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Predictions graded

Rhode Island FC3Monterey Bay1

HT 1–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–0100%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Aug 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Rhode Island are likely to win or draw, but the odds are too short for value.

The best edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, while first-half goals over 0.5 and the home win are overpriced.

Context

Rhode Island are six points behind fourth place with two games in hand.
- The top eight in each conference qualify, but higher seeds host in the fixed single-elimination bracket.
- The club's official preview highlights the top-four chase as a key storyline.
Away record: 0W-3D-8L.
- They have conceded 22 goals in 11 away matches, an average of 2.0 per game.
- Recent away form includes losses to El Paso, Lexington, and Phoenix Rising.
Covelo took charge immediately after his appointment in late April.
- The club framed the hire around implementing a possession-based identity.
- Monterey Bay's recent results show inconsistency, with heavy losses and occasional draws.
2024: Monterey Bay 2-2 Rhode Island.
- 2025: Rhode Island 1-1 Monterey Bay.
- Both matches were in USL Championship play.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Rhode Island FC

1.39fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

Rhode Island's strong home form and Monterey Bay's winless away record support a home win, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rhode Island FC or Draw

1.11fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90%

−10.0ppshort

Rhode Island have lost only once at home all season, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Monterey Bay's leaky away defense (1.9 conceded/game) and Rhode Island's home scoring (8 of 9) support a moderate over lean, but the odds are slightly against us.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 65% estimate is well below the 80% implied by the odds, making this a poor value bet despite the moderate confidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's strong home form and Monterey Bay's winless away record, combined with the home side's top-four playoff motivation, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Rhode Island home record: 4W-4D-1L, 15 goals for, 7 against in 9 home matches
- Monterey Bay away record: 0W-3D-8L, 9 goals for, 22 against in 11 away matches
- Rhode Island last 5 form: LWLWW; Monterey Bay last 5 form: DLLLL
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRhode Island FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island have lost only once at home all season, while Monterey Bay have not won away, making the double chance of home win or draw highly probable.
- Rhode Island home record: 4W-4D-1L
- Monterey Bay away record: 0W-3D-8L
- H2H: both meetings ended in draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRhode Island FC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high likelihood of being level at the break, making a draw the most probable first-half result.
- Rhode Island leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Monterey Bay leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 27%
- Both teams have a high proportion of first-half draws
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for Rhode Island is a level first half followed by a second-half push, especially at home, making draw/Rhode Island a plausible HT/FT double.
- Rhode Island have drawn at half-time in 53% of matches
- Rhode Island have won 39% of matches overall
- Monterey Bay have lost 62% of matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / Rhode Island FCEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's leaky away defense and both teams' moderate scoring rates suggest a decent chance of at least three total goals.
- Rhode Island average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match overall
- Monterey Bay average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match overall
- Monterey Bay away matches average 2.8 total goals (9 scored, 22 conceded in 11 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Monterey Bay's poor away defense makes it likely Rhode Island will score, while Monterey Bay's away scoring record is not negligible.
- Rhode Island have scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- Monterey Bay have scored in 7 of 11 away matches
- Monterey Bay have conceded in 10 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, with Monterey Bay especially active early, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Rhode Island average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded
- Monterey Bay average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Monterey Bay have scored in the first half in 8 of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's defense tends to weaken in the second half, and Rhode Island's home scoring often comes after the break, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Rhode Island average 1.1 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Monterey Bay average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded
- Monterey Bay away matches average 1.5 second-half goals conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With no specific corner data, the league average suggests a near coin-flip for over 8.5 corners, so this is a low-confidence lean based on typical USL Championship totals.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL Championship average corners per match is approximately 9.5
- Both teams' attacking styles suggest moderate corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without card data, the league average of around 4 cards per match makes over 3.5 a reasonable but low-confidence prediction.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- USL Championship average cards per match is approximately 4.0
- No disciplinary trends available
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Rhode Island FC has struggled to convert win projections

Rhode Island FC has fulfilled 1 of 4 win predictions, a 25% success rate. Expected fulfilment based on average probability was 1.8, indicating underperformance. All three missed predictions ended in draws or losses, with two draws at home.

Recent evidence for Rhode Island FC4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL Championship