Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Sollentuna FK2Enkopings SK3

HT 1–3Wed 16 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 23:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Enkopings SK to win at 2.70 is the only clear value bet, with an 8-point edge over the market.

Avoid the heavily overpriced double chance and first-half markets, and treat goal totals as coin flips despite both teams' scoring tendencies.

Context

Enkoping sit 7th in Ettan Norra with 35 points from 21 matches.
Their away record shows four wins, one draw, and five losses in ten games, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. This mixed form away from home suggests they may not dominate this match, though their recent away win at Vasalund shows they can still pick up points on the road.
- Enkoping's away record this season: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 15 and conceded 15 goals away from home.
Enköpings SK sit seventh on 35 points, six behind second-placed Hammarby TFF, while Sollentuna FK are 11th on 23 points, level with 13th-placed Umeå FC in the negative-qualification position.
The contrasting league positions mean Enköping may push for a win to close the playoff gap, while Sollentuna could adopt a more cautious approach to protect their cushion above the relegation playoff line. This could lead to a more open match if Enköping commit forward, but Sollentuna's need for points may also force them to take risks late if the score is level.
- The official Ettan table places Enköpings SK seventh on 35 points, six points behind second-placed Hammarby TFF.
- Sollentuna FK are 11th on 23 points, level with 13th-placed Umeå FC in the negative-qualification position.
- The fixture is listed as Ettan Norra Round 22 at Sollentunavallen on 16 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:41 · Europe/BucharestEttan Norra table and Round 22 scheduleettanfotboll.se · 14 Sep 2026Swedish football qualification guidesverigesfotboll.se · 14 Sep 2026
Sollentuna are 11th in Ettan Norra with 23 points from 21 matches.
Their home record is three wins, three draws, and four losses in ten matches, with just nine goals scored and 14 conceded. This poor home form suggests they may find it difficult to control the game, though they did beat Gefle 1-0 at home in their last home league match.
- Sollentuna's home record this season: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 9 and conceded 14 goals at home.
The teams have met three times in the last two league seasons.
In the most recent meeting on 17 May 2026, Enkoping won 1-0 at home. The previous two league meetings were a 0-0 draw and a 2-1 Enkoping win, so Enkoping have not lost to Sollentuna in their last three league encounters.
- 2026-05-17: Enkoping 1-0 Sollentuna (Ettan Norra)
- 2025-08-02: Sollentuna 0-0 Enkoping (Ettan Norra)
- 2025-04-12: Enkoping 2-1 Sollentuna (Ettan Norra)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sollentuna FK or Draw

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

−16.4ppshort

Sollentuna's home resilience and Enkopings SK's inconsistent away form make the double chance a solid option.

Win Both HalveswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.01fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Neither team has shown the consistency to win both halves, making 'No' a strong pick.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Sollentuna FK or Draw

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

−20.0ppshort

Sollentuna are less likely to trail at half time at home, and Enkopings SK often draw the first half.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined team averages of 3.0 and 2.8 goals per match support a decent chance of over 2.5, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, but the odds price BTTS as more likely than our estimate suggests.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to see first-half goals, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5, leaving no value on our estimate.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.20fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

First-half scoring is limited, but the odds on 'No' are extremely short and offer no value relative to our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Enkopings SK's superior league position and away form give them an edge, supported by H2H psychology.
- Enkopings SK are 7th with 35 points, while Sollentuna FK are 11th with 23 points.
- Enkopings SK away record: 4W-1D-5L, Sollentuna home record: 3W-3D-4L.
- Last 5 H2H: Enkopings SK won 2, drew 1, lost 1 (one match not in last 5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnkopings SKEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home resilience and Enkopings SK's inconsistent away form make the double chance a solid option.
- Sollentuna home record: 3W-3D-4L, with 6 of 10 home matches avoiding defeat.
- Enkopings SK away record: 4W-1D-5L, losing half of away matches.
- Sollentuna recent form: LWLWW in last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSollentuna FK or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with a draw being the most common outcome.
- Sollentuna half-time results: 20% lead, 47% trail, 33% draw.
- Enkopings SK half-time results: 27% lead, 33% trail, 40% draw.
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by an Enkopings SK win is a plausible but low-probability scenario.
- Enkopings SK have won 4 away matches this season.
- Sollentuna have drawn 3 home matches.
- H2H: Enkopings SK won 1-0 in the most recent meeting.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Enkopings SKEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the consistency to win both halves, making 'No' a strong pick.
- Sollentuna have not won both halves in any recent match.
- Enkopings SK have not won both halves in any recent match.
- Both teams rarely dominate for a full 90 minutes.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna are less likely to trail at half time at home, and Enkopings SK often draw the first half.
- Sollentuna first half: 20% win, 33% draw, 47% loss.
- Enkopings SK first half: 27% win, 40% draw, 33% loss.
- Combined, Sollentuna or draw in first half occurs in 53% of Sollentuna matches and 73% of Enkopings SK matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSollentuna FK or DrawEstimated chance60%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' goal averages and recent H2H suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Sollentuna average goals per match: 1.3 for, 1.7 against (total 3.0).
- Enkopings SK average goals per match: 1.3 for, 1.5 against (total 2.8).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2 of 4 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making BTTS likely.
- Sollentuna scored in 12 of 15 recent matches.
- Enkopings SK scored in 11 of 15 recent matches.
- Both teams conceded regularly: Sollentuna 1.7 goals against, Enkopings SK 1.5 goals against.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Sollentuna especially vulnerable early.
- Sollentuna first half goals: 0.7 for, 1.1 against (total 1.8).
- Enkopings SK first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.7 against (total 1.2).
- Sollentuna trailing at half time in 47% of matches, Enkopings SK leading in 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is moderate, but the over 1.5 line is a coin flip.
- Sollentuna second half goals: 0.6 for, 0.6 against (total 1.2).
- Enkopings SK second half goals: 0.8 for, 0.8 against (total 1.6).
- Combined second half average is 1.4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring is limited, and both teams scoring before the break is uncommon.
- Sollentuna first half goals: 0.7 for, 1.1 against.
- Enkopings SK first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.7 against.
- Only 2 of 15 Sollentuna matches and 3 of 15 Enkopings SK matches had both teams score in first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Sollentuna FK has fulfilled 3 of 5 Over 2.5 projections

Sollentuna FK has fulfilled 3 of 5 Over 2.5 projections. The average estimated probability was 65%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 is close to expectation. At home, only 1 of 3 projections was fulfilled, while away 2 of 2 were fulfilled, indicating stronger over-performance on the road.

Recent evidence for Sollentuna FK5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jun·Ettan - Norra