IF Boljan1Landvetter IS1

HT 1–1Fri 18 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Landvetter's promotion cushion and 0.9 goals-conceded average make draw-or-away (1.40) and under 3.5 goals (1.67) the safest plays, while the drawn first half at 2.38 is the best value at a ten-point edge.

Avoid the match-winner favourite at 1.80 and the 1.16 first-half double chance — both are priced above the model's estimate.

Context

Landvetter IS have won 15 of 21 league games and lost only four, scoring 37 and conceding 17. IF Boljan sit seventh with nine wins, five draws and seven defeats.
The standings gap shapes how each side approaches the game. Landvetter have the better defensive record and a strong away return of six wins from ten, while Boljan have lost four of ten at home. Boljan's home form is mixed rather than weak, so the table gap does not guarantee a comfortable away win.
- Landvetter IS rank 1st with 47 points from 21 matches (15W 2D 4L).
- IF Boljan rank 7th with 32 points from 21 matches (9W 5D 7L).
- The points gap between the two teams is 15.
Landvetter arrive at Böljan as league leaders, listed first on 44 points after 20 matches in an 11 September report and now shown on 47 points from 21 matches, seven clear of Hestrafors. Five rounds remain in the 26-round season, and only the group winner is promoted.
That margin means Landvetter have a direct incentive to protect their position across the closing fixtures, which can shape how they manage game states, particularly when holding a lead. The claim is reported rather than confirmed, and the table gap does not by itself determine how either side will set up or how the match will unfold. The evidence establishes the standings and the promotion format, not a specific approach Landvetter will take at Böljan.
- A 11 September league report listed Landvetter first on 44 points after 20 matches, seven ahead of Hestrafors.
- The current competition listing shows Landvetter on 47 points from 21 matches and Hestrafors on 40, with IF Böljan hosting Landvetter on 18 September.
- The competition format is a 26-round home-and-away season in which the group winner is promoted.
ReportedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 16:00 · Europe/BucharestDivision 2 Fotboll: Landvetter lead before round 21div2.se · 11 Sep 2026Tabellen.se: current Division 2 Västra Götaland table and fixturestabellen.se · 16 Sep 2026Division 2 Fotboll: competition formatdiv2.se · 11 Sep 2026
Boljan have conceded 29 goals in 21 league games; Landvetter have conceded 17. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game.
Landvetter's lower concession rate gives them a stronger base, but Boljan's home record includes 20 goals scored in ten games, so the hosts can still create chances. The averages suggest Landvetter are harder to score against, not that Boljan will be shut out.
- IF Boljan average 1.6 goals conceded per game across the season.
- Landvetter IS average 0.9 goals conceded per game across the season.
- Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game.
Boljan have led at half-time in 27% of games and trailed in 47%. Landvetter have led in 33% and trailed in 13%.
Boljan's habit of conceding first-half goals (0.9 per game) means they often need to recover after the break. Landvetter's low trailing rate suggests they are more likely to be ahead or level at half-time, which could force Boljan to chase the game.
- IF Boljan have trailed at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- Landvetter IS have trailed at half-time in 13% of their matches.
- Boljan concede 0.9 first-half goals per game on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural away edge plus a far stronger defensive profile (0.9 GA/game vs 1.6) and a 15-point table gap give the league leaders the edge, though Böljan's solid home scoring keeps this short of high confidence.
- Landvetter lead the table on 47 points from 21 matches (15W-2D-4L, 37 GF / 17 GA), 15 points clear of Böljan (32 pts, 34 GF / 29 GA).
- Landvetter away record: 6W-2D-2L in 10 road games, 18 GF / 9 GA — the best away defence in this matchup.
- Böljan home record: 5W-1D-4L in 10 home games, 20 GF / 14 GA, with recent home losses to Hestrafor (1-3) and Åstorp (0-1).
- Last 5 form: Landvetter WLWLW vs Böljan LWWWL; Landvetter concede only 0.9 goals per game over the last 15 vs Böljan's 1.6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLandvetter ISEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Landvetter's low loss rate (4/21) with Böljan's 4 home defeats and the single-goal H2H pattern makes a draw-or-away result the safest outcome.
- Landvetter have lost only 4 of 21 league matches (15W-2D-4L) and only 2 of 10 away games.
- Böljan have drawn 5 of 21 and lost 4 of 10 home matches, showing limited ability to close out home fixtures.
- Landvetter's last 15 matches show 0.9 goals conceded per game, the strongest defensive number in this matchup.
- H2H last 3 meetings were all decided by a single goal (1-0, 1-0, 3-2), indicating tight margins rather than blowouts.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Landvetter ISEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's low first-half scoring and concession rates combined with Böljan's frequent level half-time scores make a drawn first half the single most likely outcome.
- Landvetter were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches (D, W, D, L, W half-time results).
- Böljan were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Landvetter concede just 0.4 first-half goals per game, making an early deficit unlikely.
- Böljan's 47% trailing-at-half-time rate is offset by Landvetter's cautious 33% leading rate.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's very low half-time trailing rate (13%) and strong first-half defence make it highly likely they are level or ahead at the interval.
- Landvetter trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches over the last 15.
- Landvetter conceded 0.4 first-half goals per game, the lowest figure in this matchup.
- Böljan trailed at half-time in 47% of matches, showing a recurring slow-start pattern.
- Böljan scored only 0.9 first-half goals per game, limiting their ability to lead at the break.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Landvetter ISEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's superior away record and goal difference support a narrow away win, but the single-goal H2H pattern and Böljan's home threat keep this a low-confidence handicap play.
- Landvetter have won 6 of 10 away matches and lost only 2.
- Böljan have lost 4 of 10 home matches, including recent defeats to Hestrafor and Åstorp.
- Landvetter's goal difference is +20 versus Böljan's +5.
- H2H last 3 meetings were all won by the away side, including Böljan's 1-0 win at Landvetter in May 2026.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostLandvetter IS -0.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's pattern of level half-time scores converting into full-time wins supports a draw-to-away HT/FT, though the low base rate of this exact combination keeps confidence low.
- Landvetter were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, then won 3 of those games.
- Landvetter's 33% half-time leading rate versus 13% trailing rate shows they often improve after the break.
- Böljan trailed at half-time in 47% of matches but recovered to win several of them.
- Landvetter have won 15 of 21 league matches, frequently by narrow margins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw or Landvetter IS / Landvetter ISEstimated chance26%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's elite defensive record (0.9 GA/game) and the historically tight H2H margins point to a controlled, lower-scoring game rather than an open shootout.
- Landvetter average 1.7 goals scored and just 0.9 conceded across the last 15 matches.
- Böljan average 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded, but their last 5 include a 0-5 cup loss and a 5-0 win, inflating variance.
- All three H2H meetings produced 1, 1 and 5 total goals — two of three under 3.5.
- Landvetter's 21 league games average 2.57 total goals (37 GF + 17 GA / 21).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks average 1.7 goals per game and Böljan's leaky home defence (1.6 GA/game) should allow the leaders to score, while Böljan's home scoring output makes a clean sheet for Landvetter unlikely.
- Böljan score 1.7 per game over the last 15 and have scored in 4 of their last 5 home league matches.
- Landvetter score 1.7 per game and have failed to score in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H: both teams scored in the 3-2 meeting (June 2025); the two 1-0 games did not.
- Böljan concede 1.6 per game, giving Landvetter a realistic route to at least one goal.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's very low first-half concession rate (0.4) and their tendency to manage games early suggest a quiet opening period, with Böljan's slow starts further suppressing first-half goals.
- Landvetter average 0.8 first-half goals scored and only 0.4 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- Böljan average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.9 against, but were 0-0 at half-time in 4 of their last 8 matches.
- Landvetter led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in only 13%, indicating cautious starts.
- Böljan trailed at half-time in 47% of matches, often conceding early rather than scoring early.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are well below their full-match averages, implying a back-loaded goal distribution that favours a higher second-half total.
- Böljan's last 5 matches produced 3, 7, 5, 1 and 5 total goals, with most scoring arriving after the break.
- Landvetter's last 5 include a 3-4 and a 4-2, showing second-half volatility in recent games.
- Landvetter average 1.7 goals per game overall but only 0.8 in the first half, implying a heavier second-half share.
- Böljan's 1.6 goals conceded per game typically come as games open up late.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Böljan's strong home scoring rate (2.0 goals per home game) makes a Landvetter away clean sheet unlikely despite their solid overall defensive numbers.
- Böljan score 1.7 goals per game over the last 15 and 20 goals in 10 home league matches (2.0 per home game).
- Landvetter keep clean sheets but concede 0.9 per game overall and 9 in 10 away matches.
- Böljan scored in 4 of their last 5 home league fixtures.
- H2H: Böljan scored 3 in the June 2025 meeting and 1 in the May 2026 meeting.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIF Boljan to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's stingy away defence (0.9 GA/game) and Böljan's recent home blankings against Åstorp and Hestrafor make a low home goal total plausible.
- Böljan scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Landvetter concede only 0.9 goals per game and 9 in 10 away matches.
- Böljan's home goals came in bursts (5-0 vs Qviding) but they were shut out by Åstorp and Hestrafor at home.
- Landvetter's away defence has conceded more than one goal in only 3 of 10 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIF Boljan under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's away defensive record and Böljan's recent home blankings make an away win-to-nil a realistic but low-probability outcome given Böljan's 2.0 home goals-per-game average.
- Landvetter have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 8 league matches.
- Landvetter's away record shows 9 goals conceded in 10 games, with several low-scoring wins.
- Böljan were shut out at home by Åstorp (0-1) and managed only 1 goal against Hestrafor.
- H2H: Landvetter won 1-0 at Böljan in August 2025.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%