Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Monza2Udinese3

HT 1–3Sat 29 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 15–12On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 08:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Udinese's unbeaten record at Monza and Monza's poor opening loss make Draw or Udinese the most likely outcome, but the 1.33 odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is Over 2.5 goals at 2.15, with a +8.5 point edge, supported by high-scoring H2H meetings at this venue.

Context

Monza are newly promoted to Serie A and started the season with an away match at Inter.
They lost 4-1 on 22 August 2026, conceding four goals and managing only 30% possession. That result leaves them bottom of the table with zero points and a -3 goal difference. Against Udinese, they may need to tighten defensively to avoid another damaging loss.
- Monza lost 4-1 away to Inter on 22 August 2026.
- Monza had 30% possession and 7 shots in that match.
- Monza are 20th in Serie A with 0 points and a -3 goal difference.
Udinese defender M. Palma is ruled out with a right adductor-longus injury sustained after the Como match.
His confirmed absence forces a change to the back three that started against Como. Runjaic must replace Palma in the Abankwah-Palma-Solet line, which alters Udinese's defensive organisation and personnel for the trip to Monza. The replacement's integration into the three-man defence becomes an immediate test against Monza's attacking rotations.
- Udinese confirmed that Palma sustained a right adductor-longus muscle injury and began rehabilitation.
- Runjaic said the Abankwah-Palma-Solet line used against Como now needs a replacement.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 01:31 · Europe/BucharestUdinese Calcio — medical updatewww.udinese.it · 25 Aug 2026Udinese Calcio — Runjaic pre-match press conferencewww.udinese.it · 28 Aug 2026
Udinese began their Serie A campaign at home against Como.
They led 1-0 at half-time on 22 August 2026 but conceded an equaliser and drew 1-1. Udinese had 17 shots but only 3 on target, while Como had 20 shots and 6 on target. This suggests Udinese can create chances but may struggle to finish them and could be vulnerable to Monza's attacks.
- Udinese drew 1-1 at home to Como on 22 August 2026.
- Udinese led 1-0 at half-time but conceded in the second half.
- Udinese had 17 shots with 3 on target; Como had 20 shots with 6 on target.
Monza head coach Ivan Juric plans to retain the same three defenders used at Inter, with Akinsanmiro only a possible substitute.
This settled defensive structure gives Monza continuity in their back three against Udinese's attacking rotations and physical pressure. The unchanged line reduces the risk of early miscommunication, though it also means Udinese can prepare for a known defensive setup.
- Juric said he expected to field the same defence used at San Siro.
- He said Akinsanmiro could play some minutes but not start.
- Sky’s pre-match projection also retained a three-man Monza defence.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 01:31 · Europe/BucharestTuttoUdinese — Juric pre-match press conferencewww.tuttoudinese.it · 28 Aug 2026Sky Sport — probable line-upssport.sky.it · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

3.10fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 32.3%

0.0ppshort

H2H psychology shows a strong draw tendency (3 of last 5) and Udinese's unbeaten record at Monza, while both teams have limited current-season data, making a stalemate plausible.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows a strong draw tendency (3 of last 5) and Udinese's unbeaten record at Monza, while both teams have limited current-season data, making a stalemate plausible.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 2 Udinese wins
- Monza home H2H: 0W 1D 2L
- Udinese away form: 0W 0D 0L (no away games this season)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's H2H edge and Monza's poor opening loss support the away side avoiding defeat, with the double chance covering both draw and away win.
- Udinese unbeaten in last 5 H2H (2W 3D)
- Monza lost their only Serie A match this season 1-4
- Udinese drew 1-1 at home vs Como
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or UdineseEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half lead rates and the H2H shows a tendency for level scores at the break, making a first-half draw plausible.
- Monza first half results: 33% lead, 20% trail (last 15)
- Udinese first half results: 47% lead, 33% trail (last 15)
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The draw-heavy H2H and balanced first-half stats support a low-probability but plausible Draw/Draw outcome.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall, 2 draws at half-time
- Monza home H2H: 1 draw in 3 matches
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring averages
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monza's high-scoring recent games and the H2H trend of at least two goals in every meeting at Monza support over 2.5 goals.
- Monza's last 5 competitive matches: 3.2 total goals per game
- Udinese's last 5 competitive matches: 2.2 total goals per game
- H2H last 3 at Monza: 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 (all had 2+ goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring form and the H2H record indicates a high frequency of both teams finding the net.
- Monza scored in 4 of last 5 competitive matches
- Udinese scored in 4 of last 5 competitive matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average nearly a goal per first half and the H2H shows early scoring in most meetings, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Monza first half goals: 0.7 per game (last 15)
- Udinese first half goals: 0.7 per game (last 15)
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monza's higher second-half scoring and the general H2H trend of late goals support over 1.5 second-half goals, though Udinese's low second-half output adds uncertainty.
- Monza second half goals: 1.3 per game (last 15)
- Udinese second half goals: 0.4 per game (last 15)
- H2H last 5: second half goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages exactly meet the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 a coin-flip based on recent data.
- Monza average corners: 5.4 per game (last 15)
- Udinese average corners: 4.1 per game (last 15)
- Combined average: 9.5 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around two yellow cards per game, and the combined average slightly exceeds the 3.5 line, supporting over 3.5 cards.
- Monza average yellow cards: 2.0 per game (last 15)
- Udinese average yellow cards: 1.9 per game (last 15)
- Combined average: 3.9 cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

W1-2UdinesevMonzaMay 11, 2025SA

L1-2MonzavUdineseDec 9, 2024SA

D0-0UdinesevMonzaFeb 3, 2024SA

D1-1MonzavUdineseOct 29, 2023SA

D2-2UdinesevMonzaApr 8, 2023SA

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
20	Monza Relegation	1	0	0	1	1-4	0	L
9	Udinese	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D

1pt gap between teamsMonza in relegation zone

Recent Form

Monza

L1-4InterAug 22SA

W3-0AvellinoAug 14CI

D3-3PadovaAug 7FRI

L1-3Aris ThessalonikisJul 30FRI

W2-0GalatasarayJul 24FRI

W4-3PRO VercelliJul 18FRI

L0-2CatanzaroMay 29SER

W2-0CatanzaroMay 24SER

W2-1Juve StabiaMay 19SER

D2-2Juve StabiaMay 16SER

D2-2EmpoliMay 8SER

L2-3MantovaMay 1SER

W1-0ModenaApr 24SER

W3-0SampdoriaApr 17SER

W2-0BariApr 11SER

Udinese

D1-1ComoAug 22SA

W1-0PadovaAug 15CI

W1-0BarcelonaAug 8FRI

W1-0Nottingham ForestAug 8FRI

L0-1TrabzonsporAug 2FRI

D3-3FSV Mainz 05Aug 1FRI

L1-2Shabab Al Ahli DubaiJul 28FRI

L0-2SwanseaJul 24FRI

D2-2Istra 1961Jul 18FRI

L0-1NapoliMay 24SA

L0-1CremoneseMay 17SA

W2-0CagliariMay 9SA

W2-0TorinoMay 2SA

D3-3LazioApr 27SA

L0-1ParmaApr 18SA

Squad & Injuries

Monza

30 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Udinese

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Draw

Draw or Udinese

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Draw or Udinese

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Monza

Udinese

Squad & Injuries

Monza

Udinese