Brommapojkarna2Elfsborg1

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–9On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Elfsborg are the likelier winners based on away form and H2H dominance, but the odds offer no value (45% model vs 50% implied).

The only near-fair market is Both Teams to Score at 1.67, though the edge is minimal and carries risk from Brommapojkarna's injury doubt. Avoid over 2.5 goals and first-half over 0.5 goals, as both are priced well above model estimates.

Context

Elfsborg are fourth in Allsvenskan with 31 points from 19 matches, only 11 points behind leaders Sirius.
Their recent form is strong: wins over Degerfors IF (2-0 on 29 August), Vasteras SK FK (3-0 on 14 August), Mjallby AIF (1-0 on 8 August), and Malmo FF (2-1 on 26 July). This run shows they can control matches and defend well, which could make them difficult for Brommapojkarna to break down. However, three of those wins came at home, and their away record is more mixed with three wins, four draws, and two losses.
- Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 2-0 on 2026-08-29.
- Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 3-0 on 2026-08-14.
- Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 on 2026-08-08.
- Elfsborg beat Malmo FF 2-1 on 2026-07-26.
Brommapojkarna are 10th in Allsvenskan with 24 points, eight points above the relegation playoff spot.
The 4-0 defeat at Gais on 31 August exposed defensive problems: they allowed 18 shots and nine on target while creating little themselves. That result ended a brief two-match winning run and may affect their approach against a strong Elfsborg side. However, they had won their previous two home games, so their home form is not consistently poor.
- Brommapojkarna lost 0-4 to Gais on 2026-08-31.
- Brommapojkarna had only one shot on target in that match.
- Gais had nine shots on target against Brommapojkarna.
Brommapojkarna midfielder O. Berg was forced off in the 25th minute of the 2-0 home win over Degerfors on 23 August.
His availability for the visit of Elfsborg is unconfirmed. If Berg remains out, Brommapojkarna would need to adjust their attacking-midfield selection, though no specific replacement or tactical change has been identified.
- A 26 August report states that Berg was forced off through injury in the 25th minute of Brommapojkarna's 2-0 home win over Degerfors on 23 August.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/BucharestBrommapojkarna News: BP beat Degerforsbrommapojkarnanews.info · 26 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times since March 2025, with Elfsborg winning three and drawing two.
Elfsborg's 2-0 win on 8 May 2026 came in the reverse fixture this season, where they limited Brommapojkarna to four shots on target. The previous meeting in May 2025 was a high-scoring 4-3 Elfsborg win. This head-to-head record suggests Elfsborg have had the upper hand recently, though the matches have been close at times.
- Elfsborg beat Brommapojkarna 2-0 on 2026-05-08.
- Elfsborg beat Brommapojkarna 4-3 on 2025-05-15.
- The last five meetings: Elfsborg 3 wins, 2 draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Elfsborg

2.00fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's superior away record and strong recent form give them a slight edge, but the odds are close to fair value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Elfsborg

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's away form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, but the odds are slightly below fair value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's superior away form and strong recent results, combined with a positive H2H record, give them the edge despite Brommapojkarna's home advantage.
- Elfsborg away record: 3W 4D 2L in 9 away matches, 11 goals scored, 10 conceded
- Elfsborg last 5 form: WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw)
- Brommapojkarna home record: 3W 3D 3L in 9 home matches, 13 goals scored, 11 conceded
- H2H last 5: Elfsborg won 3, Brommapojkarna won 1, draw 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElfsborgEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's away form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, while Brommapojkarna's home resilience suggests a draw is possible.
- Elfsborg away record: 3W 4D 2L in 9 away matches
- Brommapojkarna home record: 3W 3D 3L in 9 home matches
- H2H last 5: Elfsborg won 3, draw 1
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or ElfsborgEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's superior first-half performance and Brommapojkarna's slow starts give Elfsborg a slight edge at the break.
- Elfsborg led at halftime in 47% of matches
- Brommapojkarna led at halftime in only 20% of matches
- Elfsborg first half goals average: 0.7 for, 0.2 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostElfsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Elfsborg win is a plausible scenario given Elfsborg's second-half strength and Brommapojkarna's tendency to fade.
- Elfsborg drew at halftime in 40% of matches
- Elfsborg won 42% of matches overall
- Brommapojkarna drew at halftime in 60% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/ElfsborgEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages, along with recent H2H goal totals, support a moderately high-scoring match.
- Brommapojkarna average goals per match: 1.2 for, 1.6 against (total 2.8)
- Elfsborg average goals per match: 1.5 for, 0.9 against (total 2.4)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Brommapojkarna's defensive vulnerabilities make it likely both will find the net.
- Brommapojkarna scored in 12 of 15 recent matches
- Elfsborg scored in 13 of 15 recent matches
- Brommapojkarna conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches
- Elfsborg conceded in 8 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's strong first-half scoring and Brommapojkarna's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.
- Brommapojkarna first half goals average: 0.5 for, 0.7 against
- Elfsborg first half goals average: 0.7 for, 0.2 against
- Elfsborg led at halftime in 47% of matches, Brommapojkarna in 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring averages for both teams hover around the 1.5 line, making this a borderline call.
- Brommapojkarna average second half goals: 0.7 for, 0.9 against
- Elfsborg average second half goals: 0.8 for, 0.7 against
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Brommapojkarna average corners per match: 5.0 for, 6.3 against (total 11.3)
- Elfsborg average corners per match: 4.6 for, 5.1 against (total 9.7)
- Combined average corners: 10.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the 8.5 line, making this a marginal call.
- Brommapojkarna average shots on target: 3.4 for, 5.3 against (total 8.7)
- Elfsborg average shots on target: 4.7 for, 3.1 against (total 7.8)
- Combined average shots on target: 8.25
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card averages are below the 3.5 line, but variance in disciplinary outcomes makes this a speculative pick.
- Brommapojkarna average yellow cards: 1.4 for, 1.5 against (total 2.9)
- Elfsborg average yellow cards: 1.2 for, 1.5 against (total 2.7)
- Combined average cards: 2.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%