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Predictions graded

Osasuna1Getafe0

HT 1–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 10–11On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 08:44 · Europe/Bucharest

The model sees a slight value edge on the draw at 3.10 (34% vs 32% implied), but confidence is medium.

Most other markets are overpriced, especially Osasuna or Draw (1.25) and Under 2.5 goals (1.45), which should be avoided.

Context

Getafe and Osasuna have met five times in La Liga since January 2024.
Getafe won the most recent meeting 1-0 at home on 23 May 2026, and they also won 2-1 at Osasuna in October 2025. Osasuna's only win in that span came at home in March 2025. This recent head-to-head record suggests Getafe have had the edge, but the sample is small and the teams have changed since last season.
- Getafe 1-0 Osasuna on 23 May 2026.
- Osasuna 2-1 Getafe on 3 October 2025.
- Osasuna 1-2 Getafe on 16 March 2025.
Osasuna defender Valentin Rosier has not started any of the last five available lineups, with Catena starting in his position in all five.
Rosier continued his recovery from a right-hamstring injury in the club's latest training update, so his readiness remains uncertain for Getafe. Catena has been the consistent starter in that role, and the unresolved injury limits certainty around Osasuna's defensive options.
- Osasuna reported on 28 August that Valentin Rosier continued his recovery from a right-hamstring injury.
- The update came as Osasuna began preparations for the Getafe match.
- V. Rosier started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Catena started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when V. Rosier did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 02:47 · Europe/BucharestOsasuna training updatewww.osasuna.es · 28 Aug 2026
Osasuna are 11th in La Liga with one point from one match.
Osasuna's only league match this season was a 0-0 home draw against Levante on 24 August 2026. They had 12 shots and 7 on target but could not score. This suggests they are solid defensively but lack a cutting edge in attack, which could matter against a Getafe side that has also struggled for goals.
- Osasuna 0-0 Levante on 24 August 2026.
- Osasuna had 12 shots and 7 on target in that match.
Getafe progressed in the Conference League despite a 2-1 defeat to Partizan on 27 August, returning to La Liga four days later.
The Thursday European decider and return travel create a compressed recovery window before Monday, making freshness and rotation relevant to Getafe's away selection. The Partizan match report lists their starting side and substitutions from the Belgrade second leg, but no concrete rotation plan is established.
- UEFA recorded Partizan 2-1 Getafe on 27 August, with Getafe progressing 4-3 on aggregate.
- The Partizan match report lists Getafe's starting side and substitutions from the Belgrade second leg.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 02:47 · Europe/BucharestUEFA Conference League qualifying resultswww.uefa.com · 28 Aug 2026FK Partizan match reportwww.partizan.rs · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Osasuna or Draw

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Osasuna's home advantage and Getafe's poor away form support Osasuna avoiding defeat.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring outputs and solid defensive records in recent league play, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have struggled to score early in the season, and H2H history shows a tendency for at least one team to be shut out.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight opening halves.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown inconsistent early-season form, and the H2H is evenly split, making a draw a strong possibility.
- Osasuna drew 0-0 at home vs Levante in their only league match this season.
- Getafe lost 0-3 away at Alaves in their only away league match.
- H2H last 5: 2 Osasuna wins, 2 Getafe wins, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home advantage and Getafe's poor away form support Osasuna avoiding defeat.
- Osasuna are unbeaten at home this season (1 draw).
- Getafe have lost their only away league match 0-3.
- Osasuna won the last home H2H 2-1 in October 2025.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at halftime, and their H2H encounters often start evenly.
- Osasuna led at halftime in only 7% of recent matches.
- Getafe led at halftime in only 7% of recent matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 first halves ended level.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A stalemate at both intervals is possible given both teams' defensive tendencies, but historical H2H data does not support this outcome strongly.
- Osasuna's last league match was 0-0 at halftime and fulltime.
- Getafe's last away league match was 0-0 at halftime but lost 0-3.
- H2H last 5: no match ended as Draw/Draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring outputs and solid defensive records in recent league play, suggesting a low-scoring affair.
- Osasuna's last 5 league matches averaged 2.2 total goals.
- Getafe's last 5 league matches averaged 2.0 total goals.
- Both teams have scored only 1 goal combined in their first league matches this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score early in the season, and H2H history shows a tendency for at least one team to be shut out.
- Osasuna failed to score in their only league match this season.
- Getafe failed to score in their only away league match this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in only 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight opening halves.
- Osasuna's first-half goals per game average is 0.3.
- Getafe's first-half goals per game average is 0.3.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 2 first halves had more than 1 goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and H2H history shows goals after the break are common.
- Osasuna's second-half goals per game average is 0.8.
- Getafe's second-half goals per game average is 0.6.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and their combined average is below the 9.5 line.
- Osasuna average 4.9 corners per match.
- Getafe average 4.0 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in their matches: 8.9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, and their combined average suggests a moderately high card count.
- Osasuna average 2.5 yellow cards per match.
- Getafe average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- In the last H2H meeting, there were 3 yellow cards total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Osasuna has struggled to fulfil Under 2.5 goals projections

Osasuna has fulfilled 3 of 7 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 65%, but only 43% of predictions matched. Matched predictions had a lower average probability (61.7%) than missed ones (67.5%), suggesting higher-confidence projections were less reliable.

Recent evidence for Osasuna7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga