Rhode Island FC1Indy Eleven0

HT 1–0Wed 30 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Rhode Island's home record against an Indy Eleven side with one away win in 11 is the tension, but the visitors took the most recent meeting 1-0 and each of the last five was decided by one goal.

Rhode Island look likelier winners, yet 1.67 asks too much and can be left. Three quoted prices carry a case: fewer than 2.5 goals at 2.00, the first half ending level at 2.38 and one team failing to score at 1.95.

Context

Indy Eleven lost 0-2 at home to Miami FC on 26 September, a result a club watcher said tightened the Eastern Conference playoff race, while a supporters' account counted five games left in the regular season. The club itself framed the next step as looking to bounce back on Wednesday, pointing at this Rhode Island trip. Indy Eleven are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff fight, which gives this midweek away game added competitive weight. The precise table position comes from regional trackers rather than an official league table, so treat the margin as approximate.
- Indy Eleven lost 0-2 at home to Miami FC on 26 September 2026.
- After the result, a club watcher wrote that the Eastern Conference playoff race had tightened, and an Indy Eleven supporters' account counted five regular-season games remaining.
- Indy Eleven posted 'Looking to bounce back on Wednesday' following the defeat, pointing to this Rhode Island fixture.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Before the 26 September home defeat to Miami FC, Indy Eleven reportedly lost Rendón and Sharp from the projected starting XI as late scratches, and the lineup was rebuilt minutes before kickoff from limited options. If either problem carries into Wednesday's trip to Rhode Island, it would test squad depth on a quick turnaround after a home loss. The detail rests on a single club-watcher account rather than the club, and no update on the two players' availability for this fixture has been confirmed, so it is a point to monitor rather than a settled selection change.
- A club watcher reported that Rendón and Sharp were late scratches from Indy Eleven's starting lineup before the 0-2 home loss to Miami FC on 26 September 2026.
- The same account said the starting lineup was reassembled minutes before kickoff from limited options.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Rhode Island's 1-0 win on 13 September 2025 is the only one of these five meetings played at Rhode Island.
Whatever the wider form says, this series has produced one-goal finishes and nothing wider, so a tight scoreline is the sensible base case and a two-goal margin has not appeared anywhere in the sequence.
- Last five meetings and scores: 30 May 2026 Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island; 13 September 2025 Rhode Island 1-0 Indy Eleven; 12 July 2025 Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island; 3 November 2024 Indy Eleven 2-3 Rhode Island; 7 August 2024 Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island.
Indy Eleven's two away matches in their recent six produced a 2-2 draw at New Mexico United on 12 September and a 1-2 loss at Phoenix Rising on 30 August.
The road numbers are the core of the case against Indy on Wednesday: a side that has scored 23 goals in 14 home league games has managed nine in 11 away from Indianapolis, and the two away trips in the recent sample returned one point from six.
- Standings snapshot dated 28 September 2026: Indy Eleven away record 11 played, 1 win, 3 draws, 7 losses, 9 goals for and 18 against; home record 14 played, 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses.
- Indy Eleven's tracked away window of seven matches reads 1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses with 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Rhode Island have been dependable at home while Indy Eleven have won once in 11 league away games, and the home side has taken four of the last five meetings between them.
- Rhode Island: 4W-2D-1L in 7 tracked home matches, 1.71 goals for and 0.71 against per game
- Indy Eleven: 1W-3D-7L in 11 league away games, 9 scored and 18 conceded
- Indy Eleven tracked away split: 1W-1D-5L, 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Head-to-head: the home side won 4 of the last 5 meetings, each by one goal
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRhode Island FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
First-half scoring is modest for both teams, and half-time parity is the most common state in their recent matches.
- Rhode Island average 0.53 first-half goals overall
- Indy Eleven average 0.47 first-half goals overall
- Rhode Island's last six matches were level at half-time in three, and Indy's away first-half scoring is 0.14 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With roughly one second-half goal expected in total, neither side pulling ahead is the single most likely second-half outcome.
- Rhode Island's home second-half split: 1.0 scored, 0.29 conceded
- Indy Eleven's away second-half split: 0.57 scored, 0.86 conceded
- Second-half goals in these teams' matches average around 1.3
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island have been dependable at home while Indy Eleven have won once in 11 league away games, and the home side has taken four of the last five meetings between them. Recent meetings have been settled by a single goal and both sides' venue records include a meaningful share of draws.
- Rhode Island: 4W-2D-1L in 7 tracked home matches, 1.71 goals for and 0.71 against per game
- Indy Eleven: 1W-3D-7L in 11 league away games, 9 scored and 18 conceded
- Rhode Island: 5 draws in 12 league home games
- Indy Eleven: 3 draws in 11 league away games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRhode Island FC or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island create far more before the break at home, while Indy Eleven barely score in first halves on the road. First-half scoring is modest for both teams, and half-time parity is the most common state in their recent matches.
- Rhode Island average 0.71 first-half goals at home and concede 0.43
- Indy Eleven average 0.14 first-half goals and concede 0.86 in away matches
- Rhode Island average 0.53 first-half goals overall
- Indy Eleven average 0.47 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRhode Island FC or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
These two sides have consistently played tight, low-scoring games, and Rhode Island's home defence has been stingy.
- Both teams' venue splits average 2.43 total goals per match
- Head-to-head scores: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 3-2, 1-0
- Rhode Island concede 0.71 per home match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Indy Eleven rarely score more than once on the road, so one team being held out is the more likely outcome.
- Indy Eleven average 0.71 goals per tracked away match
- Rhode Island kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Four of the last five meetings ended with one team scoreless
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent meetings have seen the home side score once rather than twice, and Rhode Island's home goals come at a modest rate.
- Rhode Island scored 7 goals across 7 tracked home matches
- Indy Eleven kept 2 clean sheets in 7 tracked away matches
- Head-to-head: Rhode Island's home wins over Indy were both 1-0
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRhode Island FC under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven's away scoring output has been limited and Rhode Island's home defence has allowed few goals.
- Indy Eleven away scoring average: 0.71 per tracked match
- Indy Eleven league away record: 9 goals in 11 games
- Rhode Island have conceded 4 goals in 7 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIndy Eleven under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island have conceded in most of their recent matches, so a full clean sheet is not the likelier outcome.
- Rhode Island conceded in 4 of 7 tracked home matches
- Indy Eleven scored in both of their last two away matches
- Indy Eleven have 9 league away goals this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIndy Eleven to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven concede frequently on the road and Rhode Island have scored regularly at home.
- Indy Eleven kept 1 clean sheet in 7 tracked away matches, conceding 1.71 per game
- Rhode Island average 1.71 goals per tracked home match
- Rhode Island's league home record: 20 goals in 12 games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRhode Island FC to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rhode Island's home wins are a minority share of home matches, and clean sheets came in only three of seven.
- Rhode Island kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches, so most home games featured an away goal
- Indy Eleven scored in both of their last two away matches
- Rhode Island drew 2 of 7 home matches, which cannot be win-to-nil
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half rate is around one goal per game, which makes at least one goal before the break slightly more likely.
- Rhode Island's home first-half averages: 0.71 scored, 0.43 conceded
- Indy Eleven's away first-half averages: 0.14 scored, 0.86 conceded
- Rhode Island's last six matches produced first-half goals in three
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
The away side's first-half output is very low, so one team leading or a blank half is far more likely than both scoring.
- Indy Eleven's away first-half scoring average is 0.14 per match
- Rhode Island's home first-half scoring average is 0.71
- Rhode Island's first-half goals-conceded rate at home is 0.43
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's second-half venue averages reach one and a half goals, and Rhode Island often close games out without conceding.
- Rhode Island's home second-half total averages 1.29 goals
- Indy Eleven's away second-half total averages 1.43 goals
- Rhode Island did not concede a second-half goal in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance64%

Prediction history

Rhode Island FC: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Rhode Island FC matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Rhode Island FC4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL Championship