Sollentuna FK1Gefle IF0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Gefle IF's head-to-head dominance and Sollentuna's weak home form make 'Draw or Gefle IF' the best value at around 1.53 (edge +3pts).

Expect goals, but the market has already priced in Over 2.5 and BTTS, so avoid those lines. Steer clear of Sollentuna outright, as their poor home record offers no value.

Context

Gefle sit 10th with 24 points, but their away form has been a weakness.
Gefle have won only three of ten away games and conceded 22 goals on the road. Sollentuna's home record is also modest with two wins in nine, so this may not be a decisive factor, but Gefle's defensive struggles away from home are clear.
- Gefle's away record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 10 matches.
- Gefle have conceded 22 goals in those away matches.
Pelle Olsson has been Gefle IF men’s manager since 25 May 2026, with a contract through 2028, and he was still leading autumn squad work on 1 August.
His appointment replaced the previous coaching setup during the season, so his selection and match-management decisions are the relevant frame for this game. The claim does not specify tactical changes, so the concrete effect on Gefle’s approach remains uncertain.
- Gefle IF appointed Pelle Olsson as manager of its men’s operation on 25 May 2026.
- The club said his contract runs through the 2028 season.
- On 1 August, Gefle published Olsson’s comments on an addition to the autumn squad.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/BucharestPelle Olsson returns to Gefle IFgefleiffotboll.se · 25 May 2026Semin Zulum joins Gefle IFgefleiffotboll.se · 1 Aug 2026
Sollentuna are 13th with 20 points and have been inconsistent at home.
Sollentuna's home record shows two wins, three draws, and four losses, with only eight goals scored. This suggests they may not be able to exploit Gefle's away weakness effectively.
- Sollentuna's home record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 9 matches.
- Sollentuna have scored 8 goals and conceded 14 at home.
The teams have met regularly in Ettan Norra and Svenska Cupen.
In the last four encounters, Gefle won three times, including a 2-1 away victory on 18 April 2026. Sollentuna's only win in that span was a 5-1 home victory in August 2025, showing Gefle have generally had the upper hand recently.
- 18 Apr 2026: Gefle IF 1-2 Sollentuna (away win for Sollentuna)
- 30 Aug 2025: Gefle IF 5-1 Sollentuna (home win for Gefle)
- 26 Apr 2025: Sollentuna 0-1 Gefle IF (away win for Gefle)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Gefle's away matches average 3.4 total goals and Sollentuna concede 1.8 per home game, supporting a higher-scoring contest.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in the majority of their respective home/away matches, making BTTS a plausible outcome.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gefle IF to score

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Sollentuna's poor home defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gefle's superior away form and strong H2H record give them the edge despite Sollentuna's home advantage.
- Gefle IF away record: 3W-1D-6L, 12 goals for, 22 against in 10 away matches
- Sollentuna home record: 2W-3D-4L, 8 goals for, 14 against in 9 home matches
- H2H last 5: Gefle won 3, Sollentuna won 1, 1 draw; Gefle won the most recent meeting 2-1 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGefle IFEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's poor home form and Gefle's H2H dominance make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- Sollentuna home win rate: 22% (2/9)
- Gefle away loss rate: 60% (6/10)
- H2H: Gefle unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Gefle IFEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor first half records, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Sollentuna led at half time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 47%
- Gefle led at half time in 27% of matches, trailed in 60%
- Both teams often start slowly
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Gefle's superior quality could produce this HT/FT outcome.
- Gefle won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Sollentuna home matches often see them trailing at half time
- Gefle have shown ability to win after a level first half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Gefle IFEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, especially Gefle's away, point to a higher-scoring contest.
- Sollentuna home matches average 2.44 total goals (8 for, 14 against in 9 games)
- Gefle away matches average 3.4 total goals (12 for, 22 against in 10 games)
- Both teams have negative goal differences and concede frequently
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS likely.
- Sollentuna scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- Gefle conceded in 9 of 10 away matches
- Gefle scored in 7 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, with Sollentuna's first half defensive record particularly poor.
- Sollentuna first half goals for average 0.7, against 1.1
- Gefle first half goals for average 0.3, against 0.7
- Combined first half goal average: 1.4 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to push for a result, the second half could see multiple goals.
- Sollentuna average 1.4 goals for and 1.8 against overall
- Gefle average 1.1 goals for and 1.8 against overall
- Second half goals often increase as teams chase results
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's home defensive record is poor, making a clean sheet unlikely.
- Sollentuna kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 9 home matches
- Gefle scored in 7 of 10 away matches
- Sollentuna concede an average of 1.56 goals per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGefle IF to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle's away defensive struggles suggest they will concede at least once.
- Gefle kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 10 away matches
- Sollentuna scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- Gefle concede an average of 2.2 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSollentuna FK to scoreEstimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% vs our estimate 33% leaves no value; the home side's poor form and H2H record make the price unattractive.

Prediction history

Sollentuna FK has matched Over 2.5 in 3 of 5 recent projections

Sollentuna FK has fulfilled 3 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 65%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is slightly below expectation. At home, only 1 of 3 such projections matched, while away 2 of 2 matched.

Recent evidence for Sollentuna FK5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jun·Ettan - Norra