Gefle IF0Vasalunds IF1

HT 0–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 01:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Gefle's solid home record meets a Vasalunds side with one away win in 11, two suspended regulars and three straight wins in this fixture.

Gefle avoiding defeat is the likeliest outcome, with a home win the bolder read. At 1.43 for Gefle to win or draw and 2.25 for a home win, both prices offer something; the draw at 3.5 does not.

Context

A suspension removes a player from the matchday squad outright, which is a firmer constraint on Vasalunds IF than a fitness doubt a coach could gamble on, and it lands in the same week the side conceded five at home. Gefle arrive from a 1-0 away win at AFC Eskilstuna on 20 September, so the visitors would rather not be rebuilding a back line for this particular game. The forced change also has a knock-on effect on the bench, because the substitute defender who would normally cover an injury or a red card is now likely to be on the pitch. The listing does not say whether Soelberg would have started, so this alters the depth chart rather than a confirmed first-choice pairing.
- P. Soelberg is listed as unavailable for this fixture through a yellow-card suspension.
- Soelberg appears in the Vasalunds IF squad as a defender wearing number 5.
- Vasalunds IF lost 5-1 at home to Assyriska FF on 21 September 2026.
- P. Soelberg started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 00:59 · Europe/BucharestGefle IF vs Vasalunds IF fixture pagewww.transfermarkt.de · 25 Sep 2026
Dejene Öhman's absence sits at the opposite end of the team from Soelberg's, so Vasalunds IF cannot cover both with one reshuffle and must name replacements in two separate units. That matters away at Gefle because the visitors' recent road games include a 1-2 defeat at FBK Karlstad on 12 September and a 2-3 loss at Umeå FC on 30 August, results that leave little margin for losing attacking options. Having two unavailable players from one fixture's disciplinary list also leaves the bench thinner than usual if the game turns late. What the listing does not show is whether either player would have been selected, so the effect is on the options available rather than on a settled line-up.
- M. Dejene Öhman is listed as unavailable for this fixture through a yellow-card suspension.
- Dejene Öhman appears in the Vasalunds IF squad as an attacker wearing number 19.
- M. Dejene Öhman started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 00:59 · Europe/BucharestGefle IF vs Vasalunds IF fixture pagewww.transfermarkt.de · 25 Sep 2026
Vasalunds IF arrive on their worst sequence of the season, sitting 13th with six wins, six draws and 11 defeats from 23 league games.
That recent form sits awkwardly beside the head-to-head record, in which Vasalunds have won the last three meetings with Gefle, so the two most recent reference points pull in opposite directions. It also means the visitors are trying to end the slide with a squad already missing two regulars through suspension.
- Vasalunds IF's last five Ettan Norra matches (30 August to 21 September 2026) produced one draw and four defeats, one point from 15 available.
- Their 2026 league record across 23 games is six wins, six draws and 11 defeats, with 34 goals scored and 48 conceded, for 13th place on 24 points.
- The run includes a 5-1 home defeat by Assyriska FF on 21 September 2026.
- They drew 0-0 at home with Hammarby Talang on 17 September 2026.
The May result is the most recent instance of these clubs solving each other and the only meeting in 2026, so it is the natural reference point for both benches this weekend. It also completes a pattern: Gefle have lost the last two meetings, one of them on their own ground at Gavlevallen in April 2025. Gefle's results since then have been erratic, ranging from a 5-0 defeat at Stocksund to a 3-1 home win over Järfälla, so the pattern has not fixed their level. The May game drew only 105 spectators and neither line-up is likely to be repeated exactly, which limits how much weight a single 1-0 scoreline can carry.
- Vasalunds IF beat Gefle IF 1-0 in the Ettan Norra fixture on 14 May 2026.
- The match was watched by 105 spectators.
- Vasalunds IF had also won the previous meeting, 2-1 at Gavlevallen on 18 April 2025.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 00:59 · Europe/BucharestVasalunds IF 1-0 Gefle IF, 14 May 2026www.transfermarkt.de · 14 May 2026Gefle IF 1-2 Vasalunds IF, 18 April 2025www.transfermarkt.com · 18 Apr 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Gefle's solid home record and Vasalunds' single away win in 11, plus two away suspensions, point to the home side.
- Gefle are 9th on 30 points; Vasalunds are 13th on 24.
- Gefle's home league record is 5W-2D-4L (16 scored, 18 conceded); Vasalunds' away record is 1W-4D-6L (15 scored, 25 conceded).
- Vasalunds lose suspended defender P. Soelberg and forward M. Dejene Öhman, both recent starters.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGefle IFEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging well under a goal before the break, the first half is more likely to end level than to be won.
- Gefle average 0.43 first-half goals at home and Vasalunds 0.57 away.
- Gefle concede 0.71 and Vasalunds 1.0 first-half goals in these splits.
- Two of Vasalunds' last five halves of football finished goalless at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates are moderate, so a level second half is the single most likely outcome.
- Second halves in these splits average roughly 1.7 goals.
- Vasalunds have drawn four away league games and Gefle two at home.
- Gefle's second-half scoring at home is 0.86 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Gefle's solid home record and Vasalunds' single away win in 11, plus two away suspensions, point to the home side. Vasalunds' habit of drawing away and Gefle's mixed home results keep a real share for the level score.
- Gefle are 9th on 30 points; Vasalunds are 13th on 24.
- Gefle's home league record is 5W-2D-4L (16 scored, 18 conceded); Vasalunds' away record is 1W-4D-6L (15 scored, 25 conceded).
- Vasalunds have drawn four of 11 away league games, their most common away result.
- Gefle have drawn three of 23 league matches, only one of them at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGefle IF or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle's first-half scoring at home and Vasalunds' habit of conceding before the break give the home side the edge, though early leads are rare for both. With both teams averaging well under a goal before the break, the first half is more likely to end level than to be won.
- Gefle average 0.43 first-half goals at home; Vasalunds concede 1.0 in first halves away.
- Vasalunds have conceded a first-half goal in four of their last six matches.
- Gefle average 0.43 first-half goals at home and Vasalunds 0.57 away.
- Gefle concede 0.71 and Vasalunds 1.0 first-half goals in these splits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGefle IF or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both defences concede heavily and Vasalunds' away games have regularly produced three goals or more.
- Gefle home league games average 3.09 goals; Vasalunds away games average 3.64.
- Vasalunds have conceded 25 goals in 11 away league games.
- Five of Vasalunds' last six matches produced three or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Vasalunds score regularly away and Gefle both score and concede at home, so both teams finding the net is the likelier outcome.
- Both teams scored in 11 of Vasalunds' 15 tracked matches.
- Gefle's home league games produced 34 goals in 11 (16 for, 18 against).
- Vasalunds have scored in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle's home scoring against a defence conceding more than two per away game makes two goals more likely than not.
- Gefle average 1.45 home league goals; Vasalunds concede 2.27 per away game.
- Gefle scored three against Järfälla on 12 September.
- Gefle scored two or more in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGefle IF over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalunds' away scoring sits at one goal per game and they are without a regular forward.
- Vasalunds average 1.36 away league goals.
- Vasalunds scored fewer than two in three of their last six matches.
- Suspended forward M. Dejene Öhman started five of the last five matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVasalunds IF under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalunds score away often enough that Gefle are more likely to concede than to shut them out.
- Vasalunds have scored in five of their last six matches.
- Vasalunds average 1.36 away league goals.
- Gefle have kept only three clean sheets in 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVasalunds IF to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalunds concede more than two goals per away game, so Gefle scoring is the strongly favoured outcome.
- Vasalunds have conceded 25 goals in 11 away league games.
- Gefle have scored in four of their last six matches.
- Vasalunds conceded five at home to Assyriska FF on 21 September.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGefle IF to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score before half-time at moderate rates and Vasalunds concede early goals often, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Gefle average 0.43 first-half goals at home; Vasalunds 0.57 away.
- Vasalunds have conceded a first-half goal in four of their last six matches.
- Gefle conceded first-half goals in three of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Neither team averages even 0.6 first-half goals in these splits, making both scoring before the break unlikely.
- Neither side averages more than 0.6 first-half goals in these venue splits.
- Vasalunds kept a goalless first half in two of their last six matches.
- Gefle's first-half scoring average across 15 matches is 0.33.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring at both venues runs close to two goals, so two or more is a slight favourite.
- Gefle's home split gives 0.86 second-half goals for and 1.0 against; Vasalunds' away split gives 0.57 for and 1.0 against.
- Second-half goals from these splits total roughly 1.7 per game.
- Three of Gefle's last six matches featured two or more second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%