Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Udinese0Cremonese1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 10–7On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Udinese’s unbeaten H2H run and Cremonese’s poor away form make the home side strong favorites to avoid defeat, with Double Chance (1.40) offering the clearest value.

Expect a low-scoring match, with Under 2.5 goals (1.75) and Both Teams to Score – No (1.95) also presenting edges. The first-half draw (2.05) is a solid pick given both teams’ slow starts.

Context

Giampaolo replaced Davide Nicola after a 4-1 home loss to Fiorentina on 16 March.
- Cremonese have won only 1 of their last 5 matches under Giampaolo (W1 D1 L3).
- The team still averages just 0.7 goals per game this season, showing no attacking uptick.
Last 4 H2Hs: 2 Udinese wins, 2 draws, with Udinese scoring 7 and conceding 2.
- Cremonese failed to score in 2 of those 4 matches.
- The most recent meeting in October 2025 ended 1-1, but Udinese controlled possession.
Cremonese away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses, with 13 goals scored and 28 conceded.
- They have blanked in 8 of 18 away fixtures, including against relegation rivals.
- Average away possession is 49.3%, but they manage only 3.7 shots on target per game.
Home clean sheets vs Torino (2-0), Fiorentina (3-0), and AS Roma (1-0) in recent months.
- Udinese conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average in their last 15 matches.
- They have lost only 2 of their last 8 home matches (W4 D2 L2).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's strong H2H dominance and superior recent form, combined with Cremonese's poor away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Udinese are unbeaten in last 4 H2Hs (2W, 2D), conceding only 2 goals total.
- Udinese form last 5: W-W-D-L-W (10 pts); Cremonese: W-L-L-D-L (4 pts).
- Cremonese away record: 4W-3D-11L, 13 goals scored, 28 conceded in 18 matches.
- Udinese home record: 6W-5D-7L, but recent home wins vs Torino (2-0) and Fiorentina (3-0).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUdineseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Udinese's unbeaten H2H run and Cremonese's struggles on the road, Udinese avoiding defeat is highly probable.
- Udinese have not lost any of the last 4 H2Hs (2W, 2D).
- Cremonese have won only 4 of 18 away matches this season.
- Udinese have lost only 2 of their last 8 home matches (W4 D2 L2).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostUdinese or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's tendency to draw at halftime and Cremonese's poor first-half record make a level score at the break the most probable outcome.
- Udinese half-time results: 40% lead, 53% draw, 7% trail.
- Cremonese half-time results: 13% lead, 40% draw, 47% trail.
- Last 4 H2Hs half-time: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 — 2 draws, 2 Udinese leads.
- Udinese first-half goals average: 0.6; Cremonese: 0.1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Udinese's superior second-half performance and Cremonese's defensive fragility after the break give the home side an edge to win the second period.
- Udinese second-half goal difference: +0.7 per game (0.9 scored, 0.2 conceded).
- Cremonese second-half goal difference: -0.8 per game (0.6 scored, 1.4 conceded).
- Udinese won second half in 6 of last 15 matches; Cremonese lost second half in 8 of last 15.
- H2H: Udinese won second half in 2 of last 4 meetings.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableUdineseEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Udinese win is a plausible pattern given both teams' tendencies, though the exact sequence carries lower confidence.
- Udinese drew at halftime in 53% of matches, won full-time in 39%.
- Cremonese drew at halftime in 40%, lost full-time in 53%.
- Last 4 H2Hs: 2 draws at halftime, Udinese won full-time in 2 of those.
- Udinese have come from behind to win only once in last 15.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/UdineseEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H history and Cremonese's offensive struggles point toward a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.
- Last 4 H2Hs: 1-1, 3-0, 3-1, 0-0 — 3 of 4 had under 2.5 goals.
- Udinese home matches average 2.1 total goals (18 goals for, 20 against in 18 games).
- Cremonese away matches average 2.3 total goals (13 for, 28 against in 18 games).
- Cremonese have scored only 0.7 goals per game on average this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cremonese's poor scoring record, especially away, and Udinese's recent defensive solidity suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Cremonese failed to score in 3 of last 4 H2Hs.
- Udinese kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches (vs Cagliari, Torino, AC Milan).
- Cremonese have scored only 13 goals in 18 away matches this season.
- Udinese conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Udinese's home clean sheet rate is modest, Cremonese's away scoring woes increase the chance of a home shutout.
- Udinese kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
- Cremonese failed to score in 3 of last 4 H2Hs.
- Udinese home clean sheets: 5 in 18 matches this season.
- Cremonese away scoring: 13 goals in 18 matches, blank in 8 of those.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCremonese not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and H2H history shows tight early periods, making a goalless first half likely.
- Udinese first-half goals average: 0.6 per game; conceded: 0.2.
- Cremonese first-half goals average: 0.1 per game; conceded: 0.9.
- Last 4 H2Hs first-half goals: 0, 1, 1, 0 — 2 of 4 had 0 first-half goals.
- Udinese led at halftime in only 40% of matches; Cremonese trailed in 47%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring patterns and H2H history strongly indicate at least one goal after halftime.
- Udinese second-half goals: 0.9 per game on average (1.5 total - 0.6 first half).
- Cremonese second-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game on average (1.7 total - 0.9 first half).
- Last 4 H2Hs all had at least one second-half goal.
- Udinese scored in second half in 10 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and H2H history shows low totals, supporting an under 9.5 corners outcome.
- Udinese average corners per game: 4.7; opponent corners: 5.5 — total 10.2.
- Cremonese average corners per game: 3.9; opponent corners: 5.7 — total 9.6.
- Last 4 H2Hs corners: 9, 8, 11, 7 — 3 of 4 under 9.5.
- Udinese home corners average: 5.1; Cremonese away corners average: 3.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Consistent card counts in H2H meetings and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a match with at least 4 cards.
- Udinese average yellow cards: 2.0 per game; opponent: 1.7 — total 3.7.
- Cremonese average yellow cards: 1.6 per game; opponent: 1.7 — total 3.3.
- Last 4 H2Hs cards: 4, 3, 5, 4 — all over 3.5.
- Cremonese average 14.5 fouls per game, Udinese 13.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 0W

D1-1CremonesevUdineseOct 20, 2025SA

W3-0UdinesevCremoneseApr 23, 2023SA

W1-3CremonesevUdineseDec 29, 2022FRI

D0-0CremonesevUdineseOct 30, 2022SA

Udinese unbeaten in 4 meetingsUdinese: 2 clean sheets2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Udinese	36	14	8	14	45-46	50	WWDLW
18	Cremonese Relegation - Serie B	36	7	10	19	30-53	31	WLLDL

19pt gap between teamsCremonese in relegation zone

Recent Form

Udinese

W2-0CagliariMay 9SA

W2-0TorinoMay 2SA

D3-3LazioApr 27SA

L0-1ParmaApr 18SA

W3-0AC MilanApr 11SA

D0-0ComoApr 6SA

W2-0GenoaMar 20SA

L0-1JuventusMar 14SA

D2-2AtalantaMar 7SA

W3-0FiorentinaMar 2SA

L0-1BolognaFeb 23SA

L1-2SassuoloFeb 15SA

L1-2LecceFeb 8SA

W1-0AS RomaFeb 2SA

W3-1Hellas VeronaJan 26SA

Cremonese

W3-0PisaMay 10SA

L1-2LazioMay 4SA

L0-4NapoliApr 24SA

D0-0TorinoApr 19SA

L0-1CagliariApr 11SA

L1-2BolognaApr 5SA

W2-0ParmaMar 21SA

L1-4FiorentinaMar 16SA

L1-2LecceMar 8SA

L0-2AC MilanMar 1SA

L0-3AS RomaFeb 22SA

D0-0GenoaFeb 15SA

L1-2AtalantaFeb 9SA

L0-2InterFeb 1SA

L0-1SassuoloJan 25SA

Squad & Injuries

Udinese

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Cremonese

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Udinese or Draw

Udinese

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Over 3.5

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Udinese

Cremonese

Squad & Injuries

Udinese

Cremonese