Eintracht Frankfurt1FC Augsburg4

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 22–17On targetOn target 8–7CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 07:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Frankfurt's set-piece vulnerability and Augsburg's aggressive transitions make this an intriguing matchup, but the market has already priced in most scoring outcomes.

The best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10, with a 60% estimated probability versus 47.6% implied—a 12-point edge. Avoid the double chance and over 2.5 goals, as odds offer no value.

Context

Augsburg sit fourth after one match with three points and a plus-three goal difference.
In their only league game, Augsburg took 24 shots and put 13 on target while conceding none. That level of chance creation may not repeat away from home, but it shows they can threaten Frankfurt's defence.
- Augsburg beat FC Schalke 04 3-0 at home on 2026-08-30.
- They had 24 shots and 13 on target in that match.
Eintracht Frankfurt attacker A. Knauff started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed thigh injury removes a rotation option from Frankfurt's attacking selection against Augsburg. The club has given no return date, so the bench loses a player who could have offered fresh legs late in the match.
- Eintracht Frankfurt said Knauff sustained a thigh injury in team training.
- The club said he would be unavailable until further notice.
- A. Knauff started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 07:00 · Europe/BucharestEintracht Frankfurt: Adlerticker, 27 August 2026profis.eintracht.de · 27 Aug 2026
Frankfurt are eighth with one point after one match.
Frankfurt allowed 19 shots and 10 on target in that draw, which suggests their defence can be stretched. Augsburg's recent attacking numbers could test that weakness.
- Frankfurt drew 3-3 at Union Berlin on 2026-08-29.
- Union Berlin had 19 shots and 10 on target against Frankfurt.
Frankfurt drew 3-3 at Union Berlin on 29 August after leading 3-1.
Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu said all three Union goals came from set pieces, which points to a specific defensive issue for Frankfurt to address before Augsburg visit. Augsburg can test that weakness through dead-ball delivery and aerial contests, though the sample is only one match.
- Frankfurt drew 3-3 at Union Berlin on 29 August after leading 3-1.
- Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu said all three Union goals came from set pieces.
- Head coach Adi Hütter said Frankfurt could not break free late in the second half and failed to see the match through.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 07:00 · Europe/BucharestEintracht Frankfurt: “Didn’t see it through”en.eintracht.de · 29 Aug 2026Bundesliga: Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt reportwww.bundesliga.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring recent form, but the odds already price in a high probability, leaving no value on the over.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both sides consistently find the net, but the odds are too short to offer value given the moderate probability estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's home edge and H2H dominance are offset by Augsburg's strong opening win and Frankfurt's defensive issues, making a home win only slightly more likely than a draw.
- Frankfurt are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches against Augsburg (2W, 3D).
- Frankfurt's home form in the last 15 matches: 3W, 2D, 2L, with 2.3 goals scored per home game.
- Augsburg's away form in the last 15 matches: 3W, 1D, 3L, with 1.6 goals scored per away game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEintracht FrankfurtEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's strong home H2H record and Augsburg's inconsistent away form make the double chance a solid option.
- Frankfurt have not lost at home to Augsburg in the last 5 meetings (2W, 3D).
- Frankfurt's home record in the last 15 matches: 3W, 2D, 2L.
- Augsburg's away record in the last 15 matches: 3W, 1D, 3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEintracht Frankfurt or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Frankfurt breakthrough is plausible given their second-half scoring and Augsburg's tendency to concede late.
- Frankfurt led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches and won 47% overall.
- Augsburg trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches but won 40% overall.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 2 Frankfurt wins, with no Augsburg wins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Eintracht FrankfurtEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring recent form, but H2H history is low-scoring, so the over is supported by current attacking output and Frankfurt's set-piece vulnerability.
- Eintracht Frankfurt's last 15 matches average 3.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, totaling 5.0 goals per game.
- FC Augsburg's last 15 matches average 2.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, totaling 4.6 goals per game.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 1, 1, 0, 2, and 3 total goals, averaging 1.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net, and Frankfurt's set-piece weakness gives Augsburg a clear route to score.
- Frankfurt scored in 13 of their last 15 matches and conceded in 11.
- Augsburg scored in 12 of their last 15 matches and conceded in 10.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, but the low H2H scoring history tempers confidence in a high first-half total.
- Frankfurt average 1.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Augsburg average 1.3 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.35 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been higher scoring for both teams, and Frankfurt's set-piece issues often surface late under pressure.
- Frankfurt's last 15 matches average 1.6 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Augsburg's last 15 matches average 1.4 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Frankfurt conceded all three goals in the second half against Union Berlin, showing late defensive vulnerability.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a similar rate, pushing the total slightly above the line.
- Frankfurt average 5.0 corners for and 5.0 against in their last 15 matches.
- Augsburg average 5.2 corners for and 5.2 against in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners per match is 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are active in shooting, and the combined average comfortably exceeds the line.
- Frankfurt average 5.2 shots on target per match and concede 5.2.
- Augsburg average 6.4 shots on target per match and concede 5.0.
- Combined average shots on target is 10.9 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The physical nature of the matchup and Augsburg's aggressive transition style could push card totals slightly above the line.
- Frankfurt average 2.3 yellow cards per match and 10.8 fouls.
- Augsburg average 1.9 yellow cards per match and 8.9 fouls.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.2 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47.6% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate for Over 2.5; the 3.5 line is too aggressive given H2H low-scoring trend.

Prediction history

Eintracht Frankfurt has been highly reliable when projected to see Over 2.5 goals

In 6 recent matches with Over 2.5 goals projections, Eintracht Frankfurt fulfilled 5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 62.7%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. Home matches were perfect at 3/3, while away matches were 2/3.

Recent evidence for Eintracht Frankfurt6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga