IF Boljan0Jonsereds IF1

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 01:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Böljan are seventh but at home; Jonsered are fourth yet have averaged 0.86 goals in seven away matches in the tracked spell.

Böljan are the single most likely winner, though the 2.15 on them asks for slightly more than their home form justifies. The one quoted price worth taking is under 2.5 goals at 2.63.

Context

Home advantage, rather than the identity of the home club, has decided this fixture in the recent sequence.
Jonsered's 3-0 came at their own ground in April 2026, Böljan's 2-0 came at theirs in August 2025, and the March 2025 meeting was also won by the hosts. Saturday's game is at Böljan's ground, which is the only reason a three-match pattern points their way, and all three meetings were settled without both teams scoring. Three results is a small sample, so this describes how the fixture has gone rather than a fixed rule.
- Jonsered beat Böljan 3-0 on 17 April 2026 in Division 2 Västra Götaland, the most recent meeting between the clubs.
- Böljan beat Jonsered 2-0 at home on 8 August 2025.
- Jonsered beat Böljan 3-0 at home on 28 March 2025, so the home team has won all three recent meetings.
Jonsered arrive with the better league position but with the weaker away output of the two sides.
Across the seven away matches in the tracked window, part of the run from 22 May to 26 September 2026, Jonsered won two, drew one and lost four, scoring 0.86 goals and conceding 1.71 per game. Their 39 points and 11 wins were built largely at home, and a trip to Böljan asks them to produce the part of their game that has returned least. Seven matches is a small sample, so it sets a pattern rather than a limit on Saturday.
- Jonsered's seven away matches in the tracked window produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats.
- That seven-match away sample averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game.
- The tracked window covers 15 competitive Jonsered matches between 22 May and 26 September 2026.
Böljan's case for Saturday rests on playing at home, and their recent results sit awkwardly with that.
The eight tracked home matches produced 1.63 goals for and 1.75 against per game, while the seven away matches produced 1.57 for and 1.29 against. Home games have been the more open ones at both ends for Böljan, and the away split has been the steadier of the two. With only seven or eight matches in each split, this is a caution against leaning too hard on home advantage rather than proof that Böljan are a better side on the road.
- Across Böljan's 15 competitive matches from 2 June to 25 September 2026 the split is uneven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in eight home matches.
- The seven away matches in the same window returned 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, conceding 1.29 goals per away game against 1.75 at home.
Jonsereds IF have taken four points from their last three Division 2 Västra Götaland matches, following a 3-2 home win over Torslanda on 12 September with a 2-0 defeat at Åstorp and a 1-1 home draw with Hestrafors IF on 26 September. Only the Åstorp match ended without a Jonsered goal, and the draw at Jonsereds IP 1 Konstgräs drew 156 spectators, so the side arrives at this fixture without a win in two. Böljan's last two league games also finished 1-1, which frames Saturday as a meeting of two sides currently trading on level scorelines. Against that, Jonsered scored at least twice in two of those three matches, so the run reflects a team still creating goals rather than one that has gone quiet.
- Jonsereds IF beat Torslanda 3-2 at home on 12 September 2026.
- Jonsereds IF lost 2-0 away at Åstorp on 20 September 2026.
- Jonsereds IF drew 1-1 at home with Hestrafors IF on 26 September 2026; the game at Jonsereds IP 1 Konstgräs drew 156 spectators.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 01:16 · Europe/BucharestDivision 2 Västra Götaland results — Jonsereds IFdiv2.se · 1 Oct 2026Division 2 Västra Götaland match resultswww.fotbollstabeller.nu · 26 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

First-half goals are common for both teams, with only a few scoreless first halves recently.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IF Boljan

2.15fair 2.17

BetBugs 46% · Market 46.5%

−0.5ppshort

Boljan's home advantage and stronger home scoring make them the most likely winner, despite Jonsered's higher league position.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Boljan's home advantage and stronger home scoring make them the most likely winner, despite Jonsered's higher league position.
- Boljan home split: 3W-1D-4L in last 8 home matches, 1.63 goals for and 1.75 against per game.
- Jonsered away split: 2W-1D-4L in last 7 away matches, 0.86 goals for and 1.71 against per game.
- H2H: the home team won all three recent meetings, including Boljan 2-0 at home in August 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF BoljanEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring from both sides makes a draw at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Boljan home first half average: 1.00 GF, 1.25 GA; Jonsered away first half: 0.29 GF, 0.71 GA.
- Both teams average fewer than one first-half goal in the relevant splits.
- First-half draw is the most common outcome when combining these low-scoring profiles.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boljan's home advantage and stronger home scoring make them the most likely winner, despite Jonsered's higher league position. Jonsered's higher league position and Boljan's leaky home defense keep their win chance competitive.
- Boljan home split: 3W-1D-4L in last 8 home matches, 1.63 goals for and 1.75 against per game.
- Jonsered away split: 2W-1D-4L in last 7 away matches, 0.86 goals for and 1.71 against per game.
- Jonsered overall last 15: 7W-4D-4L, with 1.67 goals for per game.
- Jonsered away split: 2W-1D-4L, scoring only 0.86 goals per game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIF Boljan or Jonsereds IFEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boljan's first-half scoring at home gives them a narrow edge, but first halves are often tight. Low first-half scoring from both sides makes a draw at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Boljan home first half: 1.00 goals for, 1.25 against per game.
- Jonsered away first half: 0.29 goals for, 0.71 against per game.
- Boljan home first half average: 1.00 GF, 1.25 GA; Jonsered away first half: 0.29 GF, 0.71 GA.
- Both teams average fewer than one first-half goal in the relevant splits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIF Boljan or DrawEstimated chance69%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined home and away goal averages point to a slight lean toward over 2.5 goals.
- Boljan home matches average 3.38 total goals; Jonsered away matches average 2.57.
- Expected total goals based on home/away splits is around 2.97.
- Over 2.5 has hit in 3 of Boljan's last 6 and 2 of Jonsered's last 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score at reasonable rates in their respective home/away splits, though H2H cautions against it.
- Boljan scored in 6 of 8 home matches; Jonsered scored in 4 of 7 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Boljan's 8 home and 3 of Jonsered's 7 away.
- H2H: no BTTS in the last three meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boljan's home scoring has been inconsistent, with two of their last three home games producing one goal or fewer.
- Boljan home average: 1.63 goals per game over 8 matches.
- Boljan scored 1 or fewer in two of their last three home matches.
- Boljan failed to score in 2 of their 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIF Boljan under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jonsered have scored one goal or fewer in six of seven away matches, making under 1.5 the clear likelihood.
- Jonsered away: 6 goals in 7 matches, averaging 0.86 per game.
- Jonsered scored 0 or 1 goal in all of their last three away matches.
- Jonsered scored more than one away goal in just one of seven away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonJonsereds IF under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boljan's home defense concedes regularly, making a clean sheet unlikely.
- Boljan home clean sheets: 1 in 8 home matches.
- Jonsered failed to score in 3 of 7 away matches.
- Boljan concede 1.75 goals per game at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJonsereds IF to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boljan have scored in six of eight home matches, making it likely they score against Jonsered.
- Jonsered away clean sheets: 1 in 7 away matches.
- Boljan scored in 6 of 8 home matches.
- Boljan failed to score in 2 of 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIF Boljan to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals are common for both teams, with only a few scoreless first halves recently.
- Boljan home first half: 1.00 GF, 1.25 GA; Jonsered away first half: 0.29 GF, 0.71 GA.
- Boljan scored in the first half of five of their last six matches; Jonsered scored in two of their last six first halves.
- Recent first halves produced at least one goal in 10 of 12 combined matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jonsered's away first-half scoring is weak, making it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Boljan home first half: 1.00 GF; Jonsered away first half: 0.29 GF.
- Boljan scored in 5 of last 6 first halves; Jonsered scored in 2 of last 6.
- Jonsered away first half: 0.71 goals against per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring averages are low, pointing to under 1.5 goals after the break.
- Boljan home second half: 0.63 GF, 0.50 GA; Jonsered away second half: 0.57 GF, 1.00 GA.
- Second-half total goals over 1.5 in 4 of last 12 combined matches.
- Jonsered away second half concedes 1.00 goal per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%