Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Atlanta United2Sporting Kansas City1

HT 2–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 8–8On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting KC's dreadful away defense (31 goals conceded in 10 games) makes a high-scoring match likely, but the market has already priced this in.

The only value edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00, while the home win, double chance, and Over 2.5 goals all offer negative expected value.

Context

Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-8L, 31 goals conceded in 10 away games.
- They conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Recent away losses include 6-0 at Portland and 5-0 at Chicago.
Atlanta United home record: 3W-1D-5L, 13 goals for, 15 against.
- They have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- They failed to score in 2 of 9 home games.
Sporting KC away scoring: 0.7 goals per game.
- They failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches.
- They have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 away games.
Sporting KC away matches average 2.2 second-half goals.
- Atlanta home matches average 1.8 second-half goals.
- Sporting KC concede 1.4 goals per game in the second half overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Atlanta United

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC's away record is dreadful (2W-0D-8L, 31 goals conceded in 10 away games), but Atlanta's home struggles and the market's short price leave no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Atlanta United or Draw

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

−13.3ppshort

Sporting KC have lost 8 of 10 away matches, making an away win unlikely, but the market has already priced this in heavily.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC concede heavily away (3.1 goals/game) and Atlanta home matches average 3.1 total goals, but the odds imply a 70% chance, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score and concede regularly, but the odds heavily favor BTTS and our estimate is well below the implied probability.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC concede early, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value relative to our 65% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Atlanta United's home advantage and Sporting KC's dreadful away form (31 goals conceded in 10 away games) give the hosts a clear edge, though their own inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Atlanta United home record: 3W-1D-5L, 13 goals for, 15 against in 9 home matches
- Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-8L, 7 goals for, 31 against in 10 away matches
- Atlanta United last 5 home matches: W, L, W, L, L (2W-0D-3L)
- Sporting KC last 5 away matches: L, L, L, W, L (1W-0D-4L)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAtlanta UnitedEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's away struggles make an away win unlikely, so backing Atlanta United or Draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Atlanta United home record: 3W-1D-5L, 13 goals for, 15 against in 9 home matches
- Sporting KC away record: 2W-0D-8L, 7 goals for, 31 against in 10 away matches
- Sporting KC have lost 8 of 10 away matches this season
- Atlanta United have only lost 5 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAtlanta United or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's poor first-half away record gives Atlanta United a slight edge, but the low probability reflects Atlanta's own first-half struggles.
- Atlanta United have led at halftime in 27% of matches overall, 33% at home
- Sporting KC have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches overall, 60% away
- Sporting KC first half goals conceded: 1.3 per game overall, 1.6 away
- Atlanta United first half goals: 0.4 per game overall, 0.6 at home
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAtlanta UnitedEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is possible given Sporting KC's away fragility, but Atlanta United's inconsistency makes this a low-probability pick.
- Atlanta United have led at halftime in 27% of matches overall, 33% at home
- Sporting KC have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches overall, 60% away
- Atlanta United home win rate: 33%
- Sporting KC away loss rate: 80%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonAtlanta United/Atlanta UnitedEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, especially Sporting KC's away concession rate, point to a high-scoring match.
- Atlanta United home matches average 3.1 total goals (13 for, 15 against in 9 games)
- Sporting KC away matches average 3.8 total goals (7 for, 31 against in 10 games)
- Sporting KC have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches
- Atlanta United have scored in 7 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS a plausible outcome.
- Atlanta United have scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- Sporting KC have scored in 5 of 10 away matches
- Sporting KC have conceded in 9 of 10 away matches
- Atlanta United have conceded in 8 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's tendency to concede early, especially away, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Atlanta United first half goals: 0.4 per game overall, but 0.6 at home
- Sporting KC first half goals conceded: 1.3 per game overall, 1.6 away
- Sporting KC have trailed at halftime in 53% of matches
- Atlanta United have led at halftime in 27% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open in the second half, and Sporting KC's away defensive record suggests multiple second-half goals.
- Atlanta United second half goals: 1.0 per game overall
- Sporting KC second half goals conceded: 1.4 per game overall
- Sporting KC away matches average 2.2 second-half goals
- Atlanta United home matches average 1.8 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest a total around 9, but the low confidence reflects variability in corner counts.
- Atlanta United average 4.8 corners per game overall, 5.2 at home
- Sporting KC average 3.4 corners per game overall, 2.8 away
- Sporting KC concede an average of 5.6 corners per away game
- Atlanta United concede an average of 5.1 corners per home game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderate card count, but the low confidence reflects the unpredictable nature of bookings.
- Atlanta United average 2.4 yellow cards per game overall, 2.6 at home
- Sporting KC average 1.7 yellow cards per game overall, 1.8 away
- Sporting KC have received 2+ yellow cards in 7 of last 10 away matches
- Atlanta United have received 2+ yellow cards in 6 of last 9 home matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Atlanta United has underperformed Over 2.5 goals projections recently

Atlanta United has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 40% success rate. The average estimated probability was 60%, but only 40% of matches actually went over 2.5 goals. All five matches were away from home, where Atlanta United has struggled to produce high-scoring games.

Recent evidence for Atlanta United5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer