.
- Ameliano have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- San Lorenzo have failed to score in 6 of 9 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo average 0.4 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSportivo San Lorenzo not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's leaky defense makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- San Lorenzo have conceded in 8 of 9 Clausura matches.
- Ameliano have scored in 7 of 9 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo's away record shows 9 goals conceded in 5 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSportivo Ameliano to scoreEstimated chance80%