Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig

🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished

Saturday, April 18, 2026 at 16:30

Finished Snapshot

FT1-3

FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-1

Predictions

6W · 4L · 0P

Edges

0W · 1L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

51%-49%

Shots

15-19

Shots on Target

5-8

Corners

4-6

Quick Take

Leipzig's stronger form (4-in-5 wins, clear UCL motivation) and superior shot volume offset Frankfurt's home edge and recent 4-0 H2H win; internal managerial friction under Riera and missing defensive personnel (Collins, Kristensen) favour the visitors.

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.50.6%+8.7pp

Context Signals

Leipzig WWWLW form with 4 wins in 5; Frankfurt WDLWD with inconsistent results...

MEDIUM

Leipzig's vastly superior goal difference, stronger recent form, and UCL-driven motivation combined with Frankfurt's fragile morale and defensive absentees make a Leipzig win or draw the most probable combined outcome.

Frankfurt average 2.0 yellows per game; Leipzig average 2.2 yellows (last 10) —...

MEDIUM

The combined yellow card average of 4.2 per game, driven by Leipzig's high foul count from their pressing approach, comfortably supports expecting over 3.5 total cards in this competitive fixture.

Betting Edges

Implied: 51% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +9pts

•Frankfurt 2.0 yellows/game; Leipzig 2.2 yellows/game (last 10)
•Leipzig average 11.1 fouls/game—high pressing-driven figure
•Schlager suspended for accumulated yellows; Frankfurt 1 red in last 10

Model probabilities

Double ChanceRB Leipzig or Draw62%Mediumwon

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.560%Mediumlost

The combined yellow card average of 4.2 per game, driven by Leipzig's high foul count from their pressing approach, comfortably supports expecting over 3.5 total cards in this competitive fixture.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.558%Mediumwon

The H2H history shows a 100% over 2.5 rate in the last 5 meetings, both teams have high season goal involvement rates, and defensive absences on both sides further support goals in this fixture.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.558%Mediumlost

While Leipzig have first-half potency, the combined first-half averages (~1.0-1.1 total goals) and Frankfurt's frequent goalless first halves suggest under 1.5 FH goals is the likelier outcome.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.557%Mediumwon

Both teams generate substantial shots on target with a combined average over 10 per game, and the competitive UCL-stakes context for Leipzig should maintain their attacking output.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Corners Over/UnderOver 9.555%Mediumwon

Both teams generate solid corner volumes with a combined average just over 10 per game, and Leipzig's high shot volume (14.3/game) frequently produces corners, supporting the over 9.5 line.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Away Goals TotalOver 1.555%Mediumwon

Leipzig's strong attacking output combined with Frankfurt's defensive absentees and mediocre home defensive record this season makes 2+ Leipzig goals a realistic probability.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Both Teams to ScoreNo52%Mediumlost

The H2H pattern shows dominant one-sided scorelines (3 of 5 clean sheets), and Leipzig's defensive solidity away from home slightly favors a one-sided outcome rather than mutual scoring.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Match WinnerRB Leipzig40%Mediumwon

Leipzig's superior motivation (UCL chase), higher shot volume/efficiency, and Frankfurt's internal instability under a new manager offset the H2H home advantage pattern, giving Leipzig a slight edge as the more cohesive and motivated unit.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

First Half WinnerRB Leipzig30%Lowlost

Leipzig's dominant first-half profile — nearly a goal scored and barely conceding before the break — combined with Frankfurt's sluggish first-half output gives Leipzig the best single-team probability of leading at halftime.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Draw No Bet Eintracht Frankfurt @ 2.50:Inflated vig on home team. Gap to Leipzig -0.5 (1.48) suggests casual overbacking of Frankfurt. Market structure is poor value.

Match Winner RB Leipzig @ 2.00:Predictor's 40% estimate trails implied 50% significantly. Recent 4-0 H2H home win by Frankfurt and managerial stability questions on Leipzig side (recent losses to Stuttgart, Bayern) offset form thesis. No edge detected.

Both Teams to Score No @ 3.00:Predictor's 52% estimate (No) clashes sharply with 1.38 odds on Yes (72.5% implied). Bookmakers price mutual scoring as highly likely; the 3 clean-sheet H2H results are historical outliers. Frankfurt's recent form and Leipzig's attacking potency make 'No' a weak thesis despite predictor lean.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Eintracht Frankfurt host RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga clash that pits two strikingly different narratives against each other. Leipzig arrive in considerably stronger form—sitting third with 56 points from 29 games and riding a 4-in-5 winning streak—while chasing a Champions League qualification spot under manager Ole Werner (appointed June 2025). Frankfurt, meanwhile, languish in 7th on 42 points with minimal European ambition, and are navigating internal turbulence following manager Albert Riera's appointment in February and his public row with World Cup winner Mario Götze in early April.

Recent Form

Eintracht Frankfurt

W2-1VfL WolfsburgApr 11BL

D2-21. FC KölnApr 5BL

L1-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 22BL

W1-01. FC HeidenheimMar 14BL

D0-0FC St. PauliMar 8BL

W2-0SC FreiburgMar 1BL

L2-3Bayern MünchenFeb 21BL

W3-0Borussia MönchengladbachFeb 14BL

D1-1Union BerlinFeb 6BL

L1-3Bayer LeverkusenJan 31BL

RB Leipzig

W1-0Borussia MönchengladbachApr 11BL

W2-1Werder BremenApr 4BL

W5-01899 HoffenheimMar 20BL

L0-1VfB StuttgartMar 15BL

W2-1FC AugsburgMar 7BL

W2-1Hamburger SVMar 1BL

D2-2Borussia DortmundFeb 21BL

D2-2VfL WolfsburgFeb 15BL

L0-2Bayern MünchenFeb 11DFB

W2-11. FC KölnFeb 8BL

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	29	11	9	9	54-54	42	WDLWD
4	RB Leipzig Champions League	29	17	5	7	56-36	56	WWWLW

14pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L6-0RB LeipzigvEintracht FrankfurtDec 6, 2025BL

W4-0Eintracht FrankfurtvRB LeipzigApr 26, 2025BL

L2-1RB LeipzigvEintracht FrankfurtDec 15, 2024BL

L3-0RB LeipzigvEintracht FrankfurtDec 4, 2024DFB

D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtvRB LeipzigMay 18, 2024BL

RB Leipzig: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Eintracht Frankfurt

8 out

Attackers7

Midfielders2/13

×#19

Defenders4/8

×#34

×#13

×#34

×#13

Goalkeeper2/3

×#40

#19 J. Bahoya — Thigh Injury

#34 N. Collins — Ankle Injury

#40 Kaua Santos — Knee Injury

#13 R. Kristensen — Ankle Injury

#19 J. Bahoya — Thigh Injury

#34 N. Collins — Ankle Injury

#40 Kaua Santos — Knee Injury

#13 R. Kristensen — Ankle Injury

RB Leipzig

14 out

Attackers9

Midfielders6/7

×#6

×#77

×#24

×#6

×#77

×#24

Defenders4/9

×#23

×#4

×#23

×#4

Goalkeeper2/3

×#25

#6 E. Banzuzi — Knee Injury

V. Gebel — Knee Injury

#77 S. Sani — Hip Injury

#24 X. Schlager — Yellow Cards

#25 L. Zingerle — Wrist Injury

#23 C. Lukeba — Muscle Injury

#4 W. Orban — Thigh Injury

#6 E. Banzuzi — Knee Injury

V. Gebel — Knee Injury

#77 S. Sani — Hip Injury

#24 X. Schlager — Yellow Cards

#25 L. Zingerle — Wrist Injury

#23 C. Lukeba — Muscle Injury

#4 W. Orban — Thigh Injury

Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig

Quick Take

Context Signals

Leipzig WWWLW form with 4 wins in 5; Frankfurt WDLWD with inconsistent results...

Leipzig WWWLW form with 4 wins in 5; Frankfurt WDLWD with inconsistent results...

Frankfurt average 2.0 yellows per game; Leipzig average 2.2 yellows (last 10) —...

Frankfurt average 2.0 yellows per game; Leipzig average 2.2 yellows (last 10) —...

Betting Edges

Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Recent Form

Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig

League Table

Head-to-Head

Squad & Injuries

Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig