Lazio vs Udinese: result, stats and head-to-head

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H psychology (Lazio winless in last 5 vs Udinese) plus heavy fixture-congestion/rotation motivation factor for Lazio elevates draw probability above the league baseline.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Udinese wins, 1 Udinese home win — Lazio winless vs Udinese in last 5 meetings (2024-2025)
- Lazio rotation risk confirmed: Coppa Italia Final May 13 (16 days away) + 120-min penalty shootout vs Atalanta only 5 days before kickoff
- Lazio missing first-choice GK Provedel and DM Rovella; defender Gila questionable
- Udinese away: 7W-2D-7L, 1.38 GF/game on the road
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combination of H2H psychology trend, Lazio's compromised XI from injuries and Coppa Italia load management, and Udinese's solid away record makes X2 a value-supported coverage outcome.
- Udinese unbeaten in last 4 vs Lazio (2W-2D in last 4 H2H meetings)
- Lazio likely to rotate ahead of Coppa Italia Final on May 13
- Udinese form last 5: LWDWL with one 3-0 win at AC Milan — capable on the road
- Lazio missing key spine: Provedel (GK), Rovella (DM), Gigot, plus Gila doubtful
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or UdineseEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Lazio's rotation/injury context with Udinese's H2H trend and decent away scoring profile, getting the half-goal cushion has clear edge.
- Udinese unbeaten in last 4 H2H meetings (2W-2D)
- Udinese strong away GF rate (22 in 16, 1.38/game)
- Lazio rotation risk pre-Cup Final + GK and DM out
- Lazio home record only 7W-5D-4L this season — beatable
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonUdinese +0.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's pattern of slow starts (trailing 40% of last 10 at HT) plus Udinese's strong first-half resilience supports a non-Lazio first-half outcome.
- Lazio led at HT only 20% of last 10; trailed at HT 40%
- Udinese led at HT 40% of last 10; trailed only 10%
- Lazio first-half goals last 10 avg: 0.3 — slow starters
- Udinese rarely behind at HT in recent games
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or UdineseEstimated chance65%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent form averages, the H2H low-scoring trend, and Lazio's likely rotation/conservative approach pre-Cup Final all point to a low total.
- Lazio last 5: 6 goals scored, 2 conceded — averaging 1.6 total goals/game (well under 2.5)
- Udinese last 5: 5 GF, 2 GA — averaging 1.4 total goals/game
- Last 5 H2H total goals: 2,2,3,3,3 — only 1 of 5 over 2.5
- Lazio season averages 1.0 GF / 0.9 GA; Udinese 1.2 GF / 0.9 GA in last 10
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's tendency to blank against organised opponents combined with Lazio's solid recent defensive run (3 CS in 5) supports BTTS-No.
- Lazio kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 (vs Napoli, Bologna, AC Milan)
- Udinese failed to score in 3 of last 5 (vs Parma, Como, Juventus)
- Udinese season GF/away 22 in 16 — modest 1.38/game
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had at least one team failing to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half profiles are exceptionally low-scoring on multi-match averages, and a fatigued/rotated Lazio is unlikely to start at high tempo.
- Lazio first-half avg last 10: 0.3 scored, 0.5 conceded (combined 0.8/game)
- Udinese first-half avg last 10: 0.6 scored, 0.2 conceded (combined 0.8/game)
- Lazio first-half goals in last 5: 1,0,0,0,1 — only 2 of 5 had any first-half goal
- Udinese first-half goals in last 5: 0,2,0,0,0 — 1H goal-poor pattern
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's high foul/yellow profile combined with Lazio's competitive intensity (Sarri sent off in March vs Milan per intel) sustains a high cards baseline.
- Lazio avg 1.5 yellows/game, 8.8 fouls/game last 10
- Udinese avg 2.2 yellows/game, 13.4 fouls/game last 10 — most disruptive team in sample
- Combined fouls last 10: ~22.2/game — high physical profile
- Last 5 Udinese matches: 2,1,2,5,3 yellows — including 5 yellows vs Genoa
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's persistent foul/card pattern plus low-block away tactics makes 3+ yellows for the visitors the modal expectation.
- Udinese yellows last 5: 2, 1, 2, 5, 3 — 4 of 5 at 2+ yellows
- Udinese 13.4 fouls/game last 10 (highest in sample)
- Already lost Karlstrom to yellow-card suspension — discipline issue confirmed
- Udinese will defend a lower block away — typical context for cards
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostUdinese over 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner volumes are well below typical Serie A averages; combined with a likely cagey low-tempo affair, Under 9.5 is the more probable side, though variance is high (LOW confidence).
- Lazio corners last 10 avg: 3.7/game — low-volume corner team
- Udinese corners last 10 avg: 4.4/game
- Combined avg ~8.1 corners/game — below 9.5 baseline
- Lazio recent corner counts last 5: 0, 6, 7, 1, 1 — heavily skewed low
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' recent shots-on-target volumes fall well under the 9.5 line; defensive shapes from both reduce expected SoT total.
- Lazio SoT/game avg: 4.2 last 10
- Udinese SoT/game avg: 3.4 last 10
- Combined avg ~7.6 SoT/game — comfortably below 9.5
- Udinese kept opponents to 1-3 SoT in 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Lazio	33	12	11	10	34-30	47	WLDWW
11	Udinese	33	12	7	14	38-43	43	LWDWL

Lazio3Udinese3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

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Lazio

Udinese

Squad & Injuries

Lazio

Udinese