Mirassol2Botafogo0

HT 2–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–931%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 12–12On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Under 2.5 goals at 1.88, with a +5 point edge.

Avoid Mirassol or Draw and First Half Under 1.5, as both are overpriced by the market.

Context

Mirassol are 15th in Serie A with 29 points from 27 matches, one point above the relegation line.
They have a home record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which is better than their away form. A win here would give them breathing room, but a loss could drop them into the relegation zone depending on other results.
- Mirassol are 15th with 29 points, one point above the relegation line.
- Their home record is 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses.
Botafogo interim head coach Rodrigo Bellão was appointed on 18 August from the club's Under-20 role.
Botafogo have decided not to continue Bellão's interim tenure and are prioritising a permanent appointment for the international break. That means this match may be among his last in charge, and the unsettled staff situation can affect tactical continuity and selection decisions. The report does not specify whether any immediate changes are planned for the Mirassol trip.
- Botafogo officially appointed Bellão, then the club's Under-20 coach, as interim head coach on 18 August.
- On 14 September, ge reported that Botafogo had decided not to continue Bellão's interim tenure and were prioritising a new appointment for the international break.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:15 · Europe/BucharestBotafogo official appointment noticebotafogo.com.br · 18 Aug 2026ge — Botafogo coaching searchge.globo.com · 14 Sep 2026
Botafogo are 14th in Serie A with 32 points from 26 matches, four points above the relegation line.
Their recent league form is DDLLL, including a 3-0 loss to Flamengo on August 30 and a 1-0 loss to Vitoria on August 16. They need points to avoid being dragged into the relegation fight.
- Botafogo are 14th with 32 points, four points above the relegation line.
- Their recent league form is DDLLL, including a 3-0 loss to Flamengo on August 30 and a 1-0 loss to Vitoria on August 16.
Botafogo's last five league matches are DDLLL.
They lost 3-0 to Flamengo on August 30, 1-0 to Vitoria on August 16, and 3-2 to Atletico Paranaense on August 24. This run shows defensive issues, conceding seven goals in those three matches.
- Botafogo lost 3-0 to Flamengo on August 30.
- Botafogo lost 1-0 to Vitoria on August 16.
- Botafogo lost 3-2 to Atletico Paranaense on August 24.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Mirassol or Draw

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Mirassol's home form and Botafogo's poor away record support the home side avoiding defeat, but the odds already reflect this and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown inconsistent form and a high draw tendency in this matchup, with Mirassol's home draws and Botafogo's away struggles supporting a stalemate.
- Mirassol home record: 5W 5D 4L in 14 home matches this season
- Botafogo away record: 4W 2D 7L in 13 away matches
- H2H last 3 meetings: 1 home win, 2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's solid home form and Botafogo's poor away record make the home side avoiding defeat likely.
- Mirassol home record: 5W 5D 4L (71% unbeaten at home)
- Botafogo away record: 4W 2D 7L (only 31% away wins)
- H2H: Botafogo have not won at Mirassol in last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of being level at the break, and the head-to-head supports a first-half stalemate.
- Mirassol leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Botafogo leading at half-time in 40%, trailing in 47%
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows a strong second-half edge, making a draw in the second half a reasonable outcome.
- Mirassol second-half record: 4W 5D 5L in last 14 home matches
- Botafogo second-half record: 3W 4D 6L in last 13 away matches
- Both teams have similar second-half win rates around 30%
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given both teams' tendencies.
- Mirassol have drawn at half-time in 33% of matches
- Botafogo have drawn at half-time in 13% of matches
- Overall draw rate for both teams combined is around 25%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent head-to-head has been low-scoring, supporting a low total.
- Mirassol average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match overall
- Botafogo average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2 of 3 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown ability to score while also conceding, making a both-teams-score outcome plausible.
- Mirassol have scored in 10 of 14 home matches this season
- Botafogo have scored in 10 of 13 away matches this season
- Both teams have conceded regularly: Mirassol 1.5 goals per game, Botafogo 1.3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Mirassol average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Botafogo average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.1 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring rates in the second half for both teams support a modest over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Mirassol average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Botafogo average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.35 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is near the 9.5 line.
- Mirassol average 4.8 corners per match, Botafogo average 4.9
- Combined average corners per match is 9.7
- Recent H2H meetings averaged 10.3 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo's high shot count pushes the combined total above the line, though Mirassol's lower volume adds uncertainty.
- Mirassol average 12.3 shots per match, Botafogo average 18.1
- Combined average shots per match is 30.4
- Botafogo's shot volume is significantly higher than Mirassol's
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is slightly above the line, but Mirassol's low output makes this a coin flip.
- Mirassol average 3.4 shots on target per match
- Botafogo average 6.2 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target is 9.6
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams commit a high number of fouls and receive multiple cards, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Mirassol average 2.4 yellow cards per match, Botafogo average 2.9
- Combined average yellow cards is 5.3
- Both teams have high foul rates: Mirassol 12.3, Botafogo 13.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Mirassol has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

Mirassol has fulfilled Over 4.5 cards in 4 of 9 recent predictions. The average estimated probability was 59.4%, but only 44% of matches actually went over. At home, Mirassol has gone over in just 2 of 5 matches, suggesting the current home fixture may continue this trend.

Recent evidence for Mirassol9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A