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Predictions graded

Sollentuna FK1FC Stockholm Internazionale2

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 00:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Ettan Norra's leaders, FC Stockholm, arrive on a seven-match league winning run to face a Sollentuna side 12th in the table that has lost seven of 13 competitive matches.

FC Stockholm are the likelier winners, though the last two league meetings both ended 1-1, and Sollentuna keeping a clean sheet is the least likely outcome of all. No quoted price is worthwhile: 1.43 on an away win asks about 70 per cent, more than the case supports.

Context

FC Stockholm arrive on a seven-match league winning run and scored at least twice in every one of those wins, so Sollentuna cannot expect a low-event afternoon against the side leading the division. The run has put FC Stockholm clear at the top of Ettan Norra with the closing rounds approaching, which raises the value of each remaining fixture. Sollentuna's most recent match, a 0-0 draw at FBK Karlstad on 19 September, is the counterpoint: it is the one recent example of the weaker side in this fixture keeping a game tight. A caveat sits alongside the streak, because FC Stockholm's only defeat in that period was a 3-0 Svenska Cupen loss to Allsvenskan club Hammarby IF on 26 August.
- FC Stockholm won 2-0 away at Karlbergs BK on 20 September for a seventh consecutive Ettan Norra victory, with Matheo Canoilas and Lukas Sunesson scoring.
- A football stats account's 20 September post placed FC Stockholm first in Ettan Norra on 51 points after 23 rounds and named Sollentuna away on 26 September as their next fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Sollentuna sit 12th on 24 points; FC Stockholm lead Ettan Norra on 51.
A 1-1 draw is the most recent measurement between these two, and it came at FC Stockholm's ground rather than at Sollentunavallen, where Saturday's game is played. Sollentuna have drawn nine of their 23 league matches this season, three of them at home, so turning games against stronger opposition into single points has been a regular outcome for them. It is one result from early May, though, and FC Stockholm's own 23-round record contains only three draws.
- 3 May 2026, Ettan Norra: Stockholm Internazionale 1-1 Sollentuna, a draw in the most recent league meeting between the clubs.
Sollentuna have conceded 2.14 goals per home game over that seven-match span, with only one clean sheet and both teams on the scoresheet in five of the seven. Their most recent home fixture, a 2-3 defeat by Enköping on 16 September, followed the same shape, with Sollentuna 1-3 down at half-time. That record is the main counterweight to the expectation that FC Stockholm will shut them out, although it also shows how often the home side is breached.
- Sollentuna home split, 18 June to 16 September 2026: 7 matches, 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game, 1 clean sheet, both teams scoring in 5 of 7.
The stored match record carried no venue, so FC Stockholm's own confirmation that the game is at Sollentunavallen with a 16:00 kick-off on Saturday 26 September supplies the concrete setting for readers. Sollentuna's latest home fixture, a 2-3 defeat by Enköping on 16 September, is the nearest available example of how their home games have unfolded this month. Nothing in the checked sources points to a venue change, a surface problem or unusual conditions, so the practical relevance is limited to establishing where and when the match is played.
- FC Stockholm's official account set its next match as Sollentuna away on Saturday 26 September, kick-off 16:00, played at Sollentunavallen.
- The club's post after the Karlberg win also listed the same fixture as an away game on 26 September with a 16:00 kick-off.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88.5%

−8.5ppshort

FC Stockholm's away record before half-time makes it unlikely both teams score in the opening period.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half goal numbers point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

FC Stockholm Internazionale

1.43fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69.9%

−5.9ppshort

The division's leading side is beating everyone at present and Sollentuna concede regularly at home.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

−0.8ppshort

Sollentuna's home matches have produced plenty of goals and FC Stockholm score heavily.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

−5.1ppshort

FC Stockholm have almost always shut out their away hosts, so one side being blanked is the more likely outcome.

First Half WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

FC Stockholm Internazionale

1.88fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 53.2%

−1.2ppshort

FC Stockholm score before the break regularly while Sollentuna concede early at home more than once a game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
The division's leading side is beating everyone at present and Sollentuna concede regularly at home.
- FC Stockholm lead Ettan Norra on 51 points, with 16 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 23 games (55 scored, 19 conceded)
- Their away record is 7W 2D 2L in the league, and the tracked away split shows 6 clean sheets in 7 matches
- They have won seven league games in a row, most recently 2-0 away at Karlberg on 20 September
- Sollentuna are 12th and have lost 7 of 13 competitive matches in this window, conceding 1.92 goals per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
FC Stockholm score before the break regularly while Sollentuna concede early at home more than once a game.
- FC Stockholm average 1.0 first-half goals away and 1.13 across 15 competitive matches
- Sollentuna concede 1.57 first-half goals per home match and 1.38 overall
- Sollentuna were behind at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm score heavily after the break and Sollentuna concede late goals at home.
- FC Stockholm average 1.47 second-half goals overall and 1.29 away
- They scored twice after the break at Karlberg on 20 September
- Sollentuna concede 0.57 second-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The division's leading side is beating everyone at present and Sollentuna concede regularly at home. Sollentuna have drawn often this season and the two most recent league meetings with this opponent ended level.
- FC Stockholm lead Ettan Norra on 51 points, with 16 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 23 games (55 scored, 19 conceded)
- Their away record is 7W 2D 2L in the league, and the tracked away split shows 6 clean sheets in 7 matches
- Sollentuna have drawn 9 of their 23 league games, and 3 of 11 at home
- The last two league meetings with FC Stockholm both ended 1-1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm score before the break regularly while Sollentuna concede early at home more than once a game. FC Stockholm concede very little before the break and several of their recent games were level at half-time.
- FC Stockholm average 1.0 first-half goals away and 1.13 across 15 competitive matches
- Sollentuna concede 1.57 first-half goals per home match and 1.38 overall
- Sollentuna average 0.71 first-half goals at home and FC Stockholm concede 0.14 first-half goals away
- FC Stockholm were level at half-time in 2 of their last 4 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance87%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Sollentuna's home matches have produced plenty of goals and FC Stockholm score heavily.
- Sollentuna home games average 3.43 total goals (1.29 for, 2.14 against)
- FC Stockholm away games average 2.57 total goals, and their last six matches averaged 3.67
- Sollentuna's last six matches produced 13 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
FC Stockholm have almost always shut out their away hosts, so one side being blanked is the more likely outcome.
- FC Stockholm have conceded once in their 7 away matches in the tracked window
- Sollentuna have failed to score in 2 of their 7 home matches
- Only 4 of FC Stockholm's 15 competitive matches had both teams scoring
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home scoring rate is modest and this is the strongest defence they will have faced.
- Sollentuna average 1.29 home goals and have 21 goals in 23 league games
- FC Stockholm have conceded 0.67 goals per game across 15 competitive matches
- Sollentuna were held to 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSollentuna FK under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm score two or more in most games and Sollentuna concede more than two per home match.
- FC Stockholm average 2.29 goals per away game and 2.6 across 15 competitive matches
- They have scored two or more in five of their last six matches
- Sollentuna concede 2.14 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Stockholm Internazionale over 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna concede regularly at home and FC Stockholm have scored in almost every match this season.
- Sollentuna have one clean sheet in 7 home matches and concede 2.14 per home game
- FC Stockholm have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- FC Stockholm scored 3, 3, 4 and 5 goals in four recent league wins
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Stockholm Internazionale to scoreEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna find the net in most home games, which makes a full shut-out less likely than not.
- Sollentuna scored in 5 of their 7 home matches
- They scored in the 1-1 league meeting with FC Stockholm on 3 May 2026
- FC Stockholm conceded in the 0-3 cup defeat to Hammarby FF on 26 August
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSollentuna FK to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Away wins are common for FC Stockholm, but so is Sollentuna scoring at home, which rules out a win without conceding.
- Sollentuna scored in 5 of their 7 home matches
- FC Stockholm conceded in the cup against Hammarby FF and in the 1-1 league meeting on 3 May 2026
- Sollentuna have scored 9 goals across 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first-half goal numbers point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.
- Sollentuna average 0.71 first-half goals at home and 1.57 first-half goals against
- FC Stockholm average 1.0 first-half goals away
- Sollentuna's last six matches produced 10 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
FC Stockholm's away record before half-time makes it unlikely both teams score in the opening period.
- FC Stockholm have conceded 0.14 first-half goals per away match and 0.4 overall
- Sollentuna average 0.71 first-half goals at home
- Sollentuna were behind at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches, scoring in only some of them
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's second halves are low-scoring, and only one side is likely to add goals after the break.
- Sollentuna's home second halves average 1.14 total goals and their last six produced three goals
- Sollentuna score 0.46 and concede 0.54 second-half goals per game overall
- FC Stockholm concede 0.14 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.43 price requires 69.9%, above our 64.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Sollentuna FK: 3/5 recent goals projections matched

3 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Sollentuna FK matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sollentuna FK5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jun·Ettan - Norra