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Predictions graded

San Antonio FC0FC Tulsa0

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges8–189%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight playoff race matchup with no clear betting edge; the only positive value is Both Teams to Score at 1.91 (55% estimate vs 52.4% implied), but Tulsa's in-form keeper and San Antonio's cup rotation risk make it a cautious play.

Avoid heavy favorites and unders, as the market has already priced in the low-scoring, draw-heavy profile.

Context

San Antonio FC and FC Tulsa enter this match with only six points separating second through eighth in the Western Conference, and a top-four place is directly at stake with eight regular-season games remaining.
A win for either side would materially improve its chances of securing a home first-round playoff match, while a loss could drop it into a more crowded lower-seed race. The compressed standings mean this result carries immediate seeding consequences rather than just a routine three points. Both teams therefore have a clear competitive incentive to approach the match at full intensity.
- The San Antonio Express-News reported that a top-four Western Conference place is at stake with eight regular-season games remaining.
- FC Tulsa said only six points separated second through eighth in the Western Conference entering the match.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/BucharestSan Antonio Express-News playoff previewwww.expressnews.com · 4 Sep 2026FC Tulsa match previewwww.fctulsa.com · 4 Sep 2026
FC Tulsa sits 4th in the Western Conference with 35 points, while San Antonio is 5th with the same total.
FC Tulsa's away record includes wins over Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds, but they have also lost to New Mexico United and Charleston Battery. San Antonio's home form is inconsistent, with losses to Oakland Roots and El Paso Locomotive but wins over Indy Eleven and Sacramento Republic. This suggests neither side has a clear home advantage.
- FC Tulsa away record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 matches.
- San Antonio home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses in 11 matches.
- FC Tulsa won 5-1 at Orange County SC on 2026-08-23.
- San Antonio lost 0-3 at home to El Paso Locomotive on 2026-08-16.
San Antonio FC forward Christian Sorto has been reported fit to start after returning from a lower-body injury in the August 29 win at New Mexico.
Sorto's return to the starting side would restore a forward option that had been limited since July 31. D. Pacheco had started in the same position in three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups when Sorto did not start, so a confirmed start would likely reduce Pacheco's role. The report remains cautious, and no official lineup has been confirmed.
- San Antonio said Sorto made his first appearance after a lower-body injury since July 31 in the August 29 win at New Mexico.
- Jonathan Check reported on September 5 that Sorto was fit to start against FC Tulsa.
- C. Sorto started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- D. Pacheco started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when C. Sorto did not start.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/BucharestSan Antonio FC match reportwww.sanantoniofc.com · 30 Aug 2026
San Antonio and FC Tulsa have met five times since October 2025 across USL Championship, USL League One Cup, US Open Cup, and a friendly.
In the most recent USL Championship meeting on 2026-03-15, the teams drew 0-0. San Antonio won 2-1 in the League One Cup on 2026-06-07, while FC Tulsa won 1-0 in the US Open Cup on 2026-04-02. These results suggest a closely contested match with limited scoring opportunities.
- 2026-06-07: San Antonio won 2-1 at FC Tulsa (USL League One Cup).
- 2026-04-02: FC Tulsa won 1-0 at San Antonio (US Open Cup).
- 2026-03-15: 0-0 draw at FC Tulsa (USL Championship).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

3.03fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 33%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have similar home/away splits and recent H2H shows frequent draws, making a stalemate plausible.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Antonio FC or Draw

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

San Antonio's home form and Tulsa's inconsistent away results support a home-or-draw double chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.08fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high rates of leading at half time, but recent H2H first halves have often been level, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.

Win Both HalveswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.14fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Neither team has shown dominance to win both halves, and recent H2H has been tight, making 'No' highly likely.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Antonio FC or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

San Antonio's home first-half resilience and Tulsa's strong first-half away form make a home-or-draw first-half double chance likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent H2H first halves have been tight, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.14fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Low first-half scoring rates for both teams and historical H2H patterns suggest both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar home/away splits and recent H2H shows frequent draws, making a stalemate plausible.
- San Antonio home record: 5W-3D-3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- FC Tulsa away record: 4W-2D-3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win; last league meeting 0-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home form and Tulsa's inconsistent away results support a home-or-draw double chance.
- San Antonio home record: 5W-3D-3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- FC Tulsa away record: 4W-2D-3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 9 away matches
- San Antonio last 5 home matches: 2W-1D-2L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Antonio FC or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of leading at half time, but recent H2H first halves have often been level, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- San Antonio leading at half time: 47%, trailing: 27%
- FC Tulsa leading at half time: 53%, trailing: 7%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home advantage and recent home form give them a slight edge in the second half, but the margin is narrow.
- San Antonio home second half goal difference: +0.18 (14 for, 12 against in 11 home matches)
- FC Tulsa away second half goal difference: +0.22 (14 for, 12 against in 9 away matches)
- San Antonio has won 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSan Antonio FCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time and full time is a plausible outcome given the teams' balanced profiles and recent H2H draws.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, including 0-0 in last league meeting
- Both teams have similar home/away records
- First half draw probability: 45%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown dominance to win both halves, and recent H2H has been tight, making 'No' highly likely.
- San Antonio home: only 2 wins by 2+ goals in 11 home matches
- FC Tulsa away: only 2 wins by 2+ goals in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home first-half resilience and Tulsa's strong first-half away form make a home-or-draw first-half double chance likely.
- San Antonio first half home record: 47% leading, 27% trailing
- FC Tulsa first half away record: 53% leading, 7% trailing
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSan Antonio FC or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- San Antonio home average: 1.27 goals for, 1.09 against
- FC Tulsa away average: 1.56 goals for, 1.33 against
- H2H last 5: 3 matches under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar scoring and conceding rates on their respective home/away splits, making both teams scoring likely.
- San Antonio home: 14 goals for, 12 against in 11 matches
- FC Tulsa away: 14 goals for, 12 against in 9 matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent H2H first halves have been tight, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- San Antonio first half goals average: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.6
- FC Tulsa first half goals average: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.3
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be higher as teams push for results, but the combined average is below 1.5, making this a low-confidence lean.
- San Antonio second half goals average: 0.8 (1.5 total - 0.7 first half)
- FC Tulsa second half goals average: 0.4 (1.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.2 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams and historical H2H patterns suggest both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.
- San Antonio first half goals average: 0.7, conceded: 0.6
- FC Tulsa first half goals average: 0.7, conceded: 0.3
- H2H last 5: only 1 match had both teams score in first half
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%