Svenska CupenFull time

Predictions graded

Vastra Frolunda IF0Elfsborg4

HT 0–3Tue 18 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Elfsborg should win this cup tie, but at 1.06 there is no value on the outright.

The best edge is both teams to score at 3.30 (our model: 58% vs implied 30%), with a smaller edge on second-half over 1.5 goals at 1.85. Avoid the short-priced favourites and focus on the goals markets.

Context

Elfsborg are an Allsvenskan club; Vastra Frolunda play in Division 2 (fourth tier).
- Elfsborg's recent Allsvenskan form: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 7.
- Vastra Frolunda's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, but against much weaker opposition.
Vastra Frolunda average 2.3 goals per game in their league.
- Their recent opponents include Kongahälla, Hestrafor, and Böljan, all lower-tier sides.
- Elfsborg concede only 1.1 goals per game on average in Allsvenskan.
Elfsborg's last 5 away matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- They lost 1-0 to Gais and drew 1-1 with Halmstad in recent away games.
- Elfsborg have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches overall.
The most recent H2H match was in 2000, a 3-1 Elfsborg win.
- All four documented meetings occurred between 1987 and 2000.
- Current squads and playing styles are completely different.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elfsborg

1.06fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 94.3%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's top-flight quality and superior squad depth make them clear favourites, but the market has priced them at 94% implied probability, far above our 78% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Elfsborg

1.01fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's superior quality makes a Vastra Frolunda win highly unlikely, but the double chance odds of 1.01 imply a 99% probability, exceeding our 92% estimate.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Elfsborg

1.30fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's quality should show early, but the market's 77% implied probability for a first-half lead is far above our 55% estimate, offering no value.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Elfsborg at half-time / Elfsborg at full-time

1.33fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg are likely to control the match, but the market's 75% implied probability for Elfsborg/Elfsborg is significantly higher than our 50% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.35fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Vastra Frolunda's high-scoring games and Elfsborg's attacking quality point to goals, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The massive gulf in league quality is the dominant factor, with Elfsborg's top-flight experience and superior squad depth making them clear favourites.
- Elfsborg are an Allsvenskan side, while Vastra Frolunda play in Division 2 (fourth tier).
- Elfsborg's recent form: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 7 Allsvenskan matches.
- Vastra Frolunda's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, but against much weaker opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's superior quality makes a Vastra Frolunda win highly unlikely, so the double chance covers the most probable outcomes.
- Elfsborg have not lost to a lower-division side in recent cup matches.
- Vastra Frolunda's only wins have come against Division 2 or lower opposition.
- Elfsborg's away form: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or ElfsborgEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's quality should show early, but Vastra Frolunda's decent first-half record at their level adds some uncertainty.
- Elfsborg lead at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Vastra Frolunda lead at half-time in 40% of matches, but against weaker opposition.
- Elfsborg's first-half goal difference is +0.2, while Vastra Frolunda's is 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg are likely to control the match from start to finish, but the probability is tempered by the possibility of a resilient first half from the hosts.
- Elfsborg have won both halves in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda have lost both halves in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Elfsborg's superior fitness and depth should tell in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonElfsborg/ElfsborgEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Elfsborg are strong favourites, winning both halves is a more demanding outcome, hence the lower probability.
- Elfsborg have won both halves in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda have lost both halves in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Elfsborg's second-half goal difference is +0.5.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonElfsborgEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vastra Frolunda's high-scoring games and the likelihood of Elfsborg creating many chances against a lower-tier defence point to a goal-heavy match.
- Vastra Frolunda's matches average 4.0 total goals (2.3 for, 1.7 against).
- Elfsborg's matches average 2.4 total goals (1.3 for, 1.1 against).
- Vastra Frolunda have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vastra Frolunda's consistent scoring record and Elfsborg's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Vastra Frolunda have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Elfsborg have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda's home matches average 2.3 goals scored.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages are close to the 1.5 line, but the attacking intent of both sides could push it over.
- Vastra Frolunda average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Elfsborg average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to be more open as the lower-tier side tires, leading to more goals.
- Vastra Frolunda's matches average 2.2 second-half goals.
- Elfsborg's matches average 1.3 second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to score more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's defensive record suggests they may concede, especially against a team that consistently finds the net.
- Elfsborg have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda average 2.3 goals per game at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostVastra Frolunda IF to scoreEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's attacking style should generate corners, but the lack of data for Vastra Frolunda makes this a speculative call.
- Elfsborg average 4.0 corners per match.
- Vastra Frolunda's corner data is unavailable.
- Elfsborg's matches average 8.0 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of cup football and Elfsborg's disciplinary record suggest a moderate card count, but uncertainty remains.
- Elfsborg average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Vastra Frolunda's card data is unavailable.
- Cup matches often see more cards due to competitive intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 94% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

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