Jeonnam Dragons0Suwon3

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Suwon FC are strong favorites to beat Jeonnam Dragons and move into second place, but the odds are efficient with no clear edge on the main markets.

The only marginal value is Suwon to score over 1.5 goals at 1.70, while most other markets are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Suwon FC sit third on 45 points from 24 matches, one point behind second-placed Daegu who have played a game more. K League 2's top two earn direct promotion.
A win at Jeonnam would move Suwon into second place, making three points more valuable than a draw in their promotion pursuit. The table gap is narrow enough that this fixture carries direct consequences for their final standing.
- K League's September 16 table lists Suwon FC third with 45 points from 24 matches.
- The same table lists Daegu second with 46 points from 25 matches.
- K League 2's champions and runners-up gain direct promotion.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:05 · Europe/BucharestK League Suwon FC tablewww.kleague.com · 16 Sep 2026Volleyball Korea photo reportv.daum.net · 14 Sep 2026
Suwon City FC are third in K League 2 with 45 points and are in the promotion playoff places.
The most recent head-to-head match was a 5-0 home win for Suwon City FC on 10 July 2026. That result suggests Suwon can create many chances against Jeonnam's defence, but it was over two months ago and Jeonnam have since had some better home results.
- On 10 July 2026, Suwon City FC beat Jeonnam Dragons 5-0 at home in K League 2.
- Suwon City FC scored five goals and kept a clean sheet in that match.
Suwon midfielder Matheus Frizzo missed the September 13 draw with Cheonan after a head injury sustained on September 5.
His availability for this match remains unresolved, which may alter Suwon's attacking selection and final-third configuration. Without a confirmed return date, the uncertainty itself is the main football consequence.
- Frizzo suffered two head-to-head collisions in Suwon FC's September 5 draw at Yongin and left the match in the 16th minute.
- He was absent from Suwon FC's September 13 draw with Cheonan.
- After Seo Jae-min scored against Cheonan, Suwon FC's players held Frizzo's shirt while marking his recovery.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:05 · Europe/BucharestInterFootball injury reportsports.news.nate.com · 8 Sep 2026Volleyball Korea photo reportv.daum.net · 14 Sep 2026MoneyToday match reportwww.mt.co.kr · 13 Sep 2026
Jeonnam Dragons have 21 points from 24 matches and sit 16th in the 17-team K League 2.
Jeonnam are only eight points above the relegation line, so they have a clear need to pick up points. Their home record is modest with three wins, four draws and three losses, but they have drawn their last two home matches.
- Jeonnam Dragons are 16th with 21 points from 24 matches.
- The relegation line is 17th place, currently held by Gimhae City with 13 points.
- Jeonnam's home record is 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Suwon

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's low loss rate and Jeonnam's low win rate make a Suwon win or draw highly likely, supported by both teams' season-long form.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent goal averages and Suwon's high-scoring away matches suggest a strong chance of at least three total goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding averages indicate a high likelihood of at least one goal before halftime.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Suwon to score

1.13fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Suwon's consistent away scoring and Jeonnam's poor clean sheet record make it unlikely that Jeonnam will keep a clean sheet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's superior league position, away form, and dominant recent H2H win give them a clear edge, though Jeonnam's home resilience and Suwon's occasional draws temper the probability.
- Suwon are 3rd with 45 points from 24 matches, while Jeonnam are 16th with 21 points from 24.
- Suwon's away record is 6W-4D-3L with 24 goals scored and 19 conceded in 13 away matches.
- Jeonnam's home record is 3W-4D-3L with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Suwon won the most recent H2H 5-0 at home on 2026-07-10.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's low loss rate and Jeonnam's low win rate make a Suwon win or draw highly likely, supported by both teams' season-long form.
- Suwon have lost only 3 of 24 league matches this season.
- Jeonnam have won only 4 of 24 league matches.
- Suwon's away record includes 6 wins and 4 draws in 13 matches.
- Jeonnam's home record includes 4 draws and 3 losses in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SuwonEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suwon's slightly better first-half performance and Jeonnam's tendency to trail at halftime give Suwon a modest edge, but the probability remains low due to draw likelihood.
- Suwon led at halftime in 33% of recent matches, while Jeonnam led in 20%.
- Suwon's first-half goal difference is +0.2 per match, Jeonnam's is -0.1.
- Suwon have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Jeonnam have trailed at halftime in 27% of recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSuwonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Suwon win is a plausible scenario given Suwon's second-half strength and Jeonnam's first-half resilience, but the combined probability is low.
- Suwon have drawn at halftime in 40% of recent matches.
- Suwon have won 50% of recent matches overall.
- Jeonnam have drawn at halftime in 47% of recent matches.
- Suwon's away record shows 6 wins and 4 draws in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/SuwonEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and Suwon's high-scoring away matches suggest a strong chance of at least three total goals.
- Suwon average 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match in recent form.
- Jeonnam average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match in recent form.
- Suwon's away matches average 3.3 total goals (24 scored + 19 conceded in 13 games).
- Jeonnam's home matches average 2.4 total goals (12 scored + 12 conceded in 10 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home and away fixtures, making both teams scoring likely.
- Jeonnam have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Suwon have conceded in 9 of their 13 away matches.
- Suwon have scored in 12 of their 13 away matches.
- Jeonnam have conceded in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding averages indicate a high likelihood of at least one goal before halftime.
- Jeonnam average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in recent form.
- Suwon average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- In Suwon's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
- In Jeonnam's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends, especially Suwon's away attacking output, suggest a moderate chance of two or more second-half goals.
- Suwon's away matches average 1.7 second-half goals (estimated from total and first-half data).
- Jeonnam's home matches average 1.2 second-half goals (estimated from total and first-half data).
- Suwon have scored in the second half in 10 of their last 13 away matches.
- Jeonnam have conceded in the second half in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's consistent away scoring and Jeonnam's poor clean sheet record make it unlikely that Jeonnam will keep a clean sheet.
- Jeonnam have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Suwon have failed to score in only 1 of their 13 away matches.
- Suwon average 1.85 goals scored per away match.
- Jeonnam concede an average of 1.2 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSuwon to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam's home scoring ability and Suwon's away defensive vulnerabilities make a Suwon clean sheet unlikely.
- Suwon have kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 away matches.
- Jeonnam have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Jeonnam average 1.2 goals scored per home match.
- Suwon concede an average of 1.46 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostJeonnam Dragons to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam's home scoring average and Suwon's away defensive record suggest a moderate chance of Jeonnam scoring at least two goals.
- Jeonnam average 1.2 goals scored per home match.
- Jeonnam have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
- Suwon concede an average of 1.46 goals per away match.
- Suwon have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their 13 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostJeonnam Dragons over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suwon's strong away scoring record and Jeonnam's defensive weaknesses make it likely that Suwon will score at least two goals.
- Suwon average 1.85 goals scored per away match.
- Suwon have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their 13 away matches.
- Jeonnam concede an average of 1.2 goals per home match.
- Jeonnam have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSuwon over 1.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 25%; the price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Suwon has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Suwon has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent match-winner predictions, with a sample size of 4. The average estimated probability was 52.5%, close to the 50% fulfilment rate. Both missed predictions ended in draws, and Suwon performed equally at home and away with 1 fulfilment in 2 matches each.

Recent evidence for Suwon4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·K League 2