Avai2Sport Recife1

HT 0–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 19–13On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 10:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the double chance (Sport Recife or draw) at 1.40 — Sport Recife have lost only 3 of 22 league matches and Avaí have won just 5 of 21.

Both teams to score (Yes) at 1.78 also offers a small edge, but avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals market, which is heavily overpriced.

Context

Sport Recife's last five league results: WWDDD.
- They have lost only 3 of 22 league matches this season.
- Avaí have won only 5 of 21 league matches.
Avaí home record: 4W 3D 4L.
- They have won 2 of their last 3 home matches.
- Sport Recife away record: 4W 4D 2L.
Last four H2H results: 2-2, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2.
- Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 matches.
- The most recent meeting in April 2026 ended 2-2.
Sport Recife are 6th with 35 points, inside the playoff zone.
- The new format promotes 1st and 2nd directly, with 3rd-6th entering playoffs.
- Avaí are 18th with 20 points, fighting relegation.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average around half a goal each in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely but not at the odds offered.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's stronger league position and away form, combined with Avai's relegation struggle, give the visitors a moderate edge.
- Sport Recife are 6th with 35 points, Avai 18th with 20 points (gap 15).
- Sport Recife away record: 4W 4D 2L, Avai home record: 4W 3D 4L.
- Sport Recife last 5 form: WWDDD (unbeaten), Avai last 5: LLWDW.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSport RecifeEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's low loss rate and Avai's poor overall record make the double chance for the away side highly likely.
- Sport Recife have lost only 3 of 22 league matches this season.
- Avai have won only 5 of 21 matches.
- Sport Recife away losses: 2 in 10, Avai home losses: 4 in 11.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Sport RecifeEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams having similar first-half scoring rates and a tendency for draws at the break.
- Avai leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing 40%.
- Sport Recife leading at half time in 40%, trailing 27%.
- Both teams average 0.5 first half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Sport Recife win is a plausible but low-probability scenario given the teams' patterns.
- Sport Recife often start slowly: 40% leading at half time, but strong second half.
- Avai have drawn at half time in 33% of matches.
- Sport Recife have won 8 of 22 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Sport RecifeEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent head-to-head trend and both teams' moderate scoring rates support a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings had at least 3 goals.
- Avai average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Sport Recife average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and recent head-to-head meetings often see both sides find the net.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 4 meetings.
- Avai scored in 14 of 21 league matches (67%).
- Sport Recife scored in 18 of 22 league matches (82%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around half a goal each in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Avai first half goals: 0.5 per match, conceded 0.6.
- Sport Recife first half goals: 0.5 per match, conceded 0.5.
- Combined first half goal rate: about 1.0 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the moderate total goal expectation, the second half could see enough action to exceed 1.5 goals, but confidence is low.
- Avai average 1.3 total goals per match, Sport Recife 1.2.
- Second half tends to see more goals as teams push for results.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings had at least 3 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Avai average 3.5 corners per match, concede 6.5 (opponent corners).
- Sport Recife average 5.0 corners per match, concede 5.0.
- Combined average corners: around 10 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is just below 4.5, but the competitive nature of the match could push it over.
- Avai average 1.7 yellow cards per match, Sport Recife 2.7.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.4 per match.
- Both teams average around 13.8 fouls per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% matches our estimate exactly; no value cushion and the away win is already fairly priced.

Prediction history

Avai has been moderately reliable when projected over 4.5 cards

Avai's over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 3 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 57.5%, with an expected 3.5 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is slightly below expectation. At home, Avai has fulfilled 1 of 2 such projections, while away they have fulfilled 2 of 4.

Recent evidence for Avai6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B