Brooklyn FC1Rhode Island FC3

HT 0–2Sat 3 Oct 2026, 23:00 Settling…

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 03:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Brooklyn have conceded in every home match and sit 2W-4D-9L, while Rhode Island's 7W-2D-6L overall comes with a 3W-0D-5L away split.

Rhode Island are the likelier winner and a low-scoring night is more probable than not, though Brooklyn's last six matches produced 20 goals. Under 3.5 goals at 2.30 is the one quoted price here that offers something.

Context

The conditions here are known form rather than new information: Brooklyn have conceded in all seven home matches and have one clean sheet in 15, while Rhode Island have won three of eight away matches without drawing. No lineup, injury or venue evidence was supplied, so the matchup is shaped by the teams' records but not transformed by context.

Rhode Island have one four-goal performance against this opponent, drawn from a single league meeting.
It is one match from 23 May 2026 and this time Brooklyn are the hosts, so it establishes no rate for what happens here. Its value is showing how far the scoreline can run when Rhode Island get on top, and Brooklyn have conceded in every home match in the tracked window.
- 23 May 2026, USL Championship at Rhode Island: Rhode Island 4-1 Brooklyn
- The only league meeting between the clubs in the supplied record, so the sample is a single match.
Brooklyn's home window shows a side that scores occasionally and concedes essentially every time.
Seven matches is a small sample, but the direction is consistent: no clean sheet across it and four defeats. It means Rhode Island's attack, which scores 1.13 per away match, does not need a big night to get on the board.
- Home window 20 June to 30 September 2026: 7 matches, 1W-2D-4L, 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per home match
- No clean sheet in any of the seven home matches in that window.
Rhode Island's away record is markedly weaker than their home split, where they are 4W-2D-1L with 0.71 conceded per game.
Not one of their eight away matches has ended level, so their away points have come only in wins. A scoring rate of 1.13 per away match shows those wins were not built on a heavy attack.
- Away window 13 June to 26 September 2026: 8 matches, 3W-0D-5L
- 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per away match, with two clean sheets in the away split
- Most recent away match: 0-2 defeat at Charleston Battery on 26 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island have the better defence and the stronger overall record, and Brooklyn concede in almost every match.
- Rhode Island are 7W-2D-6L with 0.93 conceded per game and five clean sheets in 15
- Brooklyn have conceded in 14 of 15 matches and kept one clean sheet
- Rhode Island won the May meeting 4-1 and drew 1-1 in July, both at home
- Rhode Island scored 1.13 goals per away match
BetBugs · Match WinnerRhode Island FCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score rarely before the break, which keeps the half-time score level most often.
- Brooklyn's first halves average 1.33 total goals
- Rhode Island's first halves average 0.87 total goals
- Brooklyn's last six listed matches produced no first-half goals for them
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals scored
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal expectations are moderate and neither side dominates the closing period.
- Brooklyn's second halves average 1.80 total goals
- Rhode Island's second halves average 1.33 total goals
- Rhode Island concede only 0.53 second-half goals per game
- Brooklyn have conceded nine second-half goals in their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn are the weaker side statistically but play at home, and Rhode Island have lost five of eight away matches without drawing any. Rhode Island have the better defence and the stronger overall record, and Brooklyn concede in almost every match.
- Brooklyn are 2W-4D-9L in 15 USL Championship matches, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.13 per game
- Brooklyn's home split is 1W-2D-4L, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.57 per game
- Rhode Island are 7W-2D-6L with 0.93 conceded per game and five clean sheets in 15
- Brooklyn have conceded in 14 of 15 matches and kept one clean sheet
BetBugs · Double ChanceBrooklyn FC or Rhode Island FCEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score rarely before the break, which keeps the half-time score level most often. Brooklyn's slow starts and Rhode Island's steadier first halves favour the visitors before the break.
- Brooklyn's first halves average 1.33 total goals
- Rhode Island's first halves average 0.87 total goals
- Rhode Island average 0.47 first-half goals while Brooklyn concede 1.00 per first half
- Brooklyn conceded first-half goals in four of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Rhode Island FCEstimated chance81%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both goal aggregates sit below 3.5 and Rhode Island have the tightest defence in the evidence.
- Rhode Island average 2.20 goals per match across 15 games
- Brooklyn's home matches average 2.71 total goals
- Rhode Island kept five clean sheets in 15 matches
- Rhode Island's last six listed matches contained 12 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price2.30Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have shown they can be blanked, and Rhode Island's away scoring record is thin.
- Rhode Island failed to score in 4 of 8 away matches
- Rhode Island kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Brooklyn failed to score in 3 of 7 home matches
- Brooklyn scored only four goals across their last six listed matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn have been shut out or held to one goal in almost all of their recent matches.
- Brooklyn average 1.14 goals per home match
- Brooklyn failed to score in 3 of 7 home matches and in four of their last six
- Rhode Island have conceded 1.13 per away match
- Brooklyn score 1.00 per match across 15 games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBrooklyn FC under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's away scoring rarely reaches two goals even against modest defences.
- Rhode Island failed to score in 4 of 8 away matches
- Rhode Island average 1.13 goals per away match
- Rhode Island scored once or not at all in four of their last six listed matches
- Brooklyn have conceded 1.57 per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalRhode Island FC under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's record shows they almost always concede, at home and overall.
- Brooklyn have kept one clean sheet in 15 matches
- Brooklyn conceded in all 7 home matches
- Rhode Island scored in 11 of 15 matches
- Brooklyn concede 2.13 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScoreRhode Island FC to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island concede in most away matches and Brooklyn score in the majority of their home games.
- Brooklyn scored in 8 of 15 matches and 4 of 7 at home
- Rhode Island conceded in 6 of 8 away matches
- Rhode Island conceded 1.13 per away game
- Brooklyn average 1.14 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScoreBrooklyn FC to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A clean-sheet away win requires both a Rhode Island win and a Brooklyn blank, and Brooklyn usually score at home.
- Brooklyn scored in 4 of 7 home matches
- Rhode Island won 7 of 15 and kept 5 clean sheets
- Rhode Island lost 5 of 8 away matches
- Brooklyn conceded in all 7 home matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn concede regularly before half-time and Rhode Island chip in often enough to make a first-half goal likely.
- Brooklyn's first halves average 1.33 combined goals (0.33 for, 1.00 against)
- Rhode Island's first halves average 0.87 combined goals (0.47 for, 0.40 against)
- Brooklyn conceded a first-half goal in four of their last six listed matches
- Rhode Island scored a first-half goal in three of their last six listed matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quiet first-half attacks on both sides make a goal at each end before the break improbable.
- Brooklyn average 0.33 first-half goals for and 1.00 against
- Rhode Island average 0.47 for and 0.40 against in first halves
- Brooklyn have not scored a first-half goal in six listed matches
- First-half goal averages for both teams sit below 0.5
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's low-scoring recent halves suggest the line is slightly more likely to be missed.
- Rhode Island's second halves average 1.33 total goals
- Rhode Island scored six goals in their last six listed second halves
- Rhode Island concede 0.53 second-half goals per game
- Brooklyn's last six listed second halves produced 13 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Rhode Island FC: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Rhode Island FC matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Rhode Island FC4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL Championship