Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Udinese0Parma1

HT 0–0Sat 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–150%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 10–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Apr 2026, 14:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Udinese are in strong form (3-0 Milan, 2-0 Genoa) at home against a Parma side winless in 5 with league-worst attacking output (22 goals, 0.69/game away).

Back the first-half draw at 1.95 for value—both teams historically level at half-time (70% Parma, 60% H2H pattern)—or treat under 2.5 goals as fair value given Parma's offensive impotence and Udinese's recent defensive solidity.

Context

Parma winless in last 5 league matches (2L, 3D)
- H2H: Udinese won last 3 meetings; Parma's last win vs Udinese was 2020
Udinese home: 16 goals scored in 16 home games (1.0/game), 19 conceded (1.19/game)
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had 2 or fewer total goals
Parma leading at HT 20%, drawing 70%, trailing 10% over last 10
- Combined first-half goal average: ~0.8 goals per game for both teams
Parma average 4.6 corners per game last 10; recent away matches show 1-3 corners
- Combined corner average ~8.4 per game based on last 10 form

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

−0.5ppshort

Parma's season-worst 0.72 goals/game away (11 in 16) and Udinese missing Davis create a legitimate low-scoring foundation, but the market has already priced it fairly. HIGH confidence still justifies the play at fair odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Udinese's superior recent form, H2H dominance (3 straight wins), and Parma's attacking impotence on the road (0.69 goals/away game) combine to favor a home win, though Davis's absence and Udinese's inconsistent home record temper confidence.
- Udinese form WDWLD last 5, including 3-0 vs Milan and 2-0 vs Genoa (Apr 2026)
- Parma winless in 5 league matches (DDLLD), scoring only 3 goals in that run
- H2H last 3 meetings: Udinese won all 3 (2-0, 1-0, 3-2)
- Udinese home record mediocre (5W-5D-6L) but Parma away attack is dire (11 goals in 16 away games)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUdineseEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Parma's 31% away win rate this season, compounded by a 5-match winless run and 0 wins in the last 3 H2H meetings, makes a Parma away victory highly unlikely, strongly favoring the home/draw double chance.
- Parma have won only 5 of 16 away games this season (31%)
- Parma winless in last 5 league matches (2L, 3D)
- H2H: Udinese won last 3 meetings; Parma's last win vs Udinese was 2020
- Udinese home: W5-D5-L6 but form trending up with 3-0 Milan and 2-0 Genoa wins
BetBugs · Double ChancelostUdinese or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Parma drawing at half-time in 70% of recent games, Udinese in 50%, and a H2H pattern of 60% level at the break, plus extremely low first-half goal averages from both sides, a half-time draw is by far the most probable first-half outcome.
- Udinese leading at HT 40%, drawing 50%, trailing 10% over last 10
- Parma leading at HT 20%, drawing 70%, trailing 10% over last 10
- Combined first-half goal average: ~0.8 goals per game for both teams
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings level at half-time (60%)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance58%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Parma's league-worst attack (23 goals in 32 games), Udinese losing their top scorer Davis, and a H2H pattern of low-scoring affairs makes under 2.5 goals the strongest statistical play in this fixture.
- Parma season total: 23 goals in 32 games (0.72/game); 11 in 16 away (0.69/game)
- Udinese home: 16 goals scored in 16 home games (1.0/game), 19 conceded (1.19/game)
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had 2 or fewer total goals
- Udinese missing striker Davis (10 goals); Parma average only 3.0 SOT per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5 games, conceding 0.8/game recently) paired with Parma's historically poor away attack creates a strong probability that at least one team — most likely Parma — fails to score.
- Parma failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches (0 vs Fiorentina, 0 vs Cremonese away loss context, limited SOT)
- Udinese kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches (vs Milan 3-0, Genoa 2-0, Como 0-0)
- Parma averaging 0.69 goals per away game this season (11 in 16)
- Parma's shots on target average is just 3.0 per game over last 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Udinese's recent defensive form (3 clean sheets in 5) directly intersects with Parma's historically weak attack, particularly on the road where they average under 0.7 goals per game, making a home clean sheet a viable outcome.
- Udinese: 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches (60%), conceding 0.8 goals/game last 10
- Parma away: 11 goals in 16 away games (0.69/game); 0 SOT vs Fiorentina away
- Parma have only 23 goals all season — joint-lowest in Serie A alongside relegated sides
- Parma's last 5 form includes two 0-0 draws and a 0-2 loss (3 blanks in 5)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostParma not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Parma's away goal output (0.69/game) combined with their dire shot accuracy (3.0 SOT/game) and Udinese's stingy recent defensive record creates a realistic probability of Parma being blanked entirely.
- Parma: 11 goals in 16 away games this season (0.69/game)
- Parma failed to score in recent away matches vs Fiorentina (0-0) and have 0 SOT in that game
- Udinese conceded 0.2 first-half goals and 0.8 total per game over last 10
- Parma's season average of 3.0 SOT per match is among the lowest in Serie A
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostParma under 0.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very few first-half goals (combined average ~0.8 per game), and with 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings level at the break, a goalless first half is the single most likely first-half outcome.
- Udinese: 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.2 conceded per game over last 10 (combined 0.8 FH goals)
- Parma: 0.4 first-half goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game over last 10 (combined 0.8 FH goals)
- Parma leading at HT only 20% of games; Udinese trailing at HT only 10%
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were level at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate modest corner counts (combined ~8.4 average), and Parma's away corner production has been particularly low in recent road games, supporting an under 9.5 corners outcome.
- Udinese average 3.8 corners per game last 10; concede ~6.0 opponent corners
- Parma average 4.6 corners per game last 10; recent away matches show 1-3 corners
- Combined corner average ~8.4 per game based on last 10 form
- Parma had just 1 corner vs Fiorentina away and 2 vs Lazio away recently
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's physical, low-possession style generates 14.1 fouls and 2.5 yellows per game, and combined with Parma's 1.8 average, the ~4.3 combined yellow card average comfortably supports over 3.5 total cards.
- Udinese average 2.5 yellow cards per game over last 10 matches
- Parma average 1.8 yellow cards per game; combined average ~4.3 yellows
- Combined fouls average: Udinese 14.1 + Parma 11.4 = 25.5 per game
- Udinese had 5 yellows vs Genoa and 3 vs Juventus in recent matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-2ParmavUdineseNov 29, 2025SA

W1-0UdinesevParmaMar 1, 2025SA

W2-3ParmavUdineseSep 16, 2024SA

D2-2ParmavUdineseFeb 21, 2021SA

W3-2UdinesevParmaOct 18, 2020SA

Udinese unbeaten in 5 meetingsUdinese: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Udinese	32	12	7	13	38-42	43	WDWLD
14	Parma	32	8	12	12	23-40	36	DDLLD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Udinese

W3-0AC MilanApr 11SA

D0-0ComoApr 6SA

W2-0GenoaMar 20SA

L0-1JuventusMar 14SA

D2-2AtalantaMar 7SA

W3-0FiorentinaMar 2SA

L0-1BolognaFeb 23SA

L1-2SassuoloFeb 15SA

L1-2LecceFeb 8SA

W1-0AS RomaFeb 2SA

Parma

D1-1NapoliApr 12SA

D1-1LazioApr 4SA

L0-2CremoneseMar 21SA

L1-4TorinoMar 13SA

D0-0FiorentinaMar 8SA

D1-1CagliariFeb 27SA

W1-0AC MilanFeb 22SA

W2-1Hellas VeronaFeb 15SA

W1-0BolognaFeb 8SA

L1-4JuventusFeb 1SA

Squad & Injuries

Udinese

8 out

Attackers2/4

×#9

Midfielders10

Defenders6/8

×#13

×#59

×#33

×#13

×#59

×#33

Goalkeeper4

#13 N. Bertola — Thigh Injury

#9 K. Davis — Thigh Injury

#59 A. Zanoli — Knee Injury

#33 J. Zemura — Muscle Injury

#13 N. Bertola — Thigh Injury

#9 K. Davis — Thigh Injury

#59 A. Zanoli — Knee Injury

#33 J. Zemura — Muscle Injury

Parma

4 out

Attackers7

Midfielders2/14

×#25

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

#25 B. Cremaschi — Injury

M. Frigan — Knee Injury

#25 B. Cremaschi — Injury

M. Frigan — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Parma under 4.5

Under 2.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Udinese

Parma

Squad & Injuries

Udinese

Parma