Athletic Club MG1Gremio Novorizontino SP4

HT 0–1Mon 24 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 10–17On targetOn target 1–8CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Novorizontino's perfect H2H record and promotion push make them slight favourites, but the value is thin at 2.50.

The first-half draw at 1.95 offers a small edge, while the under 2.5 goals market is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Official club report on 21 August frames the run-in around promotion.
- They sit fourth on 37 points, three points ahead of Athletic.
- A win would strengthen their position in the promotion race.
They won 3-0 against America Mineiro on 20 August.
- The match is scheduled for 24 August, giving only four days rest.
- No confirmed rotation announcement, but the risk is present.
H2H results: 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 in Novorizontino's favour.
- Athletic scored only once across the three meetings.
- All three matches had under 2.5 goals.
Home record: 5W-4D-3L, 11 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- They average 1.67 total goals per home match.
- Recent home results include wins over Criciuma and Avai.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Gremio Novorizontino SP

1.43fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 70%

−2.0ppshort

Novorizontino's unbeaten H2H record and Athletic's tendency to draw at home support the double chance, but the odds offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H dominance and stronger away form give Novorizontino the edge, though Athletic's solid home record keeps confidence medium.
- Novorizontino have won all 3 H2H meetings, scoring 5 and conceding 1.
- Novorizontino away record: 4W-5D-3L, 18 goals scored, 9 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Athletic home record: 5W-4D-3L, 11 goals scored, 9 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Novorizontino are 4th with 37 points, pushing for promotion; Athletic are 9th with 34 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's unbeaten H2H record and Athletic's tendency to draw at home support the double chance.
- Novorizontino have not lost to Athletic in 3 meetings (3 wins).
- Novorizontino away losses: only 3 in 12 away games.
- Athletic home wins: 5 in 12, with 4 draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates and H2H first halves were level or low-scoring.
- Athletic led at half-time in only 27% of matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 53%.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 13%, drew in 54%.
- H2H: first halves ended 0-0, 0-0, 1-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Novorizontino win fits their H2H pattern, but specific HT-FT combos are inherently low probability.
- Novorizontino have won 3 of 3 H2H meetings, often scoring late.
- Athletic have drawn at half-time in 53% of matches.
- Novorizontino have won 10 of 23 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and H2H history shows low-scoring affairs, making under 2.5 likely.
- Athletic average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match overall.
- Athletic home matches: 11 goals scored, 9 conceded in 12 games (1.67 total goals per game).
- Novorizontino away matches: 18 goals scored, 9 conceded in 12 games (2.25 total goals per game).
- H2H: all three meetings had 2 or fewer goals (2-1, 1-0, 2-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent defensive records and H2H suggests Athletic struggle to score against Novorizontino.
- Athletic have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Novorizontino have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H: Athletic scored in only 1 of 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Athletic, and H2H first halves have been tight.
- Athletic average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Novorizontino average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- H2H: first-half goals were scarce (0-0, 0-0, 1-0 at half-time).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Teams tend to open up later, and H2H shows second-half goals, but confidence is low due to small sample.
- Athletic average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.0 total - 0.3 first half).
- Novorizontino average 0.9 second-half goals scored (1.7 total - 0.8 first half).
- H2H: all goals in the 2-1 and 2-0 wins came in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, pushing the total above 9.5, but variance is high.
- Athletic average 4.5 corners per match, concede 5.8 opponent corners.
- Novorizontino average 6.0 corners per match, concede 5.5 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners: 10.5 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card counts, and the competitive nature of the match could push cards over 4.5.
- Athletic average 2.3 yellow cards per match, opponents average 2.1.
- Novorizontino average 1.9 yellow cards per match, opponents average 2.3.
- Combined average cards: 4.2 per match, but recent matches show higher totals.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34% vs our estimate 33% leaves no value; Athletic's home form is solid but not enough to overcome H2H dominance.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Gremio Novorizontino SP has fulfilled 2 of 4 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 45.8%, with expected fulfilled predictions of 1.8, so they slightly exceeded expectation. In missed predictions, they lost once and drew once, with no wins.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B