Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

St Louis City3FC Dallas3

HT 2–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 3–1On targetOn target 1–1CornersCorners 2–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

St.

Louis City's attack is weakened by Hartel's departure and Löwen's uncertain status, making the home win (1.88) and Over 2.5 goals (1.50) poor value. The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, but confirm Löwen's availability before backing any St. Louis attacking markets.

Context

St Louis City sit sixth in the Western Conference with 33 points from 21 matches, level with FC Dallas.
Their last five MLS results are W-D-W-D-W, with the most recent a 2-1 home win over Houston Dynamo on August 23. That run includes a 3-1 away win at San Jose Earthquakes and a 1-0 home win over Colorado Rapids. This consistent form suggests they are comfortable at home, where they have won six of ten matches this season.
- St Louis City beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 at home on 2026-08-23.
- They drew 1-1 away at Sporting Kansas City on 2026-08-20.
- They won 3-1 away at San Jose Earthquakes on 2026-08-16.
St. Louis midfielder E. Löwen, listed as an attacker, has been traded to San Jose and is no longer available for this home match.
The confirmed trade removes Löwen from St. Louis' selection, reducing their immediate midfield options. The club has not named a direct replacement in the available evidence, so the exact adjustment to the lineup remains uncertain.
- St. Louis CITY SC announced that it traded Eduard Löwen to the San Jose Earthquakes.
- The club stated the deal includes $425,000 in 2026 General Allocation Money and possible conditional consideration.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest
FC Dallas are fifth in the Western Conference with 33 points, but their away record is mixed with six wins and four losses in 12 matches.
On August 23, they lost 5-0 at Vancouver Whitecaps, conceding four goals in the first half. That result ended a three-match winning streak in all competitions. While they had won their previous two away MLS games, the scale of this defeat shows they can be vulnerable against strong attacking sides.
- FC Dallas lost 5-0 away at Vancouver Whitecaps on 2026-08-23.
- They conceded four first-half goals in that match.
- Before that, they won 4-3 away at Real Salt Lake on 2026-08-20.
St. Louis and Dallas enter level on 33 points with identical 9-6-6 records, tied for fourth in the Western Conference.
The result carries immediate seeding consequences for both teams. Dallas is also completing a ninth consecutive road match, having taken 14 points from the first eight, which adds a travel workload factor to this direct contest.
- St. Louis CITY SC's preview lists both teams level on 33 points with identical 9-6-6 records, tied for fourth in the Western Conference.
- The same preview identifies this as FC Dallas' ninth consecutive road game and says Dallas took 14 points from the first eight.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:24 · Europe/BucharestSt. Louis CITY SC match previewwww.stlcitysc.com · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

St Louis City or Draw

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

St Louis City are unbeaten in 80% of home matches and the H2H is draw-heavy, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits, but the odds heavily favor Over 2.5, leaving no value for our 55% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

BTTS is likely given both teams' scoring and conceding records, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

First-half goals are likely, but the odds are extremely short, offering no value for our 65% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and recent consistency give them a slight edge, though Dallas's decent away record keeps confidence medium.
- St Louis City home record: 6W-2D-2L, 18 goals for, 11 against in 10 matches
- FC Dallas away record: 6W-2D-4L, 20 goals for, 18 against in 12 matches
- St Louis City last 5 form: W-D-W-D-W (11 points from 15)
- FC Dallas last 5 form: L-W-W-L-W (9 points from 15)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home unbeaten rate and the draw-heavy H2H support a high probability for the double chance.
- St Louis City home record: 6W-2D-2L (80% unbeaten at home)
- FC Dallas away record: 6W-2D-4L (67% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 home wins, 1 away win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at halftime, with Dallas especially prone to draws away from home.
- St Louis City first half home record: 53% leading, 13% trailing, 34% drawing
- FC Dallas first half away record: 33% leading, 27% trailing, 40% drawing
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a St Louis City win is plausible given their second-half strength at home, though low probability.
- St Louis City home: 53% leading at halftime, but often extend lead in second half
- FC Dallas away: 40% drawing at halftime, but only 33% leading
- St Louis City has won 60% of home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/St Louis CityEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits, and the H2H has seen goals in recent meetings, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- St Louis City home matches average 2.9 total goals (18 for, 11 against in 10)
- FC Dallas away matches average 3.2 total goals (20 for, 18 against in 12)
- Both teams score in 60% of St Louis City home matches and 67% of Dallas away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- St Louis City home: 60% BTTS (6 of 10 matches)
- FC Dallas away: 67% BTTS (8 of 12 matches)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had both teams score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Dallas especially involved in early goals away from home.
- St Louis City first half goals at home: 0.7 per match, conceded 0.3
- FC Dallas first half goals away: 0.9 per match, conceded 0.9
- Combined first half average: 1.4 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to produce more goals for both teams, especially with St Louis City's home scoring rate.
- St Louis City second half goals at home: 1.1 per match (total 1.8 - 0.7 first half)
- FC Dallas second half goals away: 0.8 per match (total 1.7 - 0.9 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.9 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- St Louis City home corners average: 5.5 per match, opponent corners: 4.5
- FC Dallas away corners average: 4.1 per match, opponent corners: 6.5
- Combined average corners: 10.6 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card counts, especially Dallas away, pushing the total over 4.5 cards.
- St Louis City home yellow cards average: 2.6 per match, opponent: 2.4
- FC Dallas away yellow cards average: 2.9 per match, opponent: 2.3
- Combined average cards: 5.0 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53.2% vs our 45% estimate; the home side's attacking output is compromised by Hartel's departure and Löwen's uncertain status, making the favourite price too short.

Prediction history

St Louis City has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

St Louis City has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent over 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 58.8%, with 2.4 expected fulfilments, so actual results slightly exceeded expectation. At home, both such projections were fulfilled, while away they split 1-1.

Recent evidence for St Louis City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Major League Soccer