Tampa Bay Rowdies2Rhode Island FC0

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 10:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Tampa Bay are likely to avoid defeat at home, but the odds offer no value.

The best bet is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.40, with a +13-point edge. Avoid the away win and over 3.5 total goals.

Context

Rhode Island won 5-0 at home in October 2025.
- Rhode Island won 3-0 away in May 2025.
- The most recent meeting in May 2026 ended 1-1.
Dominic Casciato is in his first full offseason as Rowdies head coach.
- Only three players returned from the 2025 squad.
- Virtually the entire 2026 scoring group is new to the club.
Rhode Island away record: 3W-0D-5L.
- Tampa Bay home record: 5W-2D-2L.
- Rhode Island have lost their last two away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay Rowdies' superior league position and home advantage, combined with Rhode Island's poor away record, support a home win, though the H2H psychology slightly tempers confidence.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st in the league with 41 points from 19 matches, while Rhode Island FC are 6th with 25 points from 17 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have a home record of 5W-2D-2L, scoring 20 goals and conceding 14 in 9 home matches.
- Rhode Island FC have an away record of 3W-0D-5L, scoring 12 and conceding 12 in 8 away matches.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 7 of their last 10 away matches, showing strong overall form, but their home form is less dominant.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Tampa Bay's strong home form and Rhode Island's poor away record, the home side is very likely to avoid defeat, making double chance a high-confidence pick.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have lost only 2 of 9 home matches this season.
- Rhode Island FC have lost 5 of 8 away matches, with no draws away.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies are unbeaten in 7 of their last 10 away matches, but at home they have 2 losses in 9.
- The last meeting between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTampa Bay Rowdies or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's tendency to lead at halftime and their superior first-half scoring give them an edge, though the probability is moderate due to Rhode Island's occasional resilience.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have led at halftime in 73% of their matches.
- Rhode Island FC have trailed at halftime in 20% of their matches.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 1.2 first-half goals, while Rhode Island average 0.6.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have a strong home record, often starting fast.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostTampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Tampa Bay often leads at halftime, converting that into a full-time win is less certain, especially given the recent draw between these teams.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have led at halftime in 73% of matches and won 12 of 19 overall.
- Rhode Island FC have lost 5 of 8 away matches.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 5 of 9 home matches.
- The last meeting ended in a draw, indicating Rhode Island can compete.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostTampa Bay Rowdies / Tampa Bay RowdiesEstimated chance35%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have attacking output and Tampa Bay's home games tend to be high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 2.1 goals scored per match overall, and 2.2 goals per home match.
- Rhode Island FC average 1.8 goals scored per match overall, and 1.5 goals per away match.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies' home matches have seen an average of 3.8 total goals (20 scored + 14 conceded in 9 games).
- Rhode Island FC's away matches have seen an average of 3.0 total goals (12 scored + 12 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits, suggesting both teams are likely to find the net.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have scored in 8 of 9 home matches this season.
- Rhode Island FC have scored in 6 of 8 away matches this season.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have conceded in 6 of 9 home matches.
- Rhode Island FC have conceded in 6 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tampa Bay's strong first-half scoring tendency could lead to early goals, but Rhode Island's lower first-half output makes this a lower-confidence over bet.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 1.2 first-half goals per match overall.
- Rhode Island FC average 0.6 first-half goals per match overall.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies have led at halftime in 73% of their matches.
- Rhode Island FC have led at halftime in only 33% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the combined second-half averages exceed 1.5 goals, supporting an over bet.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 0.9 second-half goals per match (2.1 total - 1.2 first half).
- Rhode Island FC average 1.2 second-half goals per match (1.8 total - 0.6 first half).
- Tampa Bay Rowdies' home matches have seen an average of 1.6 second-half goals (3.8 total - 2.2 first half).
- Rhode Island FC's away matches have seen an average of 1.8 second-half goals (3.0 total - 1.2 first half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this prediction is speculative and based on typical USL Championship match patterns, hence low confidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 0 corners per match (data missing).
- Rhode Island FC average 0 corners per match (data missing).
- No corner trends can be established from the available information.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without card statistics, this prediction is speculative and based on typical USL Championship match patterns, hence low confidence.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Tampa Bay Rowdies average 0 yellow cards per match (data missing).
- Rhode Island FC average 0 yellow cards per match (data missing).
- No disciplinary trends can be established from the available information.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Tampa Bay Rowdies have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Tampa Bay Rowdies have fulfilled 4 of 7 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 58.9% and an expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions. Their missed predictions included one draw and two losses, while their matched predictions averaged a slightly lower probability (56.8%) than their missed ones (61.7%). The current 55% probability sits within their historical range of 45% to 72%.

Recent evidence for Tampa Bay Rowdies7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship