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Predictions graded

Vila Nova2Goias0

HT 0–0Thu 10 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–0100%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 21–12On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 2–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 04:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Vila Nova to win at 2.00 for a small edge (+5 points), as their strong home form and Goiás's poor away record make them likely winners.

Avoid the heavily priced unders and BTTS No markets, which offer no value despite the derby's low-scoring tendency.

Context

Vila Nova sits 4th in Serie B with 44 points and a home record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Goias is 12th with 36 points and an away record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses.
Vila Nova's home form is a clear advantage: they have scored 26 goals and conceded 11 at home. Goias has struggled on the road, scoring 13 and conceding 17. This contrast suggests Vila Nova can control the match, but Goias's draws show they can be stubborn.
- Vila Nova home record: 9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 12 matches.
- Goias away record: 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
Vila Nova centre-back Tiago Pagnussat is suspended for the home derby after being sent off against Athletic.
His absence removes a starting central defender and forces Vila Nova to reorganise the back line. The team must select a replacement without the continuity Pagnussat provided, and the new pairing will have limited preparation time for this derby.
- Pagnussat was sent off against Athletic and must serve a suspension against Goiás.
- Local reporting also identifies Pagnussat as a confirmed Vila Nova absence for the 27th-round match.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:38 · Europe/Bucharestge: Vila Nova have defensive doubts and returnsge.globo.com · 8 Sep 2026Mais Goiás: absences and possible returns for the derbywww.maisgoias.com.br · 8 Sep 2026
Goiás centre-back Luiz Felipe is suspended for the away derby after being sent off in the 1-0 defeat to Fortaleza.
Luiz Felipe had started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, so his absence removes a regular starter from Goiás's central defence. The team must adjust its defensive selection for a difficult away match, and the replacement will face a sold-out home crowd.
- Luiz Felipe was sent off in Goiás's 1-0 defeat to Fortaleza and cannot play against Vila Nova.
- Local reporting independently lists his suspension as Goiás's confirmed defensive absence.
- Luiz Felipe started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 373 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:38 · Europe/Bucharestge: Goiás have a defensive problem before the derbyge.globo.com · 8 Sep 2026Mais Goiás: absences and possible returns for the derbywww.maisgoias.com.br · 8 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times since March 2025, with Vila Nova winning three and two draws.
Vila Nova won the most recent Serie B meeting 1-0 at Goias on 2026-05-09. They also won 2-0 at home in August 2025. This pattern may give Vila Nova confidence, but past results do not guarantee future performance.
- 2026-05-09: Goias 0-1 Vila Nova (Serie B).
- 2025-08-16: Vila Nova 2-0 Goias (Serie B).
- 2026-02-01: Goias 0-1 Vila Nova (Goiano - 1).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vila Nova or Draw

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Vila Nova's 91.7% home unbeaten record and Goias's 61.5% away non-win rate make this a high-confidence safety play, though the odds offer no edge.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Derby matches often produce fewer goals, and both teams' recent scoring rates and H2H history point to a low-scoring game.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have struggled to score consistently in this fixture, and Goias's away scoring is low, making a clean sheet for one side likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Low first-half scoring averages for both teams and the derby context suggest a tight opening period.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.13fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and the derby context reduces early goals, making both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's strong home form and Goias's poor away record, combined with recent H2H home dominance, make Vila Nova the likely winner.
- Vila Nova home record: 9W 2D 1L, 26 goals scored, 11 conceded in 12 home matches
- Goias away record: 3W 5D 5L, 13 goals scored, 17 conceded in 13 away matches
- Vila Nova last 5 form: LWDWW (10 points from 15), Goias last 5 form: LWDLL (4 points from 15)
- H2H last 5: home team won 3, draws 2; Vila Nova won last home meeting 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVila NovaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's excellent home unbeaten record and Goias's struggles away, plus H2H pattern of no away wins, strongly support Vila Nova or Draw.
- Vila Nova home record: 9W 2D 1L (91.7% unbeaten at home)
- Goias away record: 3W 5D 5L (61.5% not winning away)
- H2H last 5: no away wins, 3 home wins and 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are evenly matched in first-half performance, and derby matches often start cautiously, making a draw at half time likely.
- Vila Nova leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing 33%
- Goias leading at half time in 53% of matches, trailing 33%
- H2H last 5: 3 matches level at half time
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova's home advantage and stronger second-half performance at home give them a slight edge to win the second half.
- Vila Nova home second half goal difference: +0.5 per game (1.25 scored - 0.75 conceded)
- Goias away second half goal difference: -0.2 per game (0.5 scored - 0.7 conceded)
- Vila Nova tends to push for wins at home in second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonVila NovaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Vila Nova win is a plausible scenario given their home strength and Goias's away fragility.
- Vila Nova home record: 9W 2D 1L, often winning after level first half
- Goias away record: 3W 5D 5L, often dropping points after level first half
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time, home team won both
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Vila NovaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is rare for both teams, especially in a derby, making 'No' highly likely.
- Vila Nova home matches: won both halves in only 2 of 12 (17%)
- Goias away matches: lost both halves in only 2 of 13 (15%)
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Goias has been competitive in first halves away, and the derby often starts evenly, making Draw or Goias a reasonable first-half double chance.
- Vila Nova first half home record: 5W 4D 3L (estimated from leading/trailing percentages)
- Goias first half away record: 4W 5D 4L (estimated)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time, 1 Goias lead, 1 Vila Nova lead
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or GoiasEstimated chance55%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often produce fewer goals, and both teams' recent scoring rates and H2H history point to a low-scoring game.
- Vila Nova home goals per game: 2.17, conceded 0.92; total average 3.09
- Goias away goals per game: 1.00, conceded 1.31; total average 2.31
- H2H last 5: 3 matches under 2.5 goals (0-0, 1-0, 1-0)
- Both teams average total goals in recent form: Vila Nova 2.6, Goias 2.1
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently in this fixture, and Goias's away scoring is low, making a clean sheet for one side likely.
- Vila Nova home clean sheets: 4 in 12 home matches (33%)
- Goias away failed to score: 5 in 13 away matches (38%)
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 match (2-2 draw)
- Goias average goals scored away: 1.00 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both teams and the derby context suggest a tight opening period.
- Vila Nova first half goals average: 0.9, conceded 0.7
- Goias first half goals average: 0.7, conceded 0.5
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 4 matches were 0 or 1
- Both teams tend to start cautiously in derbies
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score fewer goals in the second half, and the derby intensity may lead to fewer chances after the break.
- Vila Nova second half goals average: 0.4 (1.3 total - 0.9 first half)
- Goias second half goals average: 0.2 (0.9 total - 0.7 first half)
- H2H last 5: second half goals in 4 matches were 0 or 1
- Both teams' scoring drops in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and the derby context reduces early goals, making both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Vila Nova first half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.7 conceded
- Goias first half goals: 0.7 scored, 0.5 conceded
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in only 1 match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The first-half draw is priced at 1.95 (implied 51.3%), but our estimate is only 50%, leaving no value and high uncertainty in a derby.

Prediction history

Vila Nova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Vila Nova has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 46.4%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectations. All four fulfilled predictions came at home, while the only miss was away.

Recent evidence for Vila Nova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B