CRB AL0Gremio Novorizontino SP0

HT 0–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 20–7On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 02:44 · Europe/Bucharest

CRB's strong form and home H2H edge make them unlikely to lose, but the only clear betting value is Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 (+6-point edge).

Avoid the first-half goals and BTTS markets, which are priced at or below fair value.

Context

CRB last 5: WWWWD, 8 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Novorizontino last 5: LWLWL, 5 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- CRB have won three straight league matches before this fixture.
CRB home H2H vs Novorizontino: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.
- Last home meeting: CRB 4-0 Novorizontino (26 Jul 2025).
- Overall H2H is even at 4 wins each, but the split is venue-driven.
Novorizontino away last 5: W, L, L, W, L.
- They have conceded in four of those five away games.
- Only one away clean sheet in that span.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

CRB's strong first-half scoring tendency and Novorizontino's vulnerability early make a first-half goal highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's strong recent form and home H2H edge outweigh Novorizontino's higher league position, making a home win the most likely single outcome.
- CRB home record: 4W-2D-4L, 18 goals scored, 14 conceded in 10 home matches
- CRB last 5 form: WWWWD (4W-1D), scoring 8 and conceding 3
- H2H at Rei Pelé: CRB won 3 of 4 home meetings, including 4-0 in Jul 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCRB ALEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's home form and H2H dominance at Rei Pelé make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- CRB home record: 4W-2D-4L, 18 goals scored, 14 conceded in 10 home matches
- CRB last 5 form: WWWWD (4W-1D), scoring 8 and conceding 3
- H2H at Rei Pelé: CRB won 3 of 4 home meetings, including 4-0 in Jul 2025
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCRB AL or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's strong first-half performance and Novorizontino's tendency to start slowly give CRB an edge in the first half.
- CRB led at halftime in 60% of matches
- Novorizontino trailed at halftime in 20% and led in 27%
- CRB first half goals: 1.0 average vs Novorizontino first half goals conceded: 0.6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCRB ALEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While CRB often lead at halftime, converting that into a full-time win is less certain, making HT/FT double a low-probability but plausible outcome.
- CRB led at halftime in 60% of matches and won 60% of those
- Novorizontino trailed at halftime in 20% and lost 60% of those
- CRB home record: 4W-2D-4L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCRB AL / CRB ALEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have produced goals, supporting over 2.5.
- CRB home matches average 3.2 total goals (18 scored + 14 conceded in 10 games)
- Novorizontino away matches average 2.45 total goals (18 scored + 9 conceded in 11 games)
- H2H last 3 meetings: 1-1, 3-0, 4-0 (average 3.0 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- CRB home: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 8 of 10
- Novorizontino away: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 6 of 11
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's strong first-half scoring tendency and Novorizontino's vulnerability early make a first-half goal highly likely.
- CRB first half goals: 1.0 average, first half goals conceded: 0.6 average
- Novorizontino first half goals: 0.7 average, first half goals conceded: 0.6 average
- CRB led at halftime in 60% of matches, Novorizontino led in 27%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the combined average is close to 1.5, making over 1.5 a reasonable bet.
- CRB second half goals: 0.6 average, second half goals conceded: 0.7 average
- Novorizontino second half goals: 0.8 average, second half goals conceded: 0.4 average
- Combined second half average: 1.25 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, and the combined average exceeds 9.5, supporting over 9.5 corners.
- CRB home corners: 5.4 average, opponent corners: 5.2 average
- Novorizontino away corners: 5.2 average, opponent corners: 5.4 average
- Combined average corners: 10.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a healthy number of shots on target, and the combined average is well above 8.5.
- CRB shots on target: 5.8 average, opponent shots on target: 5.0 average
- Novorizontino shots on target: 5.0 average, opponent shots on target: 4.0 average
- Combined average shots on target: 10.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards is close to 4, making over 3.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- CRB yellow cards: 2.1 average, opponent yellow cards: 2.0 average
- Novorizontino yellow cards: 1.8 average, opponent yellow cards: 2.0 average
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% vs our 45% estimate leaves only a 3-point edge, below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Prediction history

CRB AL has struggled to clear 9.5 corners in recent matches

CRB AL has fulfilled the Over 9.5 corners prediction in only 2 of 7 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 55.7%, but the actual fulfilment rate is just 29%. Notably, at home CRB AL has only 1 fulfilment in 4 matches, while away they have 1 in 3, indicating no strong location advantage.

Recent evidence for CRB AL7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B