RB Bragantino SP2Bahia3

HT 2–2Sat 5 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 24–11On targetOn target 10–5CornersCorners 10–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 14:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Bahia or Draw at 1.75 (edge +5pts) and Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 (edge +6.7pts).

Avoid the draw, BTTS Yes, and clean sheet No markets as they are overpriced. Bragantino’s deeper Rodriguinho and Bahia’s injury doubts point to a tight, low-scoring affair.

Context

Bahia sits 5th in Serie A with 40 points from 25 matches, while RB Bragantino is 8th with 35 points from 24 matches.
Bahia's recent results include a 3-2 home win over Internacional on 30 August and a 2-0 away win at Vitoria on 23 August. This run suggests they are in good shape, but their away record is mixed with 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses. RB Bragantino has only one win in their last five league games, so Bahia may have an edge in confidence and consistency.
- Bahia's last five Serie A matches: W, W, D, D, D.
- On 30 August 2026, Bahia beat Internacional 3-2 at home.
- On 23 August 2026, Bahia won 2-0 away at Vitoria.
RB Bragantino midfielder Rodriguinho has started four of the last five available lineups and now describes himself as playing more as a second holding midfielder.
That deeper role changes Bragantino's central build-up and the midfield cover available against Bahia's attacking midfielders. The shift is a current structural choice rather than a one-off absence, so it should shape how Bragantino protects central areas in this match.
- Rodriguinho said he has been playing more as a second holding midfielder for RB Bragantino.
- He made the comments before Bragantino’s 29 August Série A match against São Paulo.
- Rodriguinho started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 14:17 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 29 Aug 2026
RB Bragantino's home record this season is 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in 12 matches.
In their most recent home league game on 9 August, they lost 2-0 to Corinthians. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Coritiba on 26 July. This inconsistency at home could give Bahia, who have a decent away record, a chance to take points.
- RB Bragantino lost 2-0 at home to Corinthians on 9 August 2026.
- They drew 0-0 at home with Coritiba on 26 July 2026.
- Their home record is 6W-2D-4L.
Bahia midfielder Éverton Ribeiro trained only partially before the Internacional match and was not in the squad on 30 August.
His availability for this trip remains unresolved, which adds uncertainty to Bahia's creative midfield selection. Without a confirmed update, his potential absence would leave Bahia without a regular starter in that area.
- Bahia stated on 29 August that Éverton Ribeiro again trained only partially with the group.
- Bahia’s 30 August selection for Internacional listed Éverton Ribeiro among the absences.
- Éverton Ribeiro started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 14:17 · Europe/BucharestEsporte Clube Bahiawww.esporteclubebahia.com.br · 29 Aug 2026gege.globo.com · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score fewer goals in the first half, with a combined average below 1.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid but not dominant home/away splits, and Bahia's strong away form (5W 4D) suggests they can avoid defeat, while Bragantino's home record is decent but not overwhelming, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Bahia away record: 5W 4D 3L in 12 away matches
- RB Bragantino home record: 6W 2D 4L in 12 home matches
- H2H last 5: 3 home wins, 1 away win, 1 draw (no draws in last 5)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong away form and recent unbeaten run make them unlikely to lose, while Bragantino's home advantage is not overwhelming, supporting a double chance for the away side.
- Bahia away record: 5W 4D 3L (75% unbeaten away)
- RB Bragantino home record: 6W 2D 4L (67% win rate at home)
- Bahia overall form: WWDDD (unbeaten in last 5)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BahiaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low rates of leading at half time, and the match is expected to be tight, making a first half draw likely.
- RB Bragantino leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Bahia leading at half time: 27% of matches
- Combined probability of either leading at half time: 60%, leaving 40% for draw
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is a plausible but low probability outcome given the teams' tendencies.
- RB Bragantino home draw rate: 2/12 = 17%
- Bahia away draw rate: 4/12 = 33%
- Combined draw probability: around 25%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates in their respective home/away contexts, and the match is likely to be tight given the stakes, favoring under 2.5 goals.
- RB Bragantino home goals per match: 17/12 = 1.42
- Bahia away goals per match: 17/12 = 1.42
- Both teams average under 1.5 goals in respective home/away splits
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and Bahia's recent matches often feature both teams scoring, making BTTS likely.
- RB Bragantino home goals scored: 17 in 12 (1.42 per game)
- Bahia away goals scored: 17 in 12 (1.42 per game)
- Both teams have scored in 5 of Bahia's last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score fewer goals in the first half, with a combined average below 1.5, supporting under 1.5 first half goals.
- RB Bragantino first half goals average: 0.5 per match
- Bahia first half goals average: 0.8 per match
- Combined first half goals average: 1.3 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second half tends to see more goals as teams push for results, and the combined average is close to 1.5, making over 1.5 a marginal call.
- RB Bragantino second half goals average: 0.7 per match (1.2 total - 0.5 first half)
- Bahia second half goals average: 0.7 per match (1.5 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second half goals average: 1.4 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's away scoring record is strong, making it unlikely that Bragantino will keep a clean sheet.
- RB Bragantino home goals conceded: 11 in 12 (0.92 per game)
- Bahia away goals scored: 17 in 12 (1.42 per game)
- Bahia has scored in 10 of 12 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBahia to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino's home scoring record is solid, making it unlikely that Bahia will keep a clean sheet.
- Bahia away goals conceded: 17 in 12 (1.42 per game)
- RB Bragantino home goals scored: 17 in 12 (1.42 per game)
- Bragantino has scored in 10 of 12 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRB Bragantino SP to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, with a combined average near 12, suggesting over 9.5 corners is likely.
- RB Bragantino average corners per match: 6.1
- Bahia average corners per match: 5.8
- Combined average corners: 11.9 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.5-4.9 shots on target, leading to a combined average above 8.5, supporting over 8.5 shots on target.
- RB Bragantino average shots on target: 4.9 per match
- Bahia average shots on target: 4.5 per match
- Combined average shots on target: 9.4 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average 2.5 yellow cards each, resulting in a combined average of 5.0, making over 4.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- RB Bragantino average yellow cards: 2.5 per match
- Bahia average yellow cards: 2.5 per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L2-0BahiavRB BragantinoMar 18, 2026SA

L2-1BahiavRB BragantinoNov 2, 2025SA

W0-3RB BragantinovBahiaJun 12, 2025SA

L2-1RB BragantinovBahiaSep 1, 2024SA

L1-0BahiavRB BragantinoMay 12, 2024SA

Bahia: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	RB Bragantino SP Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	24	10	5	9	29-25	35	LWDLD
5	Bahia Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	25	10	10	5	37-30	40	WWDDD