Sporting Kansas City3Portland Timbers3

HT 1–2Sun 11 Oct 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 12–9On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 06:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Kansas City, bottom of the standings, host a Portland side missing their established centre-backs and on a three-match losing run, with Portland's 6-0 win in May the most recent meeting.

Both teams scoring is the likelier read, but 1.35 for it is thin; the prices that offer something are fewer than three goals in the match at 3.0 and no goals in the first half at 4.33.

Context

Portland travel without their established centre-back partnership: Surman's sprained MCL, Bonetig's shoulder surgery and McGraw's lumbar operation remove the players who have anchored the position, and long-term injuries to Mosquera and Bye thin it further. It matters here because Kansas City have been scoring in bursts while conceding heavily, and Portland have already been forced into an improvised Miller/Miller pairing. The counterweight is timing, since Surman's four-to-six-week window leaves room for an earlier return, although he was still rehabilitating away from team drills on 7 October.
- Finn Surman has been out since late September with a sprained MCL and was still working away from team drills on 7 October.
- Alex Bonetig faces four to six months out after shoulder stabilisation surgery at the end of September.
- Zac McGraw, who has not appeared in 2026, had further surgery on his lumbar spine on 7 October.
- Josue Mosquera and Brandon Bye also carry recovery timetables running into 2027.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Kansas City's run-in is now a race to avoid the Wooden Spoon: they sit last with seven matches left and remain the only original MLS club never to have finished bottom of the table. Home points are their most realistic route off the floor, which gives a Saturday night at Sporting Park more consequence than a 6-18-3 season would otherwise suggest. That framing is what makes these closing weeks matter beyond the club's own supporters. The position is corroborated across independent local coverage, although the margin to the teams immediately above shifts with every round.
- Sporting Kansas City are last in MLS with seven matches left in the regular season.
- The club is the only original MLS side never to have finished bottom of the table.
- Kansas City were 15 points adrift of a playoff place as the run-in began.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:27 · Europe/Bucharest
André Luiz has become the fixed point of Kansas City's season: five goals in four games, a goal in the Seattle defeat that briefly put his side ahead, and a place on the league's team of the matchday after the Houston win. It matters for this fixture because Kansas City's attack has been producing while their defence has not, and Portland arrive without the centre-backs who would normally be asked to handle a focal striker. He also entered MLS as the most expensive signing in the club's history, which makes the output the story rather than a surprise. The limit is that his goals have not turned into results, with the club still bottom of the table.
- André Luiz scored five goals in four games, including Kansas City's goal in the 2-1 defeat at Seattle.
- He joined in August as the most expensive signing in the club's history and has been scoring at roughly a goal per appearance.
- André Luiz started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 377 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Johnsen is Kansas City's captain and midfield anchor, and he left the Seattle match in its closing stages after going down without contact, at a point when the club's depth in that area was already being described as stretched. Whether he is passed fit shapes how the bottom side sets up against opponents whose own defensive options are depleted, and losing him would remove the most experienced presence in the middle of the pitch. He had played the full match at Houston a week earlier, so the early exit was a departure from his usual load. Nothing from the club has settled his status, so this remains an open question rather than a known absence.
- Lasse Berg Johnsen went down without contact and was substituted in the 79th minute of the 2-1 defeat at Seattle.
- Local coverage treated a hamstring problem as the concern and framed his availability for the 10 October home match as uncertain while the club's midfield thinned.
- L. Johnsen started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 420 minutes across 5 appearances.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:27 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sporting Kansas City or Portland Timbers

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Kansas City's home record is marginally better than Portland's away record, and Portland arrive with a patched-up central defence facing a striker in form. Portland are the stronger side over the season and have dominated this fixture recently, with an attack that scores twice a game on average.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Kansas City's home record is marginally better than Portland's away record, and Portland arrive with a patched-up central defence facing a striker in form.
- Sporting KC league home record: 3W-3D-7L, 18 scored and 26 conceded in 13
- Portland league away record: 2W-2D-9L, 17 scored and 26 conceded in 13
- Portland are without all established centre-backs (Surman, Bonetig, McGraw) plus Mosquera and Bye
- André Luiz has five goals in his last four appearances
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSporting Kansas CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kansas City have started home matches well and Portland have conceded early in several away games, giving the home side the first-half edge.
- Kansas City home first half: 0.86 scored, 0.57 conceded over 7 matches
- Portland away first half: 0.40 scored, 1.40 conceded over 5 matches
- Kansas City led 3-0 at half-time against Philadelphia at home
- Kansas City led 2-0 at half-time against LAFC at home
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSporting Kansas CityEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland have been the stronger side after the break across the season, while Kansas City regularly concede late at home.
- Portland overall second half: 1.13 scored, 0.67 conceded over 15 matches
- Kansas City home second half: 0.57 scored, 1.43 conceded over 7 matches
- Kansas City conceded four second-half goals at home to Philadelphia and two at Seattle
- Portland's away second-half defence allows 0.80 per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostPortland TimbersEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kansas City's home record is marginally better than Portland's away record, and Portland arrive with a patched-up central defence facing a striker in form. Portland are the stronger side over the season and have dominated this fixture recently, with an attack that scores twice a game on average.
- Sporting KC league home record: 3W-3D-7L, 18 scored and 26 conceded in 13
- Portland league away record: 2W-2D-9L, 17 scored and 26 conceded in 13
- Portland have 32 points to Kansas City's 21 over 27 league matches
- Portland won the most recent meeting 6-0 in May 2026 and won four of the last five head-to-heads
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSporting Kansas City or Portland TimbersEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kansas City have started home matches well and Portland have conceded early in several away games, giving the home side the first-half edge. Neither side's first-half scoring rate is high enough to rule out a level opening period.
- Kansas City home first half: 0.86 scored, 0.57 conceded over 7 matches
- Portland away first half: 0.40 scored, 1.40 conceded over 5 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSporting Kansas City or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede at high rates, and the combined home and away averages point to a match with several goals.
- Kansas City average 1.40 scored and 2.13 conceded over 15 matches
- Portland average 2.00 scored and 1.87 conceded over 15 matches
- Kansas City's home split totals 3.43 goals per game; Portland's away split totals 3.20
- Portland kept no clean sheet in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both defences give up goals in almost every match, and both attacks score regularly, so both teams finding the net is the likelier outcome.
- Portland both scored and conceded in 14 of 15 tracked matches
- Kansas City scored in 11 of 15 matches and kept one clean sheet
- Portland scored in all five of their away matches in the window
- Kansas City concede 2.13 goals per match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kansas City's home scoring rate is below 1.5 per game, so one goal or none is the more likely return.
- Kansas City's home split: 1.43 goals scored per game over 7 matches
- Kansas City scored one goal or fewer in roughly half of those home matches
- Kansas City have one clean-sheet opponent in their last three home games (Vancouver, 0-3)
- Kansas City were held to one goal at Seattle in their latest match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSporting Kansas City under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's away scoring sits at about a goal a game, making a return of one or none more likely than two or more.
- Portland's away split: 1.0 goal scored per game over 5 matches
- Portland scored one goal in their most recent away match, a 1-3 loss at San Jose
- Portland have lost their last three matches
- Portland's away first-half scoring is 0.4 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostPortland Timbers under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent first halves have produced goals, and the home and away splits point to more than one expected before the break.
- Kansas City's last four matches each produced at least one first-half goal
- Portland conceded three first-half goals at San Jose in their last away match
- Kansas City home first half combined total: 1.43 goals per match
- Portland away first half combined total: 1.80 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's away first-half scoring is low and Kansas City have often kept the first half clean at home, making both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- Portland's away first-half scoring average is 0.40 per match
- Kansas City's home first-half defence allows 0.57 per match
- Kansas City kept first-half clean sheets against Philadelphia, LAFC and Seattle
- Portland scored three first-half goals at home to Minnesota but none at San Jose away
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kansas City's home second halves have been high-scoring for both teams, and Portland's late-season games have also produced goals after the break.
- Kansas City home second half combined total: 2.00 goals per match
- Portland overall second half combined total: 1.80 goals per match
- Kansas City conceded four second-half goals at home to Philadelphia
- Kansas City conceded two second-half goals at Seattle
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit right at the line, with Portland's away games and Kansas City's recent matches pushing above it.
- Kansas City team and opponent corners average 9.9 per match over 15
- Portland team and opponent corners average 9.8 per match over 15
- Kansas City's home split totals 9.4 corners per match; Portland's away split totals 10.4
- Kansas City's last two matches produced 17 and 19 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kansas City's recent matches have been shot-heavy at both ends, and the combined season averages sit above the line.
- Kansas City team and opponent shots average 28.3 per match over 15
- Portland team and opponent shots average 27.3 per match over 15
- Kansas City's last six matches averaged about 33.5 total shots
- Kansas City's most recent match produced 43 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined card averages sit above the line, and Portland's disciplinary record adds to the total.
- Kansas City team and opponent yellows average 3.9 per match over 15
- Portland team and opponent yellows average 4.0 per match over 15
- Kansas City's last six matches averaged 4.0 total cards
- Portland have three red cards in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Sporting Kansas City: 5/5 recent goals projections matched

5 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Sporting Kansas City matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sporting Kansas City5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer