Atletico Ottawa0Supra Quebec2

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–625%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 7–19On targetOn target 3–9CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Ottawa's 7W-3D-1L home record against Supra's 3W-2D-5L away form and five-game winless run makes the home win at 2.40 (implied 42% vs 52% estimated) the standout value, with home-or-draw at 1.48 the safer angle.

Expect goals: both teams concede 1.9 per game and four of the last five meetings cleared 2.5, supporting over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score. Avoid the away win and draw-no-bet home lines, and note Aparicio's suspension plus Supra's short cup turnaround as the key swing factors.

Context

Atletico Ottawa sit third in the Canadian Premier League with 34 points from 22 games. Their home record of seven wins, three draws and one loss is the strongest in the division after leaders Cavalry FC.
That home record is built on 21 goals scored and 13 conceded in 11 home matches, a solid base for controlling this game. Supra Quebec's away form is far weaker: three wins, two draws and five losses from ten road games, with 21 goals conceded. The gap between Ottawa's home strength and Supra's away record is the main reason this match leans toward the home side.
- Atletico Ottawa home record: 7 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 11 league games, with 21 goals scored and 13 conceded.
- Supra Quebec away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 10 league games, with 18 goals scored and 21 conceded.
- Atletico Ottawa are third in the table with 34 points; Supra Quebec are seventh with 22 points.
Ottawa sit third in the standings, while Supra are sixth on 22 points, eight behind the playoff places with a game in hand on Vancouver.
The table positions give both teams a direct reason to chase a result rather than treat the fixture as routine. Ottawa are protecting their place in the top group, and Supra need points to stay within reach of the top four. The gap is not yet decisive for Supra because of the game in hand, so the incentive is real but the margin for error remains.
- The CPL preview says Ottawa enter the match third in the standings.
- The same preview places sixth-placed Supra on 22 points, eight points behind the playoff positions with a game in hand on Vancouver.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:23 · Europe/BucharestCPL match previewwww.cplsoccer.com · 18 Sep 2026
Supra Quebec are seventh in the Canadian Premier League with 22 points from 21 matches. Their recent league form reads L-L-L-D-W, with the win coming at home against Forge on 28 August.
The three straight league losses came against HFX Wanderers, Vancouver FC and Forge, with Supra conceding two or more goals in each. That defensive pattern is a concern against an Ottawa side averaging 1.9 goals per game at home. Ottawa's own form is mixed, with a 3-0 loss at Forge on 12 September, so this is not a one-sided picture.
- Supra Quebec lost 0-2 at home to HFX Wanderers on 12 September 2026.
- Supra Quebec lost 2-3 away to Vancouver FC on 6 September 2026.
- Supra Quebec lost 0-1 away to Forge in the Canadian Championship on 15 September 2026.
The two clubs have met five times in 2026 across the Canadian Premier League and Canadian Championship, with Ottawa winning two, Supra winning two and one draw.
Ottawa's 2-1 away win on 16 August is the most recent meeting and the only one played under league rules since June. Supra's 3-1 home win on 8 July came in the Canadian Championship, a different competition. The head-to-head record is close overall, but Ottawa have scored in every meeting this year, which matters for a side averaging 1.9 goals per game.
- 16 August 2026: Atletico Ottawa won 2-1 away at Supra du Quebec in the Canadian Premier League.
- 9 June 2026: Atletico Ottawa won 5-3 at home against Supra du Quebec in the Canadian Premier League.
- 8 July 2026: Supra du Quebec won 3-1 at home against Atletico Ottawa in the Canadian Championship.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge (Ottawa 7-3-1 at home vs Supra 3-2-5 away) plus a positive recent H2H pattern and Supra's poor recent form make Ottawa the most likely winner, though Ottawa's leaky defence (1.9 conceded/game) caps confidence.
- Atletico Ottawa home record 2026: 7W-3D-1L in 11 home matches, 21 goals for / 13 against.
- Supra Quebec away record 2026: 3W-2D-5L in 10 away matches, 18 goals for / 21 against.
- H2H last 5: Ottawa won 3 (incl. 2-1 away on 2026-08-16), Supra won 1, 1 draw.
- Ottawa last 5 league form: L-D-W-L-W; Supra last 5: L-L-L-D-L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAtletico OttawaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ottawa's strong home resilience (single home defeat all season) against a Supra side that has lost half its away games and is winless in its last five makes the home-or-draw combination the safest result angle.
- Ottawa home record: only 1 home loss in 11 (7W-3D-1L).
- Supra away record: 5 losses in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Ottawa unbeaten in 4 of 5 (3W, 1D, 1L).
- Ottawa home goals conceded 13 in 11 vs Supra away goals conceded 21 in 10.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAtletico Ottawa or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and frequently reach the interval level, making a drawn first half the single most likely half-time outcome.
- Ottawa half-time result was a draw in 6 of last 15 matches.
- Supra half-time result was a draw in 6 of last 15 matches.
- Ottawa first-half goals 0.5 for / 1.1 against; Supra 0.7 for / 0.9 against.
- H2H 2026-08-16 and 2026-08-11 were level or near-level at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra rarely leads at the interval (27%) and Ottawa's home control reduces the chance of an early away lead, making the home-or-draw first-half combination the safer pick.
- Ottawa trailed at half-time in only 53% of matches despite poor overall starts.
- Supra led at half-time in just 27% of matches.
- Ottawa home form strong (7-3-1) with controlled first halves at home.
- Supra first-half goals conceded 0.9 per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAtletico Ottawa or DrawEstimated chance68%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede heavily (1.9 each) and the H2H series has been consistently high-scoring, so the combined goal expectation comfortably clears 2.5.
- Ottawa averages 1.9 goals for and 1.9 conceded per game (last 15).
- Supra averages 1.5 goals for and 1.9 conceded per game (last 15).
- H2H last 5 produced 3, 6, 4, 8 and 1 goals — four of five went over 2.5.
- Ottawa recent matches include 5-3, 3-3, 4-0, 3-2 scorelines.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score at a steady rate and concede regularly, and the H2H pattern shows both sides finding the net in nearly every recent meeting.
- Ottawa conceded in 11 of last 15 matches; 1.9 goals against per game.
- Supra scored in 13 of last 15 matches; 1.5 goals for per game.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Ottawa home: 13 goals conceded in 11 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ottawa's habit of conceding early (1.1 first-half goals against, trailing at half in over half their games) combined with Supra's active first halves makes an early goal exchange plausible.
- Ottawa first-half goals conceded average 1.1 per game.
- Supra first-half goals average 0.7 and conceded 0.9.
- H2H 2026-08-11 first half produced 2 goals; 2026-07-08 produced 2; 2026-06-09 produced 3.
- Ottawa trailed at half-time in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides do most of their scoring and conceding after the break, and recent H2H meetings have been decided by second-half goals, supporting a higher second-half total.
- Ottawa total goals average 1.9 for / 1.9 against with only 0.5 scored in first halves, implying second-half weighting.
- Supra concede 1.9 per game with 0.9 in first halves, implying second-half leakage.
- H2H 2026-08-16 finished 2-1 with a second-half winner; 2026-08-11 had 4 second-half goals.
- Both teams average high total goal involvement across recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ottawa average nearly two goals at home against a Supra side conceding over two per away game, making a two-goal home tally likely.
- Ottawa home record: 21 goals in 11 home matches (1.9 per game).
- Ottawa scored 4 and 3 in recent home matches.
- Supra away: 21 goals conceded in 10 away matches (2.1 per game).
- Ottawa home form 7W-3D-1L with consistent scoring.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAtletico Ottawa over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ottawa's consistent home scoring and Supra's poor away defensive record make an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Ottawa scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Ottawa home: 21 goals in 11 home games.
- Supra away: 21 goals conceded in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Ottawa scored in all five meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAtletico Ottawa to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ottawa's leaky defence and Supra's regular scoring make a home win without conceding improbable.
- Ottawa conceded in 11 of last 15 matches (1.9 per game).
- Supra scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: Supra scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Ottawa home: 13 goals conceded in 11 home games.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance74%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average close to five corners each and generate high shot volume, so the combined corner count should clear 8.5.
- Ottawa averages 4.5 corners per game; Supra averages 4.9.
- Combined recent corner averages exceed 9 per match.
- H2H 2026-08-16 produced 4+6 corners; 2026-08-11 produced 6+3.
- Both teams generate regular attacking volume (Ottawa 11.3 shots, Supra 15.1 shots per game).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams register around four to five shots on target per game, and their combined output consistently exceeds the 8.5 line.
- Ottawa averages 4.1 shots on target per game; Supra averages 5.0.
- Combined average exceeds 9 shots on target per match.
- Supra recent matches include 10 and 7 shots on target.
- Ottawa recent matches include 5 and 6 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High foul counts and a heated recent H2H record with multiple cards and reds make the over on 3.5 total cards the value side.
- Ottawa averages 2.0 yellow cards per game; Supra averages 2.4.
- Supra averages 0.6 red cards per game, adding card volume.
- H2H 2026-08-16 saw 4+1 yellows and a red; 2026-08-11 saw 5+5 yellows.
- Both teams average double-digit fouls (Ottawa 10.9, Supra 13.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance63%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% offers no cushion against a side that has lost half its away matches and is winless in five.

Prediction history

Atletico Ottawa's Over 2.5 goals projection has been evenly split in recent home-heavy evidence

Atletico Ottawa fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions, with an average estimated probability of 59.5% against 2.4 expected fulfilments. The matched and missed probabilities were nearly identical at 59% and 60%, so the outcomes did not separate on probability level. At home the record was 1 fulfilment from 3, while the single away sample was fulfilled. The current 68% estimate sits above the historical range of 58% to 60%.

Recent evidence for Atletico Ottawa4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Canadian Premier League