Avai1Vila Nova1

HT 1–1Tue 15 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 8–11On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 05:47 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on Vila Nova to win at 2.88 (model edge +10 points).

The double chance 'Draw or Vila Nova' at 1.53 is also a solid option. Avoid the Under 2.5 goals market despite the likely low-scoring game, as the odds are too short.

Context

Avai are 17th in Serie B with 29 points from 27 matches, sitting in the relegation zone. Their home record is 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses from 13 games.
Avai have struggled at home, winning only five of 13 matches and scoring 14 goals while conceding 13. Their recent home form includes a 0-1 loss to Atletico Goianiense on 2026-08-30 and a 2-1 win over Sport Recife on 2026-08-19. This inconsistency at home is a concern against a strong Vila Nova side, but Avai's need for points may push them to attack more, which could leave gaps at the back.
- Avai are 17th with 29 points, level with the relegation line.
- Home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Atletico Goianiense on 2026-08-30.
- Won 2-1 at home against Sport Recife on 2026-08-19.
Vila Nova are third in Serie B with 47 points, in the promotion play-off places. Their home record is excellent with 10 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, but away they have only 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses.
Vila Nova's away form is significantly worse than their home form. They have lost 7 of 14 away matches and conceded 19 goals away compared to only 11 at home. Recent away results include a 0-5 loss to Athletic Club on 2026-09-04 and a 0-0 draw with Operario-PR on 2026-08-23. This suggests Vila Nova may struggle to impose themselves at Avai, giving the home side a chance despite the table gap.
- Vila Nova away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses in 14 matches.
- Lost 0-5 away to Athletic Club on 2026-09-04.
- Drew 0-0 away with Operario-PR on 2026-08-23.
- Conceded 19 goals in 14 away matches.
The teams have met five times in recent Serie B seasons. Vila Nova won the most recent match 2-0 at home on 2026-05-17.
In the last meeting, Vila Nova controlled the game and won 2-0 at home. However, the previous two matches between these teams ended in draws, including a 2-2 draw at Vila Nova in November 2025 and a 1-1 draw at Avai in July 2025. This suggests that while Vila Nova won the latest encounter, Avai have been competitive at home in this fixture, making the outcome less certain.
- Vila Nova beat Avai 2-0 at home on 2026-05-17.
- Previous meeting at Avai ended 1-1 on 2025-07-19.
- Vila Nova drew 2-2 at home with Avai on 2025-11-08.
Avaí play four of their five September Serie B fixtures away from Florianópolis, with Vila Nova the only opponent scheduled at Ressacada during that run.
This is Avaí’s only home setting within an away-heavy month, concentrating the practical value of home preparation and familiar conditions into this fixture. The schedule does not by itself change player availability or tactical approach, but it makes this match the sole chance for Avaí to use their home ground during September.
- Avaí’s September Serie B schedule contains five matches, four away from home.
- The published schedule lists Avaí vs Vila Nova at Ressacada on 14 September at 21:30.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharestge: Avaí have four away games in one monthge.globo.com · 4 Sep 2026Avaí FC: referee appointment for Avaí vs Vila Novaavai.com.br · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's stronger league position and recent form outweigh Avai's home advantage, though Avai's relegation fight adds motivation.
- Vila Nova rank 3rd with 47 points; Avai rank 17th with 29 points.
- Vila Nova away record: 4W 3D 7L; Avai home record: 5W 3D 5L.
- Vila Nova last 5 form: WLWDW; Avai last 5 form: LLLWW.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVila NovaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's overall consistency and Avai's mixed home form make a Vila Nova win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Vila Nova have lost only 8 of 27 matches; Avai have lost 14 of 27.
- Avai home record shows 5 wins and 5 losses in 13 games.
- H2H last 5: Vila Nova won 2, Avai won 1, 2 draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Vila NovaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, with Avai's low first-half scoring and Vila Nova's moderate first-half record supporting a draw.
- Avai led at half-time in only 13% of matches; trailed in 33%.
- Vila Nova led at half-time in 40% of matches; trailed in 33%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Vila Nova win is plausible given Vila Nova's stronger second-half performance and Avai's tendency to fade.
- Vila Nova have won 14 of 27 matches overall.
- Avai have drawn 5 of 27 matches.
- Vila Nova's away record includes 3 draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Vila NovaEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages suggest a tight match, with under 2.5 goals slightly more likely.
- Avai average 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Vila Nova average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making both teams to score a reasonable outcome.
- Avai scored in 10 of last 15 matches; Vila Nova scored in 11 of last 15.
- Avai conceded in 12 of last 15; Vila Nova conceded in 10 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring averages are low, especially for Avai, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Avai average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Vila Nova average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Combined first-half average: 1.2 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is slightly higher than first half, but still below the 1.5 line, making this a low-confidence over pick.
- Avai average 0.8 second-half goals scored; Vila Nova average 0.5 second-half goals scored.
- Avai average 0.7 second-half goals conceded; Vila Nova average 0.6 second-half goals conceded.
- Combined second-half average: 1.3 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages are modest, suggesting a total under 9.5 corners is slightly more likely.
- Avai average 3.9 corners per match; Vila Nova average 4.6 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 8.5.
- Recent matches show mixed corner counts, with several under 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is below the 8.5 line, making under 8.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Avai average 3.4 shots on target per match; Vila Nova average 4.5 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.9.
- Recent matches show both teams often below 5 shots on target individually.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is near the 3.5 line, making over 3.5 a coin-flip low-confidence pick.
- Avai average 1.7 yellow cards per match; Vila Nova average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.6.
- Both teams have had matches with 4+ cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Vila Nova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Vila Nova has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions, a strong 80% rate. The average estimated probability was 46.4%, yet they won 80% of those matches, exceeding the expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions. All four fulfilled predictions came at home, while the single away prediction was missed.

Recent evidence for Vila Nova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B