Gimhae2Jeonnam Dragons2

HT 2–2Sat 5 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 16:16 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is the first-half draw at 2.20 (model 50% vs implied 45.5%), and both teams to score at 1.73 (model 60% vs implied 57.8%).

Avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals at 1.30 and the double chance for Jeonnam or draw at 1.40, as both are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

Gimhae sit bottom of K League 2 with 12 points from 22 matches and are in the relegation place.
Their home record is the worst in the division: 0 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with only 7 goals scored and 24 conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to control matches at home, and Jeonnam may find space even though they are also poor away. The sample is limited to 10 matches, but the lack of any home win is a strong indicator of their current level.
- Gimhae home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 7 goals and conceded 24 at home.
- Their last home match was a 0-3 loss to Yongin City on 2026-08-30.
Gimhae defender Ho-Yeung Sung was sent off in the last league match against Yongin.
His second yellow card leaves his availability for Jeonnam's visit unresolved. If suspended, Gimhae must change their central midfield, but no team update has confirmed the ban yet.
- Gimhae's official 30 August match report lists Sung in midfield against Yongin.
- The same report says he received a second yellow card six minutes after his first and was sent off.
To watchSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 16:14 · Europe/BucharestK LEAGUE — Gimhae 0-3 Yongin match reportwww.kleague.com · 30 Aug 2026
Jeonnam are 15th in K League 2 with 19 points from 22 matches, seven points above the relegation line.
Their away record is 1 win, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with 14 goals scored and 26 conceded. This poor away form means they may not be able to dominate even against the bottom side. The single away win came against Cheonan City on 2026-07-10, but most away trips have ended in defeat.
- Jeonnam away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 8 losses in 13 matches.
- They have scored 14 goals and conceded 26 away.
- Their only away win was 1-0 at Cheonan City on 2026-07-10.
Gimhae are bottom of the table and have the worst goal difference in the league at -26.
In their last five league matches, they lost to Yongin City 0-3, Suwon City FC 0-2, Suwon Bluewings 0-1, and drew with Gyeongnam FC 1-1. They have failed to score in three of those five games, which shows a lack of attacking threat. This run suggests they are struggling to compete even against mid-table sides.
- Last five league results: L, L, D, L, D.
- Lost 0-3 at home to Yongin City on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 0-2 away to Suwon City FC on 2026-08-22.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam's slightly better recent form and Gimhae's winless home record give the visitors a narrow edge, though both teams are poor.
- Gimhae home record: 0W-2D-8L, 7 goals for, 24 against (10 home matches)
- Jeonnam away record: 1W-4D-8L, 14 goals for, 26 against (13 away matches)
- Gimhae last 5 form: LLDLD; Jeonnam last 5 form: WWLLD
- H2H last meeting: Jeonnam 0-1 Gimhae (May 2026)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJeonnam DragonsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae have not won at home all season, making the double chance for Jeonnam or draw a strong statistical play.
- Gimhae home win rate: 0% (0/10)
- Jeonnam away loss rate: 62% (8/13)
- Gimhae home draws: 2/10; Jeonnam away draws: 4/13
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Jeonnam DragonsEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half scoring profiles and high draw rates at half-time, making a level first half likely.
- Gimhae half-time results: 20% leading, 33% trailing, 47% drawing
- Jeonnam half-time results: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored and conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given both teams' tendency to draw and low scoring rates.
- Gimhae home draws: 2/10 (20%)
- Jeonnam away draws: 4/13 (31%)
- Combined draw probability from recent form: ~25%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam are slightly more likely to lead at half-time, and a draw is also common, making this double chance strong.
- Gimhae first-half trailing rate: 33%
- Jeonnam first-half leading rate: 27%
- Gimhae first-half draw rate: 47%
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Jeonnam DragonsEstimated chance70%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, and recent matches have frequently exceeded 2.5.
- Gimhae home matches average 3.1 total goals (7+24 in 10)
- Jeonnam away matches average 3.1 total goals (14+26 in 13)
- Gimhae last 5 matches: 3,2,2,3,4 total goals
- Jeonnam last 5 matches: 1,1,3,3,2 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding records in their respective home/away splits, supporting both teams scoring.
- Gimhae scored in 8 of last 10 home matches
- Jeonnam scored in 10 of last 13 away matches
- Gimhae conceded in all 10 home matches
- Jeonnam conceded in 11 of 13 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around one first-half goal combined, and recent matches show first-half scoring in most games.
- Gimhae first-half goals: 0.5 per match average; conceded 0.6
- Jeonnam first-half goals: 0.5 per match average; conceded 0.5
- Gimhae last 5 first halves: 3,1,0,0,3 goals
- Jeonnam last 5 first halves: 0,1,0,0,1 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals for both teams, with combined averages above 1.5.
- Gimhae second-half goals: 0.6 per match average; conceded 1.0
- Jeonnam second-half goals: 0.6 per match average; conceded 1.2
- Gimhae last 5 second halves: 0,1,2,1,1 goals
- Jeonnam last 5 second halves: 1,0,2,2,1 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae's home defensive record is abysmal, conceding in every home game, making a clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Gimhae conceded in all 10 home matches this season
- Gimhae home goals against average: 2.4 per match
- Jeonnam scored in 10 of 13 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJeonnam Dragons to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam's away defense is leaky, and Gimhae usually find the net at home, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Jeonnam conceded in 11 of 13 away matches
- Jeonnam away goals against average: 2.0 per match
- Gimhae scored in 8 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimhae to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gimhae cannot win to nil because they have not won at home and have not kept a clean sheet at home.
- Gimhae have 0 home wins this season
- Gimhae have never kept a home clean sheet
- Jeonnam have scored in 10 of 13 away matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeonnam's away record is poor, and they rarely keep clean sheets away, making a win to nil unlikely.
- Jeonnam have only 1 away win this season
- Jeonnam kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 13 away matches
- Gimhae scored in 8 of 10 home matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance75%